By Chris Oddo | Friday, January 16, 2015

 

Is it time for top-seeded Novak Djokovic to assert his dominance over the men's field in Australia?

Photo Source: Mark Peterson/Corleve

We’ve all established that Roger Federer has a tricky draw down under this year and Novak Djokovic, well, not so much. But is that really the case, or will the 2015 Australian Open prove the prognosticators wrong once again?

More: Federer Has Extremely Trick Draw in Melbourne

We dig into the nuts and bolts of the Australian Open men’s singles draw, taking you quarter by quarter to the title match, here:

Novak’s Quarter

Novak Djokovic will begin his bid to become the second man in Open Era history to claim a fifth Australian Open title (Roger Federer will try to do the same in the lower half), and many are tabbing the Djoker as the man to beat down under. But the Serb, who was knocked off in the quarterfinals by eventual champion Stan Wawrinka last year, will face more than the stifling Melbourne heat as he tries to carve his way back to the semis.

Djokovic opens with qualifier Aljaz Bedene in the first round, and things stack up to be relatively uncomplicated for the world No. 1 until the round of 16. But should he get there Djokovic could come against hard-serving American John Isner, who has taken two of the last five against him.

In the quarterfinals, if the seeds hold, Djokovic would face Milos Raonic, but a wrench could be throw into that plan if Juan Martin del Potro finds his form, as he is slated to meet Milos Raonic in the round of 16 if he can make the second week.

There are a few other seeds worthy of mention in this section (Gael Monfils, Feliciano Lopez), but it feels like the Djokovic-Raonic/Del Potro quarterfinal is bound to happen, and when it does, no matter which player Djokovic faces, we like the four-time champion to reach the last four.

Pick: Djokovic

First-Rounder to Watch: Juan Martin del Potro vs. Jerzy Janowicz

Wawrinka’s Quarter

Well, is it defending champion Stan Wawrinka’s quarter or is it last year’s US Open champion Kei Nishikori’s quarter?

One thing’s for certain. If it so happens that Wawrinka and Nishikori stay free of the upset bug and end up facing one another in the quarterfinals, there wouldn't be many who come away disappointed by that small bit of predictability.

The odds that we'll get that enticing Nishikori-Wawrinka quarterfinal for a second straight major are certainly good, as the highest possible seed Wawrinka can face before the quarterfinals is the oft-maligned and rarely dependable 16th-seed Fabio Fognini. Nishikori, a former quarterfinalist who bowed out to Rafael Nadal in the round of 16 last year in three grueling sets, could have to face ninth-seeded David Ferrer in the round of 16 (not to mention Nicolas Almagro in the first round), but if Nishikori, as many believe, is truly in the process of blossoming into an elite top-4 talent, neither should stand between him and the quarters.

Pick: Nishikori

First-Rounder to Watch: Sam Querrey vs. Vasek Pospisil

Rafa’s Quarter

2009 champion Rafael Nadal awaits a very tricky first-round encounter with Mikhail Youzhny, a player that owns four career wins against the Spaniard. Youzhny comes in cold, having lost to a qualifier in his only tour-level match this season, but so does Rafa, who has just begun to play matches again after an off-season that featured rehabs from various injuries.

But if Nadal can get through the Youzhny encounter, he very well may be off and running to the semis. There could be an encounter with the antagonistic Lukas Rosol in the third round, and a possible quarterfinal with Tomas Berdych. But Rafa proved at Wimbledon last year that he has Rosol figured out and he owns a 17-match winning streak against Berdych. If somebody other than Rafa is going to come out of this section we are hard-pressed to figure who it can be.

The explosive but flaky Ernests Gulbis? The talented yet whimsical Richard Gasquet? Up-and-coming Kevin Anderson? Leonardo Mayer? We’ll stick with Nadal despite the obvious lack of match play.

Pick: Nadal

First-Rounder to Watch: Ernests Gulbis and Thanasi Kokkinakis

Federer’s Quarter

The Swiss maestro will put his remarkable 11-season Australian Open semifinal streak on the line with a tricky draw. After opening with Yen-Hsun Lu, four-time champion Federer could face Jeremy Chardy in the third round and Tommy Robredo in the fourth. Both players hold massive, recent wins against Federer, but Federer’s current form might be a little too imperious to expect either to ruffle his feathers again.

The real trick could come in the quarterfinals for Federer, when he is slated to meet Andy Murray in the last eight down under for the second consecutive year. Federer defeated Murray last year in four sets, then beat him badly two more times (in Cincinnati and London) last season, but if Murray works his way back to the quarterfinals this year, don’t expect him to be such an easy pushover.

Murray, meanwhile, could find trouble in the form of Grigor Dimitrov in the round of 16. Dimitrov smoked Murray out of Wimbledon last season, and he’s certainly capable of doing it again if he’s on his game.

Pick: Federer

First-Rounder to Watch: Grigor Dimitrov vs. Dustin Brown

Semifinals

Djokovic d. Nishikori, Federer d. Nadal

Final

Djokovic d. Federer