By Chris Oddo | Tuesday November 8, 2016
There's more than just the No.1 ranking on the line at London next week, writes TN's Chris Oddo.
Photo Source: AFP
How much would a fifth consecutive ATP World Tour Finals title mean for Novak Djokovic in 2016? Well, for one it would mean a fifth year-end No.1 ranking in the last six years—that’s something that every player covets. But for Djokovic it could mean the difference between spending the holidays with a lingering doubt in his mind about his long-term future or spending them full of confidence that when the chips are down, he remains the ATP’s player to beat.
More: ATP World Tour Finals Draws, Groups Revealed
It’s been a difficult autumn for Djokovic professionally (18-5 since Roland Garros with one title, some devastating losses, injuries and ennui to boot), but he’ll have the chance to right the ship at the event he has absolutely dominated since 2012. If he does it, the ATP narrative will spin once again in Djokovic’s favor, painting him as a man on a mission after a short dip, ready to claim more major titles in 2017 now that his temporary malaise has passed.
At this point, however, it’s anything but a safe bet to believe that Djokovic has what it takes to win the ATP World Tour Finals for a record sixth time next week in London. It’s not that the Serb doesn’t have the game—he simply doesn’t have his head screwed on properly at the moment. Doubt has crept into Djokovic’s arsenal and he may need time to fully process all that he is going through emotionally before he returns to 100 percent confidence again. Is it a cause for long-term worry that Djokovic has seemingly lost his killer instinct and appears to be in a state of emotional and philosophical upheaval that has bled into his tennis in the second half of 2016? Maybe not yet, but it certainly could be.
With Andy Murray eager to run the table for a bit, Djokovic would be wise to do everything in his power to keep Murray under his thumb or else his empire—and his already paper-thin hopes of making a run at Roger Federer’s record of 17 major titles—will surely take a hit. Remember five years ago when Djokovic put a serious dent in Rafael Nadal’s plans by overtaking him when he was in his prime (he beat him in seven straight finals, including Wimbledon and the Australian Open, in a 10-month span that started in March of 2011)? Could Murray do the same to Djokovic? If the Scotsman can parlay his rise to No.1 and all the good vibes that come with it into a rare win over Djokovic in London, it could signal a sea change in the pair’s rivalry as we head into 2017.
Djokovic, who has won 14 of 16 against Murray, surely doesn’t want to return any of the confidence currency that he has earned over the last two and a half seasons against his “rival” (He has beaten Murray in their last five meetings in majors, including three finals. He has also won nine of their last 11 meetings at the Masters 1000 level). Which is why the race for year-end No.1 in London shapes up as more than a simple run for a symbol. There is more than numerology at stake here. Djokovic has left a door open for Murray and if the new World No.1 slams through then we could be looking at the beginnings of a tectonic tennis shift. Murray and Djokovic will decide their ranking status as the year winds down. But in reality there’s more at stake. Murray, scorching-hot and perhaps playing as well as he ever has, has a chance to send a significant shot across the Djokovic bow in London. A title for Murray that featured a win over the Serb could completely change the course of the lopsided rivalry between the two.
Djokovic may have been content to experiment with his mental approach to tennis this fall in Shanghai and Paris. He may have been eager to step away from the game to let his body and mind rest, not wanting to take part in the high-stakes pressure game and all that it entails—and that’s more than understandable. Djokovic has been running his engine hot for three years and in that time he has become the game’s most dominant player and perhaps its most dominant of all-time as well.
But in tennis, like in life, the old adage holds true—you snooze, you lose.
Djokovic’s step back has coincided with Murray’s step ahead, and now the Serb is faced with the challenge of beating back the flames of Murray’s fire. The Scotsman's is a rager that wants more oxygen so that it may burn even brighter; Djokovic, the buzz-killer of many an aspirational player on the rise for years now, is the only one that can douse those flames.
Murray and Djokovic may not meet in London at all. Both players would have to reach the semifinals at the very least, and they might need to reach the finals, depending on how the standings within each group play out. But if they do meet next weekend, the stage will be set for a massive conflagration between the two premier powers in the game today.
Murray will look to assert himself over Djokovic in a way that he has never done. He’s an athlete in peak form, both mentally and physically, and it’s certainly within the realm of possibilities. Meanwhile, Djokovic will look to reclaim what he believes is rightfully his. He’ll need to fight fire with fire if he is to succeed, but does Djokovic any fire in him right now?