By Chris Oddo | Saturday January 27, 2018
Roger Federer and Marin Cilic will meet for the tenth time tonight in the Australian Open men’s singles final, and for the second time in a Grand Slam final. Federer will come in as the heavy favorite, having won eight of his previous nine matches against Cilic, and each of the last three, but Cilic will forever be considered a threat based on his 2014 mauling of Federer in the U.S. Open semifinals and his powerful serve and groundstrokes, which have the potential to take the racquet out of any player’s hands when the Croatian is firing on all cylinders.
More: By the Numbers, Federer vs. Cilic, Aussie Open Final
But it isn’t just the 2014 U.S. Open that should strike fear into the hearts of Federer fans ahead of tonight’s final. There’s also the five-setter at Wimbledon in which Cilic held a two sets to love lead and inexplicably lost the plot to fall in five. And Cilic has won eight of his last 17 sets against Federer, after dropping nine of the first ten.
That bit of evidence likely points to the fact that Federer is no longer dominant over Cilic and that he is, in some ways, vulnerable against the Croatian’s power game much like the rest of the tour. Cilic in beast mode is a scary thing for any player to have to deal with, even a 19-time major winner.
But there is more than just history working in Federer’s favor. The Swiss has spent 6:13 less time on court compared to Cilic over the Melbourne fortnight, and as we’ve seen in past years, this can be a factor. Cilic doesn’t seem to think so, and he’ll enter the final on two days’ rest.
“I'm feeling really, really good physically, even though I had few matches that went more than three hours,” he said, referring to his round of 16 match with Pablo Carreno Busta (3:27) and his quarterfinal with Rafael Nadal (3:47). “But overall, feeling really good. I think I played great tournament so far with my level of tennis.”
Cilic is feeling very positive about his game this year and despite the fact that his victory over Rafael Nadal was marred by the fact that Nadal had to retire, he’ll take a lot of confidence from the fact that he was right there with Nadal before the Spaniard’s injury occurred. The victory marked Cilic’s first victory over a Top 5 opponent at a major since he defeated Federer in New York.
“I think I improved it comparing to end of the last year,” Cilic said. “I'm playing much, much more aggressive. I'm feeling that I am, for most of the shots, hitting them really, really good. From the return, moving, forehand, backhand, serving, I think everything is in good, solid spot. Feeling really excited about the final, too.”
Federer isn’t feeling so bad himself. The Swiss has exuded confidence since last year when he began this extraordinary run of tennis that has seen him win his 18th and 19th Grand Slam title as well as reel off five consecutive victories over an in-form Rafael Nadal.
It will take a lot to rattle him in his 30th major final. Federer is a man that has seen it all over the course of his career.
“I just have to play a good match,” Federer stated. “At this point it's not about having to improve anything in particular. I think I've done everything pretty well, you know. I just hope I'm going to have a good start to the match. I hope I can mix up my game. I hope I can start serving well from the get-go, not get into too much trouble early. I hope I can read his serve and all these things.”
On the court there are a variety of things that will need to happen for Cilic to angle for the upset. He’ll need to make a healthy portion of first serves, say, 65 or more percent. He’ll also need to get a read on Federer’s serve and get himself into return points. And when he does he’ll need to be opportunistic. That win in New York that we keep referring to saw Cilic convert four of his eight break points on a day that saw Federer win just 69 percent of his first-serve points. That’s incredibly low for Federer and it probably won’t happen again. Cilic will have to make up the difference by being remarkably efficient on his serve and by taking his chances when he gets them against Federer service game.
Cilic won 87 percent of his first-serve points against Federer at the 2014 U.S. Open, with a 56 percent first-serve percentage.
In their last meeting at the ATP World Tour Finals last November, Cilic had a 51 percent first-serve percentage and he only won 70 percent of his first-serve points. He ended up facing nine break points, saving six, in a three-set loss.
There will be a window for Cilic tonight if he serves well and takes control of the short-to-medium length rallies with his power game. But there will be very little room for mistakes, self-doubt or hesitation.
Federer will be looking to exploit any slip-up in Cilic’s game, and if he does it early, he’ll look to steamroll. Federer is the best frontrunner of all-time and if he’s on his game, he should be able to take the early lead and run with it.
Federer is 15-3 in major finals when he wins the first set, and 4-7 when he loses it. If you look at Grand Slam semis and finals combined, Federer is 42-7 when he wins the opener, and 5-16 when he loses it. It’s critically important for Cilic to play a perfect opener—without it he’s surely in big trouble.