By Chris Oddo | Thursday May 24, 2018
The Roland Garros men’s singles draw is out and it’s time to roll up the sleeves and have a look under the hood of this baby. To be honest there weren’t any big surprises in the #RG18 edition. There isn’t a quarter of death; Novak Djokovic is in a relatively tame section, compared to what he might have been in, and he’s not even in Nadal’s half.
Of course there were some minor eyebrow-raisers that we are just beginning to feel the impact of, such as the fact that Nadal faces the sometimes-but-not-in-a-while dangerous Alexandr Dolgopolov in the first round, and the fact that Dominic Thiem and Alexander Zverev are in the same quarter. There are also some highly intriguing first-rounders and a few noteworthy sections worthy of a proper dissection, so let’s have at our draw winners and losers.
First, here’s a quarter-by-quarter look:
Winner: What’s Nadal’s Path to the Title?
The Spaniard has a pretty straightforward route to the business end of this draw, provided that he’s healthy and playing at his ornery best.
Nadal owns a 7-2 record against Dolgopolov (2-0 on clay) and he has won the last three against the Ukrainian. Making matters easier for Nadal is the fact that Dolgopolov has played just two matches since the Australian Open and lost them both in straight sets. He’s not in good form and should be steamrolled by the Spaniard. Nadal with face either Joao Sousa or Guido Pella in round two followed by a likely third-round encounter with Richard Gasquet and a likely round of 16 match with either Denis Shapovalov or Jack Sock. Since Sock has been horrible in 2018 (5-10 so far) we think it could be Shapovalov and we think Nadal’s route to the quarterfinals will likely go down without the loss of a set.
Furthermore, avoiding Thiem in his quarter or half makes things a lot easier for Nadal. It’s unclear who he’ll face in the semifinals but it likely won’t be No.3-seeded Marin Cilic or No.5-seeded Juan Martin del Potro. Why? Because neither player has the game on clay to a) get to the semis at Roland Garros or b) test Nadal if they somehow do. That’s not an insult to either player, it’s just that Cilic on clay is solid but not inspiring and Del Potro is coming off a groin injury and probably won’t be fit enough to do the necessary grinding on the terre battue.
In summation, yes, it’s hard to see anybody but Nadal winning this title, and, because of the draw, it’s even harder now than it was after Rome.
In a lot of ways it really does feel like the rest of the field is playing to see how far they can go, but they know that the road ends when the roadblock named Rafa steps in.
Winner: Djokovic looks good
Things could have been worse for No.20 seeded Novak Djokovic. But he came out pretty nice and has a good shot to make a deep run here if he can build on the form he showed in Rome. Djokovic faced a qualifier, then possibly David Ferrer, and if he reaches the third round a date with No.13-seeded Roberto Bautista Agut awaits. Three weeks ago it might have been difficult to see Djokovic winning this match, but he made such a giant stride at Rome that we think he’ll make the second week, probably get into the quarterfinals and, when there, will have a very good chance to take out No.8-seeded David Goffin and knock off either Thiem or Zverev in the semis. At this point in the men’s draw (around next Monday or Tuesday) things will start to get interesting.
If Djokovic proves that he has taken another step in his comeback in week one it will be possible to start imagining him a) reaching the semis and perhaps final and b) who knows, maybe even test Nadal, depending on what his form looks like.
The Djokovic storyline is one that could snowball in Paris, and if we see Novak in week two, it will be a huge topic of discussion on the men’s side.
Loser: Thiem and Zverev on collision course
The Thiem/Zverev quarter is going to be really fun to watch because it also includes Stefanos Tsitsipas, who could face Thiem in the second round, Stan Wawrinka, who opens with the always tricky Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in round one (the Spaniard has three wins over Wawrinka on clay in six matches, including a takedown of the Swiss in the first round at Roland Garros in 2014).
It will also be interesting to watch Zverev. The German has had major difficulty at the majors, going 0-7 vs. the Top 50 lifetime and never having gone beyond the R16. At Roland Garros he was upset in round one last year after reaching the third round in 2016. There will be big pressure on him because he’s seeded second and because the media is very hip to his Slam struggles and never lets him forget about them.
If there is one player who get a really tough draw it would have to be Zverev. After facing Berankis in round one, he could face either Dusan Lajovic or Jiri Vesely in round two, 26th-seeded Damir Dzumhur in round three, and perhaps Wawrinka or Lucas Pouille in the round of 16, if Zverev can make it that far (the second and fourth rounds could be trickiest for Zverev). Then the Thiem QF awaits. Not an easy route at all for the wildly talented 21-year-old. Zverev has been one of the biggest stars of the clay season, but in the what have you done for me lately world of Grand Slam tennis it's high time that he steps up and produces an upside surprise on this stage.
Winners, Maybe: What surprises could we see?
19th-seeded Kei Nishikori could become a huge factor in this draw. He has played pretty well this clay season and if he’s feeling healthy he could reach the round of 16 where he’d likely face Dominic Thiem for a spot in the quarterfinals. It’s not all that crazy to imagine Nishikori (10-3 with two quarterfinals in the last three years in Paris) breaking through and beating both Thiem and Zverev to reach the semis. Who knows, he could even reach the finals, but of course—as always—so much depends on his health.
Heart and Soul: Benneteau’s last Roland Garros
Speaking of surprises, how about sentimental favorite Julien Benneteau taking the bull by the horns and beating Leonardo Mayer and Juan Martin del Potro to reach the third round? The Frenchman has proven that he still has the game (see Paris Masters, when he made his last appearance at the event last year), and he’ll be pumped up to lay it all on the court in his last appearance on the terre battue. Could he make the second week? If he gets past Del Potro, why not? We could see him beating John Isner 15-13 in the fifth set and then losing next round when he can barely move. Or something to that effect—you get the picture, right?
Hopeful: Shapovalov and Tsitsipas Will Look to Make Strides
Two of the biggest stories of the 2018 clay season will look to cap off their clay grinds with some big wins in Paris—Stefanos Tsitsipas (15-5 on clay this season, counting qualies), and Denis Shapovalov (6-2 at Madrid and Rome, losing to only Zverev and Nadal) have proven that they are formidable players on this surface. Playing in Paris in a best-of-five format will step up the difficulty level for these two stars, but they will provide fans with must-see TV in week one, whether they make the second week or not.
Shapovalov, seeded 24 and tucked in a decent section, looks to have a good chance to reach the round of 16 and play Nadal—that would be an incredible experience for the 19-year-old Canadian not matter how it turns out.
Tsitsipas, more natural on clay than Shapovalov, will play a qualifier in round one then Dominic Thiem in the second round if he gets by. Tsitsipas upset Thiem in Barcelona this April—can he possibly do it again?