By Chris Oddo | Wednesday March 7, 2018
The BNP Paribas Open begins today, and we’re here to prep you with 10 storylines that are worth keeping an eye on over the fortnight to come. In reality it has been a bit of a strange tennis season. Injuries have significantly depleted both the ATP and WTA Tours, but we’ll get Serena Williams back, along with Victoria Azarenka on the women’s side. On the men’s side Novak Djokovic makes his return after successfully undergoing an elbow procedure immediately after the Australian Open, but Stan Wawrinka, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray are all out.
So who is going to win this thing, and what dark horses might emerge? Read on as we try to make sense of tennis’ first leg of its annual March madness.
1. Serena’s Back
It’s crazy to think about tempering expectations with 23-time major champion Serena Williams, but the American is playing her first WTA event since winning the Australian Open last year. That’s a long time and she has been through a lot. Child birth is no joke, nor are the difficult extenuating circumstances that kept her on the sidelines longer than normal after her child, Alexis Olympia, was born in September. Williams has looked progressively better in her three competitive, non-WTA Tour appearances this year, but the naked eye says she’ll still need a few matches under her belt before she is truly ready to roll. That's code for we're not picking her for the title but we do expect a few wins.
Williams opens with Zarina Diyas in round one, and if she wins she’ll face No.29-seeded Kiki Bertens. If she gets through those two she could face her sister Venus in round three. Let’s see how those three rounds go before we admit that our call was horribly wrong and we never should have doubted Serena Williams.
2. Will Roger Federer Remain Dominant?
Roger Federer claimed the Indian Wells-Miami double last season and he’ll be the favorite to win a record sixth BNP Paribas Open title this year. The Swiss enters with a 12-0 record on the season, after winning his 20th major title and claiming the Rotterdam title which allowed him to become the oldest No.1 in ATP history.
Can Federer possibly keep this amazing run going? Would you bet against him, considering how well he has played? The Swiss has a favorable draw and has reached the final in each of his last three appearances at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden. And, furthermore, there really doesn't seem to be anybody willing to make that step and push Federer at the moment. Which brings us to our next item...
3. What Will Novak’s Return Bring?
It’s great to see Novak Djokovic back in action this week at Indian Wells, especially because we really weren’t sure when he’d return after he announced that he had undergone a procedure to repair his injured right elbow after the Australian Open. The Serb didn’t want to do a surgery, and tried to avoid it at all costs, but he has clearly recovered quickly and is looking ready to go in his practice sessions. (He's still wearing that sleeve, for what it's worth)
The five-time Indian Wells champion will look to regain the form that made him the most dominant player in the game from 2014 to 2016, and doing some damage in the desert could be his first big step back in the right direction.
Even under an injury cloud, Djokovic was still able to make the second week at the Australian Open in January—not bad for a player that was hurting and on the cusp of surgery. Djokovic, seeded 10, is slated to face Kei Nishikori in the third round and potentially a very in-form Juan Martin del Potro in the round of 16—we’ll know a lot more about the Serb’s title-winning potential if he can get through those two difficult tests.
4. Is Maria Sharapova Ready to Compete for Big Titles?
Maria Sharapova has gone 21-9 since returning to tennis from her ban, winning a title in Tianjin and reaching two other semifinals. She’s also gone 5-2 at the majors, reaching the second week of the U.S. Open last September. But the Russian has also been injury prone and struggled to back up big wins. Those will be her two biggest challenges as she tries to kick her comeback into the next gear this season: Can she stay healthy enough to build momentum and can she produce inspired tennis night after night at big events with a field that is so deep and talented?
The jury is still out concerning Sharapova’s ability to do both. She has done a nice job of getting her ranking to No.41, but to get back into the Top 10 she’ll need to start hitting on all cylinders this spring.
Sharapova, a two-time Indian Wells champion with a career record of 38-11 at the BNP Paribas Open, will open her tournament against Naomi Osaki on Wednesday night. She’s one of three players to have notched 30 or more victories at Indian Wells. It will be interesting to see how many she can notch in her first trip to the desert since 2015.
Also of note is the particularly difficult section of the draw Sharapova is in. If she gets by Osaka she’ll face Agnieszka Radwanska next, and in the third round a matchup with Garbiñe Muguruza awaits.
5. Petra Kvitova Is in Scorching Form, Will She Parlay it into a Run?
Petra Kvitova makes her return to the BNP Paribas Open, riding a 13-match winning streak and carrying a ranking of No.9 in the world (up from 29 at the start of the season). The Czech has two quarterfinals to her name at Indian Wells, and a 12-7 lifetime record. Is it time for her to beef up those stats?
6. Who are the Challengers to Federer? Are there any?
The men’s game has been a bit discombobulated with all the injuries of late, and the withdrawal of Rafael Nadal, David Goffin and Stan Wawrinka, plus the lack of match play from Novak Djokovic, Nick Kyrgios and Kei Nishikori make this a tricky tournament to call. Seriously, who looks good for a run to the semis? Juan Martin del Potro is a name that jumps out. The Argentine is fresh off a title at Acapulco, but he’s hardly a lock. Del Potro has reached two finals this season but has also sandwiched disappointing results at the Australian Open, where he was crushed by Tomas Berdych in the third round, and Delray Beach in between. Other than Del Potro and perhaps Novak Djokovic, who is capable of stopping an in-form Roger Federer?
7. Who wins the WTA Race for No.1?
Simona Halep and Caroline Wozniacki could end up battling for the No.1 ranking again at Indian Wells. But Wozniacki will need to reach the title match at the very least to keep Halep from finishing the week at No1.
8. Don’t Sleep on Angelique Kerber
Angelique Kerber is 15-3 on the season and she has reached at least the quarterfinals of all four events she has played. She has a title to her name as well as an Australian Open semifinal and a semifinal in Dubai. It feels like she is very much on the cusp of another big year and even though she has not reached the quarterfinals at Indian Wells since 2013, and she has lost four of her last six matches in the California Desert, it feels like she has a deep run in her.
9. Players to Watch on the ATP Side
For obvious reasons we’ll be watching Novak Djokovic and Nick Kyrgios closely, to see what kind of health they are in and what kind of form they can muster, but who else? How about Diego Schwartzman, inside the Top 20 and off to a fast start in 2018? Or Hyeon Chung, who has looked great in reaching back-to-back quarterfinals at Delray Beach and Acapulco after returning from that horrendous blister that he suffered in Melbourne. Other players in good form: Lucas Pouille, Kevin Anderson, Fabio Fognini and Frances Tiafoe. Do any of these aforementioned players have a run in them? Or will struggling players like Alexander Zverev and Grigor Dimitrov find their form in the desert? Lots of mysteries on the men’s side right now, that’s for sure.
10. Players to Watch on the WTA Side
Don’t know how we got this far without mentioning Elina Svitolina, but dang has the Ukrainian been good this year. She’s 14-2 with titles in Brisbane and Doha, and the only true blemish on her season has been the loss to Elise Mertens in the quarterfinals at the Australian Open. Not a horrible loss by any means, but disappointing nonetheless.
One really has to love the overall play of Svitolina since the beginning of 2017. She’s gone 67-16 and has emerged as a Top 5 talent with the potential to go deep at every event she enters. She’s also won her last seven finals, which says something about her big match potential. One has to think she’s among the favorites at Indian Wells, and perhaps next in line behind Simona Halep when it comes to winning a maiden major.
But Svitolina isn’t the only WTA talent to keep an eye on this week. We’ll be watching Daria Kasatkina, who is in the Top 20 for the first time. Julia Goerges has turned a corner and has turned into a major threat. Svetlana Kuznetsova and Victoria Azarenka are on the comeback trail. Ash Barty looks like a Top 20 fixture and could be poised to go higher. The depth of the WTA Tour is astounding, and it should make for popcorn tennis as the weekend rolls around.