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By Richard Pagliaro | Wednesday, July 8, 2015

 
Maria Sharapova

World No. 1 Serena Williams holds a commanding 17-2 career edge over Maria Sharapova, including 16 consecutive victories.

Photo credit: CameraSport/Stephen White

We preview the Wimbledon Ladies' semifinals here.

SEE THE COMPLETE ORDER OF PLAY

(20) GarbiƱe Muguruza (ESP) vs. (13) Agnieszka Radwanska (POL)
First Match, Centre Court
Head-to-head: Even, 2-2


The third meeting of the year between the pair pits Radwanska's experience versus Muguruza's explosiveness.

The 2012 finalist used her shrewd court sense, flair for finesse and skill striking low drives down the line to defuse another dangerous young power player, No. 21 Madison Keys, in the quarterfinals. Radwanska combated Keys' 48 winners by playing clean, controlled tennis. She committed just seven unforced errors in a 7-6 (3), 3-6, 6-3 conquest to reach her third SW19 semifinal in the last four years.

Radwanska is the smoother mover, she's adept from all areas of the court and she's the more successful grass-court player. Aga has earned more ranking points with her surge during this grass-court season—reaching the Eastbourne final and Nottingham and Wimbledon semifinals—than she did in the first five months of the season.

The 21-year-old Muguruza may well be nervous stepping onto Centre Court with her first trip to a Grand Slam final on the line. But the Spaniard has played with calm and exuded genuine joy defeating 2012 semifinalist Angelique Kerber, former No. 1 Caroline Wozniacki and French Open semifinalist Timea Bacsinszky.

Agnieszka Radwanska
Muguruza knows she can beat elite players in majors because she's already done it, thrashing world No. 1 Serena Williams at the 2014 Roland Garros. While you can draw paralells between this semifinal and Radwanska's win over Keys, the difference is Muguruza is more balanced off both forehand and backhand wings than the American. If she's quick off the mark, the low ball to the Spaniard's backhand that tormented Keys may not be as effective.

Radwanska's second serve is the most vulnerable shot on the court and Muguruza knows it—she earned a total of 17 break points in her two hard-court victories over the Pole this season. Muguruza is the more powerful player, Radwanska the superior problem solver. If the 6-foot Spaniard can hold her nerve, command the center of the court, attack the Radwanska second serve and play deep down the middle at times to push the counter-puncher into defensive positions behind the baseline, she is capable of pulling off the upset.

(1) Serena Williams (USA) vs. (4) Maria Sharapova (RUS)
Second Match, Centre Court
Head-to-head: Williams leads 17-2


Sharapova is the world's highest-paid female athlete, but she just can't buy a win against her long-time nemesis.

The world No. 1 has treated the five-time Grand Slam champion as a personal punching bag in reeling off 16 straight wins, since she suffered a 4-6, 6-2, 6-4 loss (playing the final set with a strained abdominal) in the WTA Tour Championships final in November, 2004. Since that defeat, a ruthless Serena has won 32 of 35 sets they've played, including a 6-3, 7-6 (5) triumph in the Australian Open final last February dispensing a decade of scar tissue.

They are the two most dangerous returners in the sport, but Williams has unleashed her superior serve and speed around the court to punish the former No. 1.

The primary problem Maria faces in this match-up is Serena does everything better and faster. Despite her dominance of this lopsided match-up, the top seed has a very long memory and does not take Sharapova lightly. Consequently, she has not suffered lapses in nerves and concentration that have contributed to her major losses to lower-ranked players, including Garbine Muguruza, Alize Cornet, Sabine Lisicki, Sloane Stephens and Virgnie Razzano in recent years.

Eleven years ago, the 13th-seeded Sharapova completely overpowered and overwhelmed Williams to dethrone the two-time defending champion with a 6-1, 6-4 triumph in the Wimbledon final. The 17-year-old Sharapova played audacious power tennis to become the second-youngest women to win Wimbledon in the Open Era. Rarely has any woman reduced Serena to sustained stretches of defensive tennis during a Grand Slam final, but Sharapova gave Williams the runaround for much of that final. Sharapova's Wimbledon victory came one month after Anastasia Myskina defeated Elena Dementieva in an all-Russian Roland Garros final, prompting some speculation at the time that the Russian Revolution would eventually depose the Williams sisters. Eleven years later, Williams is producing one of the best seasons of her career and shows no signs of slowing down.

When she sees second serves, Sharapova can try blasting returns deep down the middle to deny Williams angles on her first strike. It's a tactic she used against another big server, CoCo Vandeweghe, in her quarterfinal win. The problem is if she doesn't hit it cleanly, Williams craves pace and can use Sharapova's own power against her.

Riding a 26-match Grand Slam winning streak, Williams is two wins from completing her second Serena Slam and moving even closer to the calendar Grand Slam. Nerves could be a factor. Serena admitted choking in her French Open final win over Lucie Safarova, she was clearly tight in her comeback win over British No. 1 Heather Watson in the third round and was forced to rally from a set down defeating former No. 1 Victoria Azarenka in the quarterfinals.

Still, Serena is serving with command — she hit 17 aces against three double faults and saved seven of eight break points vs. Azarenka backing up a 10-ace, zero double fault performance against sister Venus — and Sharapova's second serve can go kablooey: She has hit a tournament-high 38 double faults. Sharapova must stay close in the early stages to create scoreboard pressure, but Williams should be committed to a fast start and she remains the best closer in the game empowered by her pursuit of history.

 

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