By Chris Oddo | Monday November 19, 2018

The ATP’s 2018 is done and dusted and the ultra-short (we’re looking at you Alexander Zverev) off-season has officially begun for everybody not competing in this weekend’s Davis Cup final in Lille.

So what did we learn in 2018? And what, if anything, did it tell us about what might happen in 2019? Let’s try to make sense of it, shall we?



1. Djokovic is the man to beat down under

Novak Djokovic just saw a tiny bit of his invincible aura chipped away on Sunday in London where he was defeated by Alexander Zverev in straight-sets for the ATP Finals title. Zverev may have flipped the script in London, but it doesn’t change the narrative as we head into the off-season. Djokovic is the year-end No.1 for a fifth time, and he’s holding two of the four major titles in his back pocket.

The Serb’s next task? Reproduce the magic that we’ve seen from him time and time again down under and win a seventh Australian Open title. Easier said than done of course, but the 2019 Aussie Open title is Djokovic’s to win. With Federer seemingly slipping ever so slightly, Nadal not in tip-top shape and Next Gen ready on paper but maybe not quite as much in reality, it’s hard to see anybody else standing at the podium on the final Sunday in January.

2. All Signs point to all-out war on the clay

If the scenario plays out and Djokovic does win in Australia, then the scene will be set for a series of battles on the clay this spring, followed by the ultimate war for the terre battue in Paris. Can Djokovic hold all four majors again? That’s the question that everybody has been asking the moment he raised the trophy in New York in September. The answer is yes, but there’s also another question that gets answered with a resounding yes: Can Nadal win a 12th title at Roland Garros?

The clay season, once again, promises to be the sweet spot of the 2019 tennis season.

3. Next Gen’s Next Step?

For as much as we’ve talked about Zverev, Karen Khachanov, Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Borna Coric it was Kyle Edmund and Hyeon Chung who broke through on the Grand Slam stage in 2018—not the aforementioned Next Gen forces.

So, what’s it gonna take for these extremely talented players to have that breakthrough? A better draw never hurts, and that should come as each improves their ranking. An aging elite will also help, and that is surely already here. But until we start seeing these guys in the quarters of Slams or beyond, we’ll know that the Big 4 is still running the ATP show.

4. What can Roger Bring to the Table at 37? 38?

It’s difficult to know what we should expect from Roger Federer in 2019. Perhaps the biggest issue is that he’s played a lot of tennis and will have a short off-season. That’s not ideal for the old bones of the maestro. We saw what Federer did when he took six months off the tour in 2016—he came back and won three of the next five majors.

Yes, Novak Djokovic was not in rip-roaring form at the time, but one of the biggest reasons that Federer was able to produce the magical run that eventually took him back to No.1 was the fact that he was refreshed, rejuvenated and supremely fit.

If he doesn’t have that same shine in 2019, how will he cope with all the forces that are conspiring to push him down?

5. Tsitsipas, RISING

In 2017, Hyeon Chung parlayed a title at the Next Gen Finals into a semifinal run at the Australian Open. Stefanos Tsitsipas won the event in 2018 (this year's event was very fiercely contested). The kid is a phenomenal talent with all the tools and the trappings for greatness. So what’s his follow-through going to be like?

Expectations will play a role for certain. Anything less than a first major quarterfinal (or more) in 2019 will be a disappointment for the Greek.

6. Khachanov, Tsitsipas, Zverev – Djokovic slayers?

Khachanov, Tsitsipas, Zverev... These are the three players that have been able to defeat Djokovic since he started his magical run at Wimbledon. Not Nadal, not Federer, not Del Potro. What does it say about the state of the tour right now with so much of the elite talent either well over 30 or well under 25? Interesting times, indeed.

What enabled these three to defeat Djokovic and will they be able to continue the pattern in 2019? We are dying to find out.

7. Thiem’s Time?

Now that Dominic Thiem has spent the second half of the season improving his hardcourt tennis—quite successfully, mind you—he can put it to use in Australia. But after that expect Thiem to turn up the volume on his clay game like he never has before. Because as good as Thiem has become on hardcourts, the Austrian has now had a taste of the Roland Garros final. He knows how close he is to becoming a Grand Slam champion and he knows that Paris is the place where it has to happen for him.

We mentioned earlier that if Djokovic wins Australia then get ready for all hell to break loose on the clay. With Djokovic hunting another Nole Slam, Nadal looking to win his 12th Roland Garros title, and Thiem looking to get to the next level it could be a very dramatic spring in Europe.

8. Calling Stanimal!

Stan Wawrinka showed some amazing progress last season. He started (in spurts that were all too brief) to show the form that once upon a time made him a three-time major winner, and one has to believe that 2019 might be his last shot to get back to the top of the table at the majors. With Magnus Norman backing him and the knee as good as it’s going to get, we expect Wawrinka to make a push in 2019. The Swiss went 17-17 with zero titles in 2018, but more than anything, the year was about getting confidence in his body.

9. Calling Andy Murray and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Andy Murray also got back to the tour last season, but his results were a tad more mixed than Wawrinka’s. He never completely got confidence in his fitness or in his surgically repaired hip, it seemed. He’ll start the season ranked at 260, but the good news is that Murray likely learned a lot about himself in the 12 matches he contested in 2018. It was with much trepidation that he first took the court and it was with some trepidation that he called it quits on the season in late September.

We expect that Murray will need some time to pick up confidence and wins in 2019—perhaps we’ll see him play his best tennis on the grass this summer, but likely not sooner.

As far as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga goes, the Frenchman appears to be in good health again as well. He’s 33 and he’s ranked 259. Like Murray, first step is to get that ranking back inside the Top 50.

Note to fans: As players like David Ferrer start to disappear from the tour we should remind ourselves to pay close attention to the plight of these "wounded warriors" and, if given the opportunity, embrace the opportunity to watch them play live. We just don't know when these greats are going to hang it up so the time is now to enjoy them to the fullest.

10. Other elements of intrigue

Kei Nishikori was a big success story in 2018, but he never did claim his first title since 2016. Perhaps 2019 will be a season that sees Nishikori build on his success, win a title or two and once again challenge for a major on the final Sunday? The Japanese reached the semis at the U.S. Open this year, which is proof of just how far he has come since he began the season on the challenger tour. … Grigor Dimitrov, with the backing of Andre Agassi, is most certainly due for a bounce-back year. But is it in the cards for Dimitrov with all these young players furiously climbing the rankings? … Kevin Anderson told reporters he’d like to reach the Top 3 in 2019. It’s great to hear the South African talk like that, because you are either rising or falling in the rankings, and from where Anderson is at, there’s a long way to fall. … There are two teenagers in the ATP’s Top 100 and both will be players to watch in 2019. Is Alex de Minaur (ATP # 31) the next Lleyton Hewitt and how far can his jaw-dropping quickness and insatiable will to win take him? Denis Shapovalov (ATP #27) picked up a lot of great experience in 2018, but he fizzled a bit at the end of the season. What does the Canadian need to do to ensure he becomes the star that so many believe he is destined to be?