By Chris Oddo | Wednesday July 11, 2018
Wimbledon, England—And then there were four. 128 women’s singles player have been whittled down to four and we’re here to preview Thursday’s women’s semifinals.
With much fanfare being made about the fact that zero Top 10 seeds reached the quarterfinals at a Grand Slam for the first time in history at a Grand Slam on the women’s side, many have failed to notice just how compelling the final rounds have been. Three former Grand Slam finalists have made the semis, including seven-time Wimbledon and 23-time major champion Serena Williams (plus two other former Grand Slam champions), and the quality of the quarterfinals was extremely high with Russia’s Daria Kasatkina and her stylish game introducing themselves to Centre Court while Camila Giorgi nearly took out Williams.
Key Stats (Via WTA):
This fortnight marks Goerges’ 42nd appearance in a Grand Slam. Only four players in the Open Era played thIs many majors before reaching their maiden semifinal: Likhovtseva (46), Vinci (44), Tauziat (42), and Vesnina (42).
Ostapenko is the last remaining of 10 junior champions who began the tournament. Just four players have won the Wimbledon women’s singles title after winning the girls singles title (Haydon-Jones, Susman, Hingis and Mauresmo).
Serena Williams, at 36 years and 291 days, is the sixth-oldest Grand Slam semifinalist in the Open Era; she is bidding to be the third oldest Grand Slam finalist in the Open Era. Should she win the title, Williams would be the oldest Grand Slam singles champion in the Open Era, overtaking her own record set at 2017 Australian Open.
Ostapenko (32) has dropped the fewest games en route to the last four
Without any further ado, let’s get on to the semis…
[11] Angelique Kerber vs. [12] Jelena Ostapenko
Head-to-Head: First Meeting
The two highest seeds remaining in the draw square off in a compelling tilt between technical and tactical polar opposites. Kerber is the quintessential counterpuncher who looks to lengthen points and use her wheels to keep her in rallies so that her down-the-line forehand can act as the killshot. Ostapenko is the quintessential puncher who looks to set points up on her terms and is unafraid to go for shots that look near impossible to pull off.
The perceived impossibility doesn’t stop Ostapenko from being aggressive and she feels that on grass she not only can be aggressive—she needs to be.
It appears to work in Ostapenko’s favor at Wimbledon. She’s playing with a purity of purpose and a jaw-dropping physicality; she leads the tournament in return winners and second-serve points won, and in her quarterfinal she left an in-form Dominika Cibulkova searching for answers. The Slovakian knew that she had to make first serves because of the way that the Latvian can pummel the second serve. The pressure built and Cibulkova never could get comfortable as Ostapenko raced to the finish line.
There’s potential for Ostapenko to do the same thing against Kerber. The German has won only 73 percent of her service games through five matches, which compares a tad unfavorably to the 79 percent of service games she won in 2016 when she was a finalist at Wimbledon and the 78 percent she won in 2013 when she reached the semis.
The good news for Kerber is that she’s returning well and Ostapenko isn’t the best server at this stage of her career. She’s also done well from the baseline, albeit not as well as Ostapenko, so she’ll have chances to break the Latvian and use her down-the-line forehand to stretch Ostapenko out in baseline rallies.
Doing anything against Ostapenko from the baseline looks like a daunting task given how well she has played at Wimbledon this year and how comfortable she is on the grass, but if anybody can counterpunch her and goad her into errors, Kerber might be the one.
As far as experience goes, Kerber gets the upper hand, both in Grand Slam semifinals, where she’s played six, and at Wimbledon, where she’s a former finalist with a 28-10 lifetime record (Ostapenko is 10-3).
Pick: Ostapenko in three
[25] Serena Williams vs. [13] Julia Goerges
Head-to-Head: Williams leads 3-0
Serena Williams will continue her bid to tie Margaret Court on the all-time Grand Slam title list with 24 when she faces a first-time Grand Slam semifinalist in Germany’s Julia Goerges in Thursday’s second semifinal.
Williams, who owns a 91-10 lifetime record at Wimbledon, has gradually ramped her daunting service game up as the tournament has progressed, but she hinted that she may have another level or two to hit on Tuesday when she told reporters that she has been conservative all tournament long.
If Williams hits another gear from the service stripe it could spell disaster or Georges, who is already returning at a rather abysmal level of just 30 percent return games won for the tournament (last among remaining players).
But Goerges has been inspiring in her form at Wimbledon, ending a stretch of five consecutive losses at SW19 and winning 73 of 95 net points while hammering 44 aces. If there’s hope for her it’s that she’s learned how to better handle the grass thanks to her new coaching team and her commitment to developing her game on the surface. She can also take heart in the fact that Williams hasn’t returned well at Wimbledon and she nearly suffered an upset at the hands of Camila Giorgi that saw the Italian win 12 of 14 service games despite making only 53 percent of her first serves.
If Goerges can get her first serve percentage up in the 60’s she may have a chance to get some holds and at least put some scoreboard pressure on Williams. But judging from the way the American handled Giorgi in the tight spots on Tuesday, it doesn’t seem likely that she’ll buckle under pressure.
Pick: Williams in Two