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By Chris Oddo | Thursday May 25, 2017

He is the #KingOfClay. He is the French Open favorite. He is a nine-time champion on the terre batte of Paris. But will 2017 really be the year that Rafael Nadal claims his tenth title at Roland Garros?

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That’s how oddmakers see it playing out, and most who closely studied the clay-court form of Nadal this spring relative to the rest of the ATP see it that way as well, but there are seven matches to be won in Paris, and there are a lot more players capable of taking down Nadal in 2017 then there were in his heyday, which makes things a little more dicey for those contemplating betting the house on the Spaniard.

The truth is, we’ll know a lot more about Nadal’s chances when the draw comes out on Friday. There are some potential tricky scenarios that could involve a Top 4 seed facing Juan Martin del Potro in the third round, Nick Kyrgios or Alexander Zverev in the round of 16 and Dominic Thiem in the quarterfinals. If anybody in the top 4 gets that draw—Nadal or otherwise—their odds of winning the tournament instantly dip dramatically.


When it comes down to form and confidence, Nadal is certainly better off than he was in 2015 and 2016 at Roland Garros. He has a 94 percent winning percentage on clay this season, compared to 81 percent in 2015 and 84 percent in 2016. He has won four of five against the Top 10 and amassed three titles. He is winning 59 percent of his second-serve points (best since 2008) and 86 percent of his service games (best since 2013) on clay. That’s a lot different from last season, when Nadal came in with two titles but also with a debilitating wrist injury, and 2015, when Nadal had just one title (Buenos Aires) in addition to two losses to Fabio Fognini.

And while Nadal has been resurgent, others have slipped in form.

In 2017 Nadal isn’t just benefitting from the fact that he has been far and away the best player on clay—he’s also been aided by the fact that his rivals have been out of sorts. Last year’s Roland Garros runner-up Andy Murray, beaten down by an elbow injury, general fatigue from a grueling 2016 and a lack of confidence, has gone just 4-4 on clay this season. Defending champion Novak Djokovic is still enduring a crisis of confidence and a tumultuous upheaval in his entourage. He let go his coaching staff and only today has begun working with Andre Agassi on the clay in Paris. Roger Federer, the man who has suddenly solved his own personal Nadal riddle in 2017, is getting ready for Wimbledon, far away from Paris.

Thanks to a few wins in Geneva, Stan Wawrinka is 4-3 on clay this season, but he hasn’t once reminded us of the Stanimal form that won him the French in 2015.

There are reputable and dangerous challengers in the form of Dominic Thiem, Alexander Zverev, David Goffin, Kei Nishikori and Grigor Dimitrov, and these players—if confident and playing their very best tennis—could make life difficult for Nadal.

Nadal is having his best season on clay since 2013, it’s true, but the days of Nadal waltzing through a Roland Garros draw like he did in 2008 (he lost just 41 games that year) are gone and will never return. He’s not the tour de force at 30 that he was at 23, that’s for sure, but he’s better right now than he has been in several years, and he’s proven that fact all spring long. Nadal was a focused, fierce animal on the Road to Roland Garros when he reeled off a 17-match winning streak and earned his decima at Barcelona and Monte-Carlo, and now that he’s had a week off to recover and accept the fact that he was humbled by Dominic Thiem in Rome, expect him to throw every ounce of his spirit into the quest for a tenth Roland Garros title.

He won his first nine by being head and shoulders above the rest of the field. He was a physical freak that whipped his foes into a blender, tore them into pieces, and drank their liquefied remains—a bloody elixir that provided him fuel for the next victim and victory.

These days Nadal isn’t the Tasmanian Devil that he once was. He’s lost as many matches on clay in the last four seasons as he did from 2005 to 2013. Rivals know they can take him out if they play perfect, quick-strike tennis. But they also know that there’s no room for error. Either they play the winning ticket or they get smoked. In theory, Nadal doesn’t strike fear into the heart of his competition the way he did back in his twenties, but at Roland Garros, where Nadal has won 72 and lost just 2, there is a daunting, tangible magic that accompanies the thunder-clap of his Babolat strings as they meet the ball.

His legend precedes him and his achievements follow him. One faces Nadal and feels the weight of history in the topspin drives that explode off the court. He is king here, whether he is defending the title or not.

And this is what we contemplate as the witching hour approaches. Nadal has emerged as the clear favorite to win, and all eyes will be upon him as he begins his quest. It may be the last time he enters with this much momentum. It may be his last chance to win in Paris. It most certainly will be his best.

Let the games begin already.

 

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