By Chris Oddo | Thursday September 6, 2018
It’s semifinal time in New York and history is on the line as the women take center stage on Thursday night at Arthur Ashe Stadium. Serena Williams will bid for reach her 31st major final against Anastasija Sevastova, who has finally broken through to her first major semifinal in her 23rd major.
In the second semifinal, Madison Keys will look to make it back-to-back finals while Japan’s Naomi Osaka will try to become the first woman from her nation to make the finals of a major.
Here’s a quick look at both matchups:
Serena Williams v Anastasija Sevastova
Head to Head: First meeting
Key Stat: Williams owns a 30-5 record in major semifinals
Just two months after making her return to Grand Slam play at Wimbledon, Serena Williams is in the hunt for that elusive 24th major title again. Williams does not lose at this stage of a Slam very often, but she has lost two U.S. Opens consecutively. In 2015 she had her quest for the Calendar Slam stopped by Roberta Vinci, and in her last appearance at the U.S. Open it was Karolina Pliskova that stopped Williams en route to her first major final.
Can lightning strike three times in a row in New York? If that is to happen, Anastasija Sevastova will have to play the match of her career in her first major semifinal. Playing well shouldn't be too hard for Sevastova, as the Latvian will benefit from all the experience she has had on Arthur Ashe Stadium in the last three seasons. She owns a 15-5 lifetime record at the U.S. Open and has reached at least the quarterfinals in all her last three appearances.
Sevastova will have to rely on craftiness, variety and touch—but it won’t be as easy to provide nuance against a power player like Williams. In her quarterfinal victory over Sloane Stephens Sevastova took advantage of the American’s passive play and peppered her with drop shots. We’ll know early on Thursday if she can have success with that strategy against Williams—or if she can handle the American’s pace and manage her nerves in the biggest match of her career.
For Williams the gameplan is simple. Serve well, return well, and attack the short balls that those two shots create. It’s hard to imagine Williams struggling in this match. She’s come a long way from a month ago, when she suffered back-to-back devastating losses in the Wimbledon final and at San Jose. Those setbacks motivated her to return to her very best form and fitness, and now that she’s here, she’ll be a really tough out.
Pick: Williams in Two
Madison Keys v Naomi Oska
Head to Head: Keys leads, 3-0
Key Stat: Osaka has broken serve in 24 of 40 service games at this year’s U.S. Open
This is the match that everybody is drooling over on Thursday. On paper Madison Keys is looking good with a 3-0 lifetime record against Osaka—in fact, Keys has parlayed perfect records against Dominika Cibulkova and Carla Suarez Navarro into consecutive straight-set victories in her last two rounds, but the matchup with Osaka could prove to be a little more complicated.
For one, Osaka is playing lights out, much in the same way that she did earlier this season at Indian Wells—Osaka got hot and stayed hot in that tournament, rolling past Karolina Pliskova, Simona Halep and Daria Kasatkina all in straight sets to claim her biggest title to date. Secondly, Osaka is vastly improved mentally from where she was two years ago when she famously blew a 5-1 lead in the third set and fell to Madison Keys in a third-set breaker in the third round.
But Keys says she is a different player compared to 2016 as well. And the results prove it. She has now reached the semis or better in three of her last five majors, and has gone 22-4 at the majors since last year’s U.S. Open.
“That [match vs. Osaka in 2016] I think was probably the first time I had been on Ashe and had to learn how to use the crowd,” Keys said. “So it was definitely something that I have learned from, and I have used—I know now to, as a home favorite, to let myself let the crowd in and let them help me in all of that. In that aspect, it was a learning experience.”
The words power and aggression come to mind readily when thinking about this match but in fact this semifinal could end up being more about patience and shot tolerance. Yes, aggression will be necessary, but which player will be aggressive enough to do damage while at the same time keeping unforced errors down?
Who will put the most returns in play and put the other on defense most effectively when the opportunity presents itself? And which player will execute during crunch time, to save the key break points and create the opportunities to open or stretch a lead?
It should be a fascinating contest. Each player has shown solid, steady form throughout the fortnight. Now it comes down to who can find a way to make the other drop their level, and who has the major magic.
Pick: Osaka in Three