By Chris Oddo | Tuesday July 28, 2015
Kei Nishikori missed his chance at a maiden Slam title in 2014. Will he get another shot in New York?
Photo Source: AP
Let's start with a bit of history: There were eight first-time major winners in a period of 12 Grand Slams from 2001 Wimbledon to Roland Garros 2004. At the time, nobody had any idea that the jig was about to be up. Oh, but it most certainly was. Since Gaston Gaudio won Roland Garros in 2004, only three players not named Djokovic, Nadal or Murray (Federer won his maiden Slam at Wimbledon in 2003) have broken through to win their first Grand Slam title on the ATP side—Juan Martin del Potro, Stan Wawrinka and Marin Cilic.
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In a period of unprecedented domination--tennis oligarchy?--a member of the big four has won 41 of the last 45 Grand Slam titles, with Federer, Nadal and Djokovic claiming a whopping 38 of them. First-time Grand Slam winners, however cute and endearing they may be to the tennis-watching public, are a nearly extinct animal on planet ATP.
Has the pendulum started to swing the other way?
Last season marked the first time that the ATP saw two first-time Slam winners in the same season since 2003. The rebellion of Stan Wawrinka and Marin Cilic was supposed to open the door for tennis’s generation next but in 2015 things have gone right back to the status quo.
Has the window slammed shut yet again, or is another uprising on the horizon? With Federer and Nadal and Murray struggling to win major titles, how long can Novak Djokovic hold the fort? And, if he doesn't, which players have the best shot at a breakthrough in the near future?
We list the possible candidates, from most likely to least likely, below:
1. Kei Nishikori: Nishikori came within a whisker in 2014, but came out flat and was blasted off the court by a zoning Marin Cilic in the US Open final. That experience will help Nishikori should he find himself back in another major final. And why shouldn’t he be? He’s just 25, he’s got a game that is well-suited for all Slam surfaces, and he’s just getting into his “prime” years. Nishikori has dropped his level a smidgen in 2014, but his next two majors are his best two majors. Maybe his shining moment will come sooner than anybody expects?
Chances: Good
2. Grigor Dimitrov: The Bulgarian’s stock has plummeted since last Wimbledon when he took out Andy Murray to reach the semis. That said, if Dimitrov picks the right coach and continues developing his already world-class game, the potential is there for a breakthrough. Working in Dimitrov’s favor is the fact that he’s good on all surfaces, so all four majors are in play. The next 6 to 18 months are critical for Dimitrov. If he makes the right moves and finds a coach that can help him learn how to properly deploy all the weapons in his toolbox, he could win a major, maybe more than one.
3. Milos Raonic: Raonic has steadily improved since he hit the top ten. He’s already rattling the cages of the ATP’s top players, he just has to continue progressing—and staying healthy. But we just haven’t seen enough big-match prowess from Raonic to be truly confident that he’ll ever win a major. Still, many things are working in his favor, most notably the best serve in tennis. A lot of the tools are there for Raonic, and he’s still relatively young. With his work ethic and determination, he could beat his peers (Dimitrov, Nishikori) to the punch and grab a major before any of them.
Chances: Hard to picture, but possible
4. Tomas Berdych: In our opinion there’s a bit of a drop-off in the probability of Berdych winning a major compared to the probability of Nishikori, Dimitrov or Raonic winning a major. Nishikori has a good shot to do it, and Dimitrov and Raonic have plenty of time to blossom. Berdych, also a former Grand Slam finalist, is running out of time and not making enough headway against the game’s elite. The burly Czech has about two years to put it all together as he’ll turn 30 in September. After a successful start to 2015 that saw him defeat Nadal at the Australian Open, Berdych has faded a bit. He failed to reach the quarters at Roland Garros and Wimbledon and he’s lost eight of nine against the Top 10.
Chances: Slim
5. Nick Kyrgios: It seems like a longshot, given Kyrgios’s current maturity level. But the game is there for him to shock the world at Wimbledon. So is the attitude. Will Kyrgios keep his eyes on the prize and keep striving for greatness?
At his current level of commitment, he’s certainly capable of beating anyone at a major, but to win seven matches and take home a major title, he’ll have to keep evolving as a player, mentally, tactically and physically.
Chances: Slim
6. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Like Berdych, the Frenchman has a very small window to get it done. He’s already 30. But he’s beaten all the big players and has oodles of experience at the majors. It takes magic to win a major, and Tsonga is a magical player. If he can get to peak fitness, it’s possible that he could catch fire and go on a dream run.
Chances: Slimmer than slim
7. Gael Monfils: It’s a long shot, but the magical, mystical Monfils will have three more opportunities to shock the world at Roland Garros.
Chances: Slimmer than slimmer than slim