By Richard Pagliaro | Friday, May 17, 2019
ESPN analyst Brad Gilbert talks to TN about why Novak Djokovic is in an "amazing position" to make history, what to expect from Rafael Nadal in Paris and Serena Williams' biggest challenge.
Photo credit: ESPN
Talk is cheap, but Brad Gilbert’s way with words inspired Andre Agassi to a career peak in Paris.
Blown out by Andrei Medvedev and crippling nerves in the opening set of the 1999 Roland Garros final, Agassi got a rainy reprieve—and a locker-room dress-down from coach Gilbert.
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“He stares. Then he starts screaming,” Agassi wrote of Gilbert in his memoir Open. “Brad, who never raises his voice to anybody comes apart…
“(He says:) Just start letting go. If you’re going to lose, at least lose on your own terms. Hit the f—king ball. If you’re going to go down, go down, okay go down. But go down guns blazing. Always, always, always go down guns blazing.”
Acting on that advice, Agassi roared back from a two-set deficit to complete the career Grand Slam in Paris.
After a champagne celebration he recalled walking back to the hotel with Gilbert, who summed up the wild ride into history simply: “Usually in life the journey ends the wrong f—king way. But this one ended the right way.”
This month, Roland Garros’ red clay is a historic crossroads of conflicting journeys.
World No. 1 Novak Djokovic plays for his second straight Nole Slam—and 16th career major title—while 11-time Grand Slam champion Rafael Nadal aims to defend his crown.
We caught up with ESPN analyst Gilbert, who handicaps the French Open field, explains why Djokovic is in an "amazing position" to make history, how Nadal's 2019 campaign compares to a prior season and the primary challenge Serena Williams faces in her chase for Grand Slam supremacy.
ESPNEWS will be televising live the Wimbledon Court No. 1 celebration featuring John McEnroe, Martina Navratilova and Lleyton Hewitt on Sunday starting at 9 a.m. Eastern.
Tennis Now: How do you assess Rafa’s form and prospects for Paris? Uncle Toni’s comment about him being “an injured person who plays tennis” concerned a lot of people but he’s looking like the Rafa we know in Rome.
Brad Gilbert: If you go back, 2014 Rafa didn’t play invincible in Monte Carlo or Barcelona and he still won Paris. So I think it’s most important that he’s peaking for Paris. You can have an amazing clay-court season and win everything, but if you don’t win the French it’s not as great of a season. But if Rafa doesn’t win any of the lead-up tournaments and he wins Paris—like what Pete (Sampras) did a the ’95 Open. Andre (Agassi) won 26 in a row, but that doesn’t win the Open.
So I do think that he’s much more difficult to beat in best-of-five and he’s looked a lot better this week in Rome. And the guys he’s lost to, each one of them have all played freaking great. Fognini, Thiem and Tsitsipas—it’s like he didn’t lose to guys that weren’t playing great ball.
TN: Dominic Thiem is a Roland Garros finalist with four wins over Rafa. Tsitsipas just beat Rafa, beat Roger in a Slam and is having a break-out season. What do you see for those two?
Brad Gilbert: Tsitsipas is 20—he's playing better than any of the guys 21-and-under. It’s hard to prognosticate for Paris because you don’t know which section is Fed in? Or where does Fognini go? Sight unseen it’s tough to predict without seeing the draw, which comes out next Friday.
Having said that, I am very impressed with what I’m seeing from Tsitsipas. Thiem played fantastic in Madrid. I said in January the over-under for Djoker winning Slams was three. I still think Novak is the favorite, without seeing the draw, and Rafa is the second favorite.
TN: I was in Miami when Novak spoke about the off-court distractions—the Justin Gimelstob and Chris Kermode situations and the politics at play as player council president—then we see him bounce back and win Madrid. Do you think those off-court distractions and issues he mentioned in Miami could have an impact on Paris or do you think he’s moved on from it?
Brad Gilbert: From what we’ve seen: It’s all about Paris. He’s trying for his second Djoker Slam so it doesn’t matter what happened. If he gets it right now and wins Paris, it’s the second time he’s held all four (Slams) at the same time.
I mean, nothing else needs to be said. Champions are remembered by these majors and he’s putting himself in incredible position. Look where he was just a year ago. He was just starting to find his game in Rome last year, which got way better on the grass. Now, 12 months later, he’s in amazing position heading into Paris.
TN: If he completes the second Novak Slam, he’ll have 16 majors. Would you say then it’s inevitable he will pass both Rafa and Roger in the all-time race if he’s holding 16 at age 32?
Brad Gilbert: Let’s just say the next six to eight Slams Novak might be the favorite. The amazing thing is he keeps putting himself in position. But it’s not like Rafa and Roger are going away either.
So I like to kind of what and it will all play out in the next three or four years so we see what’s going to happen. But he’s still in an incredible window now.
TN: Roger has shown us some tremendous tennis in his return to clay and a lot of emotion too. How do you see his clay-court game? Do you think seeing Novak and Rafa’s form influenced his decision on playing more?
Brad Gilbert: Roger’s playing tremendous. Thiem had to play unbelievable to beat him in Madrid. He had a tough match the day before that with Monfils then comes back and wins a couple of matches in Rome.
I think that he may have been looking back at last year and thinking this time: Do I want to go from winning Miami to playing the grass? And I think as he got into it, he may have felt, you know what I want to play more matches on clay and be even sharper for the grass. Then maybe after playing one tournament he was like, no I don’t want to practice I’d rather play another tournament.
So I think that he knows exactly what he’s doing and he’s still very comfortable on the clay. He grew up playing in Switzerland on clay and indoors so clay is very comfortable for Roger. He slides unbelievably well, he’s still moving great and he’s got that energy and desire to compete. He totally loves it.
Paris, for me, is the most unpredictable of the four majors. You could have rain for a couple of days and then all of a sudden have to play three matches in four days because they don’t have a covered court like the other three majors. Remember, a couple of years ago, we had all that rain in Paris and then the court can play heavy and slow. And then all of a sudden, you get 95-degree heat and the court can play incredibly fast. So there’s a lot of variables in that tournament with the weather.
TN: You and Andy Roddick recently had an interesting Twitter exchange about Sascha Zverev. You both made good points. What’s the story with Zverev’s struggles? Is it the off-court issues? Is it a confidence crisis? A few months ago, he looked unstoppable winning London.
Brad Gilbert: First, he’s the third player in a row to finish number three and then fall back the next year. So in 2016 Raonic finished number three and got some injuries and had a disappointing ’17. Dimitrov finished three in ’17 then all of a sudden had a disappointing year last year. Now, Zverev is (experiencing it). So if you get to three your expectation is now to go up from there.
The way he played in London, I really thought he was going to be loading up. He was serving in the low 140s. I’m seeing him play more tentative now. It’s not the fact that’s he back in the court that’s so bad it’s that he’s back in the court and he’s being pushed around. So if you are back then you’ve got to be more aggressive with your swings or get more height on the ball, but I feel like he definitely isn’t playing as aggressive as he needs to for a guy of his size.
On his court position—that was part of the Twitter banter back and forth with Andy—I do think he can take a smaller swing on the backhand. The one thing is I’m shocked about how massive he served in London and where has that been this year? Did you see the way he served in London?
TN: He rolled all-time great returners.
Brad Gilbert: I mean, he was out-serving—in pace and speed and everything—Isner when he played him in London. I was so impressed with his serving in London so that’s been the biggest surprise for me. You build up equity by beating these guys and all of a sudden guys come on court with a totally different attitude against you. I mean he’s 15-10 on the season so he’s taken a lot of losses already.
TN: Naomi Osaka had a little dip after the coaching change, but I thought she’s looked good in the clay matches she’s played when fully healthy. She’s said clay isn’t her favorite surface but she also said she wanted to be ranked and seeded first for the French Open. What do you see for Naomi in Paris? What do you see in her game since the coaching change?
Brad Gilbert: I think pretty much between Indian Wells and the US Open last year she had a pretty marginal stretch. And she didn’t do that great in the fall then she wins the Australian Open.
Look, I’m still shocked by the split. I still feel like no one knows exactly what happened. She’s moved on and he’s moved on and now it’s a confidence thing. This isn’t Naomi’s favorite surface, but I watched her in Rome and in Madrid and she’s starting to look a lot better. I think her chances will be a lot better in Paris if the weather is better. I think if it’s a little warmer she can hit through the court better.
She’s won the last two majors so if she gets in the second week she can be a completely different player.
TN: How will Simona Halep handle the challenge of defending in Paris? How do you handicap a women’s field that seems so wide open? And do you agree with Simona, who has mentioned Kiki Bertens and Sloane Stephens as contenders?
Brad Gilbert: Until Naomi won Australia we had eight different women winners in the last eight Slams. I can probably say that 10 to 15 different players can win the French women’s title depending on the draw.
I still believe if someone gets hot, she could do something that could totally surprise you in Paris. Like a whoa, where did that come from moment. I don’t see something as extreme as a couple of years ago when Ostapenko won. I do think between 1 and 15 or even 1 and 20 (can win). It wouldn’t shock me whoever won.
On the men’s side, you can say Rafa, Djoker, Thiem, Tsitsipas, Fed. On the women’s side, I have a hard time giving you a list of five. Halep is most comfortable on the surface; I’d probably have her right in the top two or three (favorites). And you look at the rankings and go: you know what Kiki Bertens is Top 5 in the world, so maybe her time is now.
Though it seems sometimes when players reach a career-high in the rankings and you’re expecting a deep run in the majors it doesn’t quite happen. We thought that would happen with Svitolina and it didn’t quite happen. But Bertens has gone deep in these clay-court events, she’s playing long and she definitely has a chance to win the tournament.
TN: We’ve seen limited appearances from Serena because of her knee injury. She looked good in Rome, but the knee and lack of match play both bring uncertainty. What do you see for Serena, not only Paris—if she plays Paris—but going forward the rest of the year?
Brad Gilbert: It’s tough to know exactly because of her health. When I watch her, she’s not battling her opponents, she’s battling herself to be healthy. At 37 years old to be having this knee issue—sometimes the most frustrating thing is you listen to everybody.
Okay, do X, Y and Z and then hopefully it’s going to be okay and then it’s not but that’s the bigger issue. What exactly is it? Hopefully it’s not something that is tough to overcome and requires full knee surgery or something.
It’s frustrating to go through all the rehab and do all the stuff to get back and take time off, train with your team, think you’re gonna be okay and boom she plays one match and then she feels the pain again. So that’s a tough issue. I think Serena’s game looked fine, but it’s the knee is the only thing that matters.
Should she shut it down now, rest it and then hope the knee can be healthy for 14 days at Wimbledon? I can’t answer that. Only Serena knows or the knee knows.
TN: You were an early proponent of the serve clock. Do you see Roland Garros or any of the clay Masters events ever adopting line-calling technology? The topic comes up every year when there’s a ball-mark dispute or players feel the chair umpire is looking at the wrong mark.
Brad Gilbert: I just shake my head because I don’t understand it. I don’t understand why the chair umpire doesn’t have a TV screen right on the chair to see the replay. I mean just to see the incidentals to make sure there was a not-up. You should be able to use Hawk-Eye for all discretionary calls. There’s absolutely no reason (not to use it).
I’ve seen sets 4-all or 5-all and they’re looking for a mark and they look at the wrong mark. And I know they’ve always done it this way, but sometimes on a close mark, too, Hawk-Eye will say in or out and the umpire might say differently on the same ball. I still don’t get why we don’t use it on clay and I hope the ATP will do it first in their Masters Series.