By Richard Pagliaro | Friday, January 30, 2015
Serena Williams carries a 16-2 record against Maria Sharapova, including 15 consecutive wins, into the Australian Open final.
Photo credit: corleve
Tennis is a numbers game.
Problem solver Serena Williams confronts a symmetrical storyline in the Australian Open final.
The top seed defeated 19-year-old Madison Keys in the semifinals to set up her 19th meeting with Maria Sharapova where she will play for her 19th career Grand Slam championship.
For the 33-year-old Williams, every Slam final is another major step up the ladder of tennis immortality. A 19th major would put Williams ahead of Chris Evert and Martina Navratilova and behind only Steffi Graf, who won 22 major titles, on the Open Era leader list.
Numbers tell a different story for Sharapova. Williams leads Sharapova in their head-to-head, 16-2, and has won their last 15 straight. The sight of Sharapova on the opposite side of the net brings out the best in Williams and evokes miserable endings for Sharapova.
"I think my game matches up well against her. I love playing her," Williams said. "I think it's fun. I love her intensity. For whatever reason, I love playing. I just have the time of my life."
It hasn't exactly been a blast for her opponent.
This is an unsettling match for Sharapova because she can't play tennis on her terms against Williams. Maria commands the center of the court and plays proactive tennis against most women, but she's often forced to play reactive points while dragged to the edges against the faster Serena, who has the edge in running rallies.
The Roland Garros champion said Williams' explosiveness has compelled her into over-aggressive shotmaking in the past.
"[Serena's] power and her aggressiveness, I think that's always made me a little bit too aggressive, maybe going for a little bit more than I had to," Sharapova said. "She's great at making players hit that shot that you don't necessarily have to go for. Maybe going for a little too much, going on the line. It's been a really difficult matchup for me, but, you know, I am a competitor. I will go out and I will do everything I can to try to change that result around."
It's all added up to more than a decade of misery so how can Sharapova turn it round for one match?
Coach Sven Groeneveld may take a page from Ana Ivanovic's playbook in shifting Sharapova's tactics for the final. Ivanovic played heavy shots deep down the middle to jam Serena and deny her access to angles, and stepped inside the baseline to attack second serves throughout her fourth-round upset of the world No. 1 last year. It's the same tactic Garbine Muguruza employed eliminating Williams from the 2014 Roland Garros second round.
When she's tight, Williams' footwork is not as sharp and she's not as quick to step around the deep ball right at her feet. The problem with playing into Williams' wheelhouse is if you don't maintain depth, she will detonate the point.
Ten years ago, the pair played one of their most exciting matches in the Australian Open semifinals. Serving for the final, Sharapova had match points at 5-4 in the third set. Serena smacked an inside-out forehand return winner to save a match point and ignite a dramatic, 2-6, 7-5, 8-6 comeback victory. They've played 30 sets since then and Williams has won 28 of them, ruthlessly shredding the suggestion of any authentic rivarly between the world's two most famous female athletes.
Sharapova's strength is her relentless baseline aggression predicated on hard, flat blasts. Williams grew up practicing against a similar style training with older sister Venus. She is not fazed by Sharapova's power and is more skilled changing the speed and shape of her shots.
These are two of the most aggressive returners on tour, so connecting on the first serve and defending the second serve is vital. Williams, who has hit a tournament-best 70 aces, is a far more dangerous server and has effectively varied spins, speeds and locations to expand the box.
"It's going to be important for me to get off to a good start, I think," Williams said. "With that being said, if not, I'm going to be ready to fight. I think she really wants this. I can see that she wants to do well. She wants to improve her game. She wants to take it to the next level. So, you know, I have to know that she wants to win probably a lot.
We've seen streaks snapped in this tournament — Tomas Berdych beat Rafael Nadal to end a 17-match slide and Andreas Seppi upset Roger Federer snapping a career-long run of futility — and maybe now, 10 years after she failed to convert match points in their classic Melbourne semifinal, this is Maria's moment to make magic in Oz.
If Sharapova can get off to a fast start, serve 65 percent or better and avoid a penchant for double faults, if she can attack Williams' second serve with vigor and if she can command the center of the court and take the first strike she has a shot to threaten.
The problem with speculation is it can't adequately factor emotion and execution into the equation.
As Nadal said after his loss to Berdych: "If doesn't exist in sports...If never comes."
Williams has owned Sharapova and commanded this stage winning all five of her prior appearances in the final. Despite some sluggish starts, tight play and a hacking cough earlier in the tournament, Williams is the best closer in the game. Serena should be re-energized to regain the title against an opponent who cannot match her movement. Williams has Sharapova's number and should raise the trophy on Saturday.
The Pick: S. Williams in two sets