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By Erik Gudris | Monday, May 9, 2016

 
Garbine Muguruza

The exit of many top seeds in Madrid doesn’t help in predicting who might win Roland Garros in a few weeks.

Photo Credit: Getty Images


Last week’s women’s event at the Madrid Open proved hard to predict with mulitple seeds falling before the final rounds. While some enjoyed the unexpected results, others are not so thrilled with the current WTA Tour this season.

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With both World No. 1 Serena Williams out of Madrid due to illness and Maria Sharapova still in career limbo, the opportunity was there for one of the WTA’s remaining elite to earn the title.

Yet all three top seeds, Agnieszka Radwanska, Angelique Kerber, and Garbine Muguruza lost very early. Defending champion Petra Kvitova fell by the wayside too. Victoria Azarenka, the hottest player on tour, pulled out with a back injury. Eventually Simona Halep, who was looking just for some wins in what up to now has been a so-so start to the year, ended up holding the trophy for her first title of the year.

Currently, one either views the WTA Tour as being in complete disorder or being entertaining in its unpredictability. Many players admit the tour is tougher now with so many pros, no matter what their ranking, able to beat just about anyone on a given day. While upsets each week are expected, the ongoing trend of seeded players crashing out early week after week has many seeing that number by any given player’s name as just that - a number.

Tennis Channel analyst Mary Carillo, while calling a match, openly wished for the return of World No. 1 Serena Williams back into action. While Williams will be back this week in Rome, her return is no guarantee that she will be the last woman standing in Foro Italico.

Williams, though reaching two finals in Melbourne and Indian Wells, has struggled with her form and health. We’ve all seen Williams enter a tournament with no match play and go on to raise the trophy many times in her career. But Williams has been hard to predict from match to match of late, and clay is not always the easiest surface to find one’s form on right away. Rome may give us some clues as to how she might fare in Paris a few weeks from now as she seeks to defend her title, but probably not many.

While the ATP has its “big four” or “big five” that fans expect to see in the final rounds week in and week out, that’s not the case with the current WTA top five after Williams.

Kerber, after winning the Australian Open, had trouble winning matches until she reached Miami. Though she won the Stuttgart title, Kerber exited Madrid at the hands of Barbora Strycova. Certainly Kerber is dealing with the increased expectation and attention after having won her first major. Kerber certainly could be a mainstay inside the top five for some time, but she will still be someone who is ripe for an early exit at each event she plays.

Radwanska, who currently flips back and forth with Kerber for the No. 2 ranking, was bounced out of Madrid in the opening round by eventual finalist Dominika Cibulkova. Radwanska, despite her steady results, is still vulnerable on clay. She is also vulnerable to power players who don’t fall in her traps of spins and drop shots. While Radwanska will look forward to the grass season and then hard courts again in the summer, it’s hard to say that Radwanska is assured at some point of reaching a Major final again.

Perhaps the most perplexing player on tour right now is Spain’s Garbine Muguruza. Though ranked No. 4, Muguruza has struggled to reach just two quarterfinals this season. And then there’s her ongoing coaching relationship with Sam Sumyk. While the pair have been seen arguing during on-court coaching consults, Muguruza has said that it’s just all part of the process. While still only 22 with plenty of time and potential ahead of her, Muguruza will hope to enjoy better results, especially with her looming Wimbledon finalist points to defend.

Finally, perhaps it was Azarenka that ended up having the biggest disappointment in Madrid. With seeds falling all over the place, she looked to be the favorite to take her third premier mandatory title this year. But a back injury halted her hopes. Though her withdrawal was precautionary, it resurected lingering concerns that the former No. 1 is another big injury away from being sidelined for an extended time. If Azarenka can stay healthy, she certainly could be the one to possibly challenge Williams for the top ranking this year.

All roads to Rome, at least this week. Fans of the WTA should probably buckle up for more surprises there and in a few weeks at Roland Garros. And it’s in Paris where one player could finally restore order to their season by holding high the coveted trophy of the always most unpredictable of Grand Slams.

 

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