The Men Who Look Like GOATS: Picking the Barclay Final
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"We come to it at last, the great battle of our time." - Gandalf the White
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At long last, it's Nadal-Federer in a big-time final again.
Forget the NFL (at least the early games), and tune in today at 12:30 p.m. Eastern time for the clash of No. 1 vs. No. 2 for the year-end championship and temporary bragging rights in a rivalry which Nadal currently owns 14-7.
I actually put some thought into this beyond my initial gut reaction, even though in the first six days of this tournament, that strategy has netted me a 14-2 picking record (.875).
The two losses on my docket both came by picking Nadal to fall, first against Andy Roddick, then against Novak Djokovic.
Thus, I want to pick him here just so I don't play the fool to him three times in a week. But going with your gut only lasts so long, especially when Federer is not only involved, but also red-hot on the court.
He's 64-13 on the year now, second-most wins on the tour to Nadal, and since falling in the quarterfinals at Wimbledon, he's got a white-hot 34-4 (.894), a better winning percentage than Nadal (24-4, .857) over the same stretch of time.
Nadal has won six of the last seven match-ups between the two, but in this format, Federer is 2-0 all-time. What really strikes me however, is the rest and recuperation aspect of it all.
Federer played later in the day Saturday, but he needed barely more than an hour to hammer Novak Djokovic 6-1, 6-4. Nadal played earlier, but it took him three hours and eight minutes to knock off a stubborn Andy Murray.
For all the glory he's put forth in 2010, it's still been a long year for Nadal, with all the extra attention, media requests, etc. that go with being the No. 1 player in the world.
Federer has had just a bit less of that this year, although he's by no means flown under the radar, but he knows what it's like to parcel out your time and still be fresh at year's end, as he's taken the crown at this event four different times and sports an all-time mark of 33-7.
So the prediction. Nadal takes the first set on pure adrenaline, Federer the second on smart baseline play and Federer makes the Australian Open the must-see event of 2011 by winning a tie-break third.
Winner: FEDERER
What's on your mind?
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Posted by
Nick on
11/28/2010 8:50:05 AM
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