By Richard Pagliaro | Friday, July 31, 2015
"I am confident that I can play, I gonna have a much better second half of the season than what I did in the first six months," said Rafael Nadal
Photo credit: Mutua Madrid Open
As players prepare for the final Grand Slam of the season at the U.S. Open, we highlight the Top 5 ATP disappointments this season—and forecast their immediate future.
Rafael Nadal
2015 Starting Rank: 3
Current Rank: 10
Key Stat: He has reached the quarterfinals nine times or better in 2015—including at Roland Garros where his 39-match winning streak was snapped by Novak Djokovic—but has won only two titles.
Downside: The King of Clay conceded a confidence crisis earlier following his Miami loss to Fernando Verdasco. He's shown signs of nerves with some untimely double faults, he's sometimes been erratic when stretched on his forehand side, his backhand has sometimes lacked depth and he's been prone to drifting into passive positions well behind the baseline under pressure. The former No. 1 is 2-6 vs. Top 10 opponents in 2015 with his last Top 10 win coming against Tomas Berdych in Madrid last May. Struggles have stripped away his aura: Nadal's loss to world No. 102 Dustin Brown was the first time he lost to a qualifier in a Grand Slam.
Upside: Attitude and work ethic remain strong. Following his disappointing Wimbledon loss, Nadal showed his eagerness returning to his beloved red clay in Hamburg, which can serve as a positive springboard for a ranking rise. Given he missed the entire 2014 North American hard-court season (Nadal played only seven matches after the 2014 Wimbledon), the 14-time Grand Slam champion has a major opportunity to make a move over the next two months.
Reaction: "I am confident that I can play, I gonna have a much better second half of the season than what I did in the first six months. I have the motivation to do it, and I feel my mentality and my body ready for it. And then if I'm able to play the full season, I hope to finish in good position of the ranking and then have the chance to start 2016 stronger, no?... I am sure that I gonna keep trying my best." —Rafael Nadal
Forecast: Rafa thrives on repetition. He finds his rhythm and range playing longer rallies and gains confidence from stringing positive points and victories together, which is why this week in Hamburg can help his game and confidence. Nadal has more options and more depth to his game than he's shown. When he's confident, he's skilled closing at net, as he showed winning two Wimbledon titles, and he has shown an ability to attack on serve in the past. During his run to the 2010 U.S. Open crown, Nadal spoke about how a slight grip change and tossing the ball out in front significantly beefed up the pace and bit on serve. He has adopted more aggressive court-positioning at times, reaching the U.S. Open finals in his last three appearances in New York. The question is: Can he make changes and assert his game at upcoming Masters events in Montreal and Cincinnati to regain confidence before the U.S. Open?
Ernests Gulbis
2015 Starting Rank: 13
Current Rank: 80
Key Stats: 11 opening-round losses; 0-13 when losing the first set this season.
Downside: Since his run to the 2014 Roland Garros semifinals, Gulbis has managed just three major wins in five Grand Slam appearances. His funky stiff-armed forehand, which resembles a surfer seeking balance as he rises on the board, can break down, particularly on deep balls directly at him. The volatile Latvian has been poor under pressure this year, posting a 1-5 record in decisive sets. Wild shot selection sometimes more suited for the circus than the ATP, an ornery disposition that can spark implosions when things go wrong and an utter lack of interest in trying to decipher and exploit and opponent's weakness—Gulbis' power-based baseline game is primarily based on trying to hit winners rather than create complications for opponents.
Upside: This is a guy who makes rankings free falls part of his career arc. Gulbis sometimes seems to relish crash-and-burn seasons so he can rise from the ashes and play pressure free. So much Gulbis' grip-and-rip game is predicated on timing and confidence—when you swing as big as unpredictable Ernests does if you're even slightly mis-timing the ball things can get ugly—it's not surprising his career is a story of streakiness. A shoulder injury limited his off-season training leaving him feeling unprepared for 2015; improved health at least gives him a (slightly) more stable foundation.
Reaction: "I think the less thoughts you put into the better. If you start to think over and over again, over analyzing, at least for me it's not good... My happiness really comes from success. I haven't had success for a while. So my happiness level is not very high. And I didn't have a lot of things outside of the court which could fulfill my level of happiness, so of course I feel—I don't want to use any words like depression or any of this kind of stuff. I don't understand depression. I'm always in a decent mood. But the level of happiness I wish was bigger. This I can get through winning. How I can get wins is just basically by putting my base work down to get through it and get through it in practice. I think practice makes perfect. Practice is the only answer." —Ernests Gulbis
Forecast: The good news is Gulbis is defending just 45 ranking points at the U.S. Open. The bad news is he hasn't surpassed the Flushing Meadows second round since a round of 16 result in his 2007 U.S. Open debut. Given his current spiral, it's tough to imagine Gulbis turning it around this year. But then again this is Gulbis a man who often performs best when expectations are lowest.
Grigor Dimitrov
2015 Starting Rank: 11
Current Rank: 16
Key Stat: 2-8 vs. Top 25 opponents in 2015 with both wins coming against Stan Wawrinka.
Downside Watching the ultra-talented Dimitrov's point construction attempts against elite is like listening to a virtuoso violinist trying to stay in tune an orchestra without any sheet music. Dimitrov owns all the shots, but sometimes looks lost about when to play them. Consequently, he can deliver flashes of brilliance without sustaining a winning song. Grand Slam performance and results against Top 20 opponents are barometers of success; Dimitrov's been deeply disappointing in both areas. He followed his French Open first-round loss to Jack Sock with a third-round Wimbledon exit. He hasn't been able to buy a win against Top 25 opponents (aside from Stan Wawrinka) this season, does not always play the score wisely and he's failed to survive the first round in three of four U.S. Open appearances.
Upside: The Bulgarian is one of the best athletes and dazzling shotmakers in the game, who can dictate with his serve and forehand and is a skilled volleyer. His all-court acumen makes him a threat on all surfaces: Dimitrov has won titles on grass, clay and hard courts. Players mature at different times. Andre Agassi and Serena Williams produced some of their best tennis after age 30, Andres Gomez, Goran Ivanisevic and Thomas Johansson all won major titles later in their careers. Dimitrov just celebrated his 24th birthday, he has gotten physically stronger, if he can develop some standard patterns and play points with more care, he has the ability to be a consistent Top 10 player.
Reaction: "It's been a lot of ups and downs so far. If there's a good time for you to sort of see, and sort of see what you need to work on, whatever is ahead of you, you sit down with the team and see what we can do better, I think now is also the good time for it. As I said, I don't feel like I'm too far from it. Of course, the ranking speaks for itself. Of course, if you start winning a few matches here and there, everything would be just different." —Grigor Dimitrov
Forecast: Ending personal and professional partnerships—Dimitrov and Maria Sharapova ended their two-year romance before he split with coach Roger Rasheed—could help Dimitrov clear the cobwebs and inspire a fresh start. He was photographed at a practice session with Hall of Famer Ivan Lendl. For a player who owns a strong first serve, Dimitrov hasn't defended serve well this season. He's 30th on the ATP in service games held (82 percent). If he can vary his serve location and patterns, then he should improve performance in that that key stat.
Marin Cilic
2015 Starting Rank: 9
Current Rank: 9
Key Stat: 3-4 in Masters 1000 events in 2015.
Downside Plagued by a shoulder injury, the U.S. Open champion missed the first two months of the season. The six-foot-six Croatian has been underwhelming in Masters events and vulnerable against lower-ranked opponents: Six of Cilic's 10 losses have come against opponents outside of the Top 25 as he's posted a mediocre 14-10 record.
Upside: Cilic played 75 matches in 2014—the most matches he's ever played in a single season—and perhaps a contributing factor to his lingering shoulder issues. At Wimbledon, he said his shoulder has healed—"I'm injury-free at the moment, hopefully for a long time," Cilic said—his legs should be fresher given his inactivity at the start of the season. He can be imposing on serve, moves extremely well for a big man, has played with more aggression working with coach Goran Ivanisevic and knows he can win a Grand Slam title because he's already done so.
Reaction: "[It] just takes bit of time. Takes some wins obviously. That's most important in any sport, I would guess. I feel the game is there; I'm playing all right on the trainings. It's matter to put it in the matches. Sometimes, and actually very often, things can be working very well, but when you don't have enough wins, just at the crucial moments you might be taking wrong decisions. So I think it's very important for me at the moment to win as many matches as I can."—Marin Cilic
Forecast: Cilic says he's healthy and showed no signs of pain winning a couple of demanding five-setters en route to the Wimbledon quarterfinals. He's played some of his best tennis in Grand Slams, reaching at least the last eight in three of his last four majors. An intelligent, hard-working player, Cilic should be eager to post good results in Montreal and Cincinnati ahead of the pressure of defending his U.S. Open title. He's been tough in tie breaks this season (13-4), which should serve him well on the faster Flushing Meadows hard-court where he can be so tough to break.
Gael Monfils
2015 Starting Rank: 17
Current Rank: 17
Key Stat: He's won three matches in a row just twice—at Monte-Carlo and Roland Garros—in tournaments higher than 250 level.
Downside Sometimes, it looks like Monfils is auditioning for a spot in the NBA slam-dunk contest rather than focusing on winning at ATP match. For a player as explosive as Monfils, it's alarming how many sets he loses by 6-1 scores. He's often too quick to concede sets whether that's due to chronic knee issues, an inability to sustain intensity, or a lack of interest, Monfils does not exhibit the ruthlessness on court required of consistent Top 10 players. Under pressure, one of the game's great pure athletes degenerates into defensive default mode and becomes a 6-foot-4 retriever. Opponents have come to expect lapses, which makes his matches tougher.
Upside: If world rankings were based on entertainment value, Monfils could be world No. 1. It's refreshing to see a player who not only exudes joy on court, but is so eager to share it with fans. He's extremely agile, remains one of the fastest players in the sport, can serve 135 mph, is one of the greatest leapers the game has ever seen and can be an electrifying shotmaker on the run.
Reaction: "I'm honest, but the players are better. I don't win a Grand Slam because opponents are better. There is no mystery. There is no secret. These players are better than us. Of course I need to correct some small details. ... I'm not afraid of time passing by. Quite the opposite. I can tell you that physically I will be at my best and more mature. I do pay attention to some small details. Not enough, but I'm doing better. In my mind I'm more solid. I will try to do some little things in order to win more matches."—Gael Monfils
Forecast: Unpredictability is part of Monfils' charm, but can he summon the discipline and desire necessary for a Top 10 return? Maybe Monfils himself can't answer that question. He managed just three wins during the 2014 North American summer hard-court season then stormed to the U.S. Open quarterfinals, opened a two-set lead on Roger Federer and was a few points from his first Grand Slam semifinal outside of Paris only to fall in five sets. Anything is possible for the elastic Frenchman. If he could ever learn to assert his speed offensively, rather than using it to chase, he could rise again. The most likely scenario is Sliderman will continue to be an entertaining showman with occasional spikes of impressive results.