By Richard Pagliaro | Tuesday, January 26, 2016
Gael Monfils has beaten quarterfinal opponent in both of their prior meetings.
Photo credit: Mark Peterson/Corleve
Each day we'll preview and predict results for several must-see Melbourne matches.
Wednesday's complete quarterfinal Order of Play is here.
More: Serena Stomps Sharapova, Roars Into AO Semifinals
Our Day 10 quarterfinal previews are here:
(14) Victoria Azarenka vs. (7) Angelique Kerber
Rod Laver Arena (First match)
Head-to-head: Azarenka leads 6-0
Two primary obstacles Kerber faces against the two-time former champion:
1. The left-hander's crosscourt forehand feeds directly into Azarenka's strength, the jolting two-handed backhand.
2. Kerber hasn't hurt Azarenka from the baseline and hasn't been able to out-grind her either, winning just two of their 14 sets.
This is a rematch of the Brisbane final, which Azarenka won, 6-3, 6-1, earlier this month. Contesting her fifth quarterfinal in her last seven Australian Open apperances, Azarenka has looked more revitalized than her NFL hero, Peyton Manning. The Belarusian opened the tournament with a bang, dispensing a bagel, and has dropped just 11 games en route to the semifinals.
Service speed is one area of vulnerability: Vika has been able to get away with spinning sub-100 mph serves to start rallies picking opponents apart from the baseline. Azarenka leads the tournament in first-serve points won (84 percent), but faces an accurate returner in Kerber, who has broken serve 22 times in four matches.
Every time Azarenka has won an Australian Open quarterfinal, she's gone on to win the title. She hits a heavier ball and has too many weapons to falter here.
The Pick: Azarenka in two sets
Johanna Konta vs. (Q) Zhang Shuai
Rod Laver Arena (Second match)
Head-to-head: Even, 1-1
Seeds fell in record numbers in a wild week one; two inspired insurgents on career-changing runs collide here.
They are two of the top feel-good stories transforming Oz into the Opportunity Slam.
A 133rd-ranked qualifier, Zhang was 0-14 in Grand Slam main-draw matches prior to her stunning first-round upset of second-seeded Simona Halep. Zhang won the hearts of fans with her tearful post-match interview revealing both her resolve and passion.
Zhang is the first qualifier to reach the quarterfinals in Oz since Angelica Gavaldon in 1990. The quality opponents she's conquered on this run—Halep, Alize Cornet, Varvara Lepchenko and Madison Keys—show Zhang has been able to solve any style and she's been efficient doing it. Zhang has won eight of nine sets.
Konta's abbreviated backswings make her strokes look a little unorthodox, but watch her string a series of deep shots together and you see the diligence and intelligence of her point-construction. Last summer, Konta strung together 16 consecutive wins before bowing to Petra Kvitova in the US Open fourth round.
Born in Sydney, the 47th-ranked Briton has beaten Venus Williams and former semifinalist Ekaterina Makarova. But will her three hour, four-minute battle with the 21st-seeded Russian leave Konta too depleted to run with Zhang for three physical sets?
The Pick: Konta in three sets
(2) Andy Murray vs. (8) David Ferrer
Rod Laver Arena (Third match)
Head-to-head: Murray leads 12-6
Often overlooked as a Top 10 presence, Ferrer cannot be underestimated. He is the only quarterfinalist yet to drop a set and is playing for a third trip to the Australian Open semifinals.
Murray is the bigger, stronger, faster athlete who owns more sting on the first serve and has a wider reach in running rallies. Ferrer cannot afford to cede court position in baseline rallies and Murray cannot revert to his passive-aggressive, chase and counter formula when things get tight.
The four-time Australian Open finalist conceded he was emotionally drained and stressed out during his fourth-round win over Bernard Tomic. That match came after Murray's father-in-law, Nigel Sears, was hospitalized after collapsing during Ana Ivanovic's match on Saturday night.
Murray has a lot going on—his father-in-law's health scare, wife Kim is expecting the couple's first child in a few weeks and the prospect of another grinding battle of attritrion with the stubborn Ferrer —but the ornery Scot is often at his best in turbulent times. Empowered by leading Great Britain to the Davis Cup last fall, Murray should be confident playing for his sixth straight win against Ferrer.
The Pick: Murray in four sets
(13) Milos Raonic vs. (23) Gael Monfils
Rod Laver Arena (First night match)
Head-to-head: Monfils leads 2-0
The flying French showman versus the explosive Canadian demoliton man.
The acrobatic Monfils plays with the exuberance of a mean ready to leap over walls, the powerful Raonic serves with the menacing force of a man capable of toppling walls.
Raonic has expanded the serve-forehand blueprint to his game, building the foundation for all-court success. He's sharpened his footwork and movement, he's added variety and accuracy to his backhand and the 6-foot-5 Canadian's willingess to serve and volley on occasion and close net frequently makes him a force.
The kamikaze dive La Monf took behind the baseline in his fourth-round win adds to his eye-popping video legacy, highlights his dazzling athleticsm and reinforces his self-destructive tendencies. Why dive behind the baseline on a hard court and wrist fracturing your wrist or breaking a few fingers in the fall?
"I dive, because I know I can dive," said Monfils, who took a 10-minute injury timeout after his dive and suffered scrapes and a bone bruise to his right hand.
Two issues for Monfils here:
1. How will his wounded hand hold up to the ballistic pace of Raonic's serve?
2. Monfils sometimes chips back returns from well behind the baseline leaving him vulnerable to the serve-and-volley Raonic deployed in his five-set win over Stan Wawrinka. Can Monfils adjust his return positioning to catch up to Raonic's serve?
Monfils will win his share of style points, but Raonic should prevail on critical points and become the first Canadian man to reach the Australian Open semifinals.
The Pick: Raonic in four sets