By Franklin L. Johnson | Thursday, April 6, 2017
Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray squared off in three straight clay-court finals last season.
Photo credit: Mutua Madrid Open
The ATP spring clay-court season launches in Houston and Marrakech next week before getting into full swing with the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters.
A year ago, clay-court season was a two-man race between Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray.
Watch: 5 Major Finals We'd Like To See
The pair squared off in three straight finals in Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros.
Elbow injuries forced both world No. 1 Murray and reigning Roland Garros champion Djokovic out of Miami opening opportunity during dirt season.
Here’s our look at the Top 5 clay-court questions of the ATP spring season.
Will Rafael Nadal reclaim his crown as King of Clay?
The positives are clear. Nadal has already contested three finals three months into the season and was a couple of service holds from capturing his 15th Grand Slam crown in Melbourne. I think this clay-court stretch will be very important for Rafa. Nadal knows he has a good chance to claim his record-extending 10th Roland Garros. He will be emotionally-charged to play his best with Uncle Toni in his corner for the final French Open together. We’ve already seen the influence of former French Open champion Carlos Moya in Nadal’s corner urging him to mix his locations on serve. Nadal has also been more aggressive with his first serve.
Yet, questions are clear, too. It has been a full year since Nadal’s last title in Barcelona—that’s a long drought for an iconic champion. It remains to be seen if his body will allow him to push the envelope to outrageous levels anymore. Unfortunately, I don't think he possesses the enormous physical capacity and recovery ability of his title years. Rafa’s heart will be in it to win it, but will his body be up for the grind? Remember, a year ago much of the tennis world, myself included, was concerned with Rafa’s knees when in reality it was his left wrist that knocked him out of Paris.
Still, Nadal will be primed for Paris because he knows Murray and Djokovic won’t be at their best from the first ball and Federer will be AWOL until Paris. This gives Rafa plenty of time and repetition to build his confidence for an all-out assault for the French Open. And we all know what the King Of Clay can achieve when he has time, repetition and confidence on the terre battue.
What can we expect from Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic?
A year ago, Djokovic and Murray met in three consecutive clay-court finals: Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros.
Given both pulled out of Miami citing elbow injuries—and some reports say Murray may not return until May—it’s questionable if we will see the world’s top two meet in even one clay-court final this year.
Reigning Roland Garros champion Djokovic is scheduled to return in this weekend’s Davis Cup quarterfinals and should be eager to hit the clay-season with a bang in his hometown tournament in Monte Carlo. Drained by completing the Sunshine Double last year, Djokovic was upset in his Monte Carlo opener by Jiri Vesely.
I think Novak will get off to a quicker start in Monte Carlo, but can he sustain it? For all the talk about personal issues dogging Djokovic it looks like he lacks a bit of the same dynamic movement to his left. The former No. 1’s ability to defend his two-handed backhand fully stretched on the run has been a key to his success, but he hasn’t done that as well this year. And he’s been more vulnerable to big hitters who can displace Djokovic and force him to defend as Denis Istomin did in Australia and Nick Kyrgios has done twice in a row.
Consider Murray’s workload and phenomenal success during his run to No. 1 last year—and remember that came after a physically-demanding 2015 when he played deep into the year leading Team GB to the Davis Cup championship—and it’s not surprising he’s been suffering from injury now after a heavy two-year workload. Look for Murray to proceed with caution during clay season then turn it up in time for grass season and the launching of his Wimbledon title defense.
Who is the player to watch during this clay season?
Regardless of what rankings say, Roger Federer is the best player in the world right now. Yet the Australian Open champion said after sweeping Nadal to win the Miami Open, he was not planning to play on clay until Roland Garros. Can Federer win Roland Garros without a clay-court tune-up tournament?
The short answer: Are you kidding? The way he’s playing now Federer could win a major staged on the moon.
Here’s an underrated aspect of Roger’s Renaissance: Perspective. Not only did his surgery-induced break from the game reinforce his appreciation for the game it also instilled a sense of urgency and big-picture thinking. The Grand Slam king sees the ATP landscape changing before our eyes. Federer has finally mastered nemesis Nadal winning four straight over rival Rafa, he sees both Murray and Djokovic physically battered and maybe emotionally drained from their surges in recent years, good buddy Stan Wawrinka doesn’t truly threaten Federer except on clay and the young lions including Dominic Thiem, Nick Kyrgios, Alexander Zverev and Jack Sock need a little more season.
Funnily enough, things can change fast in tennis. When Federer skipped Roland Garros last year bringing to an end his record run of 65 straight Grand Slam appearances some questioned if he would ever win a major title again. Fast forward to now and would it really surprise anyone if Federer ended 2017 with 19 or even 20 Grand Slam championships? Federer won the Australian Open without playing a single tune-up tournament. The 2009 Roland Garros champion could opt to play Madrid or Rome to prepare for Paris and if he does he’s a contender.
Who will win the most Masters titles during clay season?
Barring injury, we should see Rafael Nadal bring the bite back to Masters title trophies. Last April, Nadal knocked off Wawrinka, Murray and Gael Monfils in succession to win his ninth Monte-Carlo championship. Nadal preceded all nine of his Roland Garros titles winning at least one clay-court Masters in Monte-Carlo, Madrid and/or Rome. Look for the 28-time Masters champion to expand on his Masters collection.
One of the freakiest stats in men’s tennis is this: Stan Wawrinka has won three Grand Slam titles and just one Masters title. That came in 2014 when he defeated Federer to win Monte Carlo. The third-ranked Swiss has a legitimate shot to reach world No. 1 but will need to win Masters championships to do it. This could be a break-out Masters season for the 2015 Roland Garros champion whose .671 career clay-court winning percentage is his highest on any surface.
If none of the fierce five—Murray, Djokovic, Wawrinka, Federer or Nadal—win Roland Garros, who is most likely to break through?
Tough question and a difficult call before one of the three clay-court Masters have been played but we'll play anyway.
Dominic Thiem’s heavy baseline strokes, physicality and dynamic movement make him a threat. Six of the Austrian’s eight career titles have come on dirt. Thiem reached the Roland Garros semifinals in just his third appearance in Paris last year and owns clay-court wins over Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, David Ferrer, David Goffin and Alexander Zverev.
The 20th-ranked Zverev has two wins over 2015 Roland Garros champion Stan Wawrinka in the last six months and has the power to hit through any opponent when he’s on his game.
After dismantling Novak Djokovic in Acapulco and Indian Wells and pushing Federer to the triple tie break test in Maimi, Nick Kyrgios showed the world he can beat anyone on any surface. Though I think Kyrgios will be more dangerous on Wimbledon’s grass than Paris’ dirt, he could certainly make a move at Roland Garros.
Empowered by winning two titles this season and his run to the Indian Wells semifinals and Miami quarterfinals, Jack Sock is charging toward the Top 10. He could get there with a Roland Garros second-week run. Two years ago, Sock reached the round of 16 in Paris.