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By Chris Oddo | @TheFanChild | Thursday October 8, 2020


There is more intrigue than expected ahead of Friday’s men’s finals at Roland-Garros. The alpha dogs are still very much the alpha dogs, make no mistake about it, but there is an air of hope working in the favor of the underdogs, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Diego Schwartzman.

Will those dogs prove to be more bark than bite on Friday?

Tennis Express

Schwartzman isn’t viewed as the same threat that Dominic Thiem would have been had he progressed to the semifinals and taken his spot across from Nadal in Friday’s semifinals, but he is the player that last took out the Spaniard on clay, and he’s playing the best tennis of his life. There’s also the fact that he managed to snare a set from Nadal when they last met in Paris, in the quarter-finals in 2018.

That match, played in heavy, soggy conditions, until it was called for rain and resumed the next day, might provide a perfect blueprint for success.

In the top half, where Tsitsipas and Novak Djokovic are slated to meet for the sixth time, there is some concern about Djokovic’s neck and shoulder ailments after he struggled with stiffness during his four-set win over Pablo Carreno Busta on Wednesday. Will Djokovic turn up 100 percent or will he be compromised during his semi-final with the Greek?

Inquiring minds want to know.

The most likely outcome, of course, is the predictable one, a Djokovic-Nadal final in Paris for the third time. But given the conditions, the stellar form of Tsitsipas and Schwartzman, and the surprising, recent physical struggles of Djokovic, there is the small possibility of a shock outcome in one of these semi-finals. It’s been a weird year. We’ve seen Djokovic defaulted from a Grand Slam and Rafael Nadal skip out on a major title defense due to Coronavirus. Could it possibly get even weirder? We have to be ready for all possibilities.

Let’s have a look inside these matchups and see what else we can discover:

Rafael Nadal v Diego Schwartzman
Head to Head: Nadal leads 9-1


Schwartzman made big waves in Rome three weeks ago when he knocked off Nadal in the quarterfinals at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. It was a huge win for the 5’7” Argentine, as he was searching for form at that point, and not really fully confident in his game. Since then it has blossomed and he’s coming off the biggest win of his career, his five-set triumph over Dominic Thiem in Tuesday’s quarterfinals.

All that works in the World No.14’s favor, but if Nadal hits his top form this weekend in Paris he may actually have that loss to Schwartzman to thank. After Rome the Spaniard headed back to Spain, a bit ornery, vowing to make improvements to his game, especially his serve.

Nadal was broken five times by Schwartzman in that quarterfinal in Rome; in Paris he has been broken just four times across five matches. If he continues to be efficient on serve, Schwartzman will face an uphill battle against the King of Clay.

The cold, heavy conditions, which are typical and unavoidable at #RG20, will certainly make it easier for Schwartzman to take more balls in his strike zone, rather than shoulder or head high, and that will make a massive difference for him, especially if the match becomes physical.

The Argentine promised reporters he’d be “perfect” physically after his five-hour battle with Thiem, and given the fact that he’s had two full days to recover, he’s likely to be right.

But Nadal has had two full days of rest as well. Even though he was kept out late on Tuesday, he’ll be rested and ready for a test—something he has yet to really receive thus far in Paris. Sure, Jannik Sinner pushed him for two sets, but was it really a test? If Schwartzman has any designs on winning this match he’ll have to find way to break Nadal’s serve early and often. He’ll have to make it a war of attrition and hope that his 28-year-old legs hold up better than Nadal’s 34-year-old legs.

Most important, Schwartzman will have to show that he’s not satisfied with making his first career semifinal. He’ll need to play with urgency and fire, like a man possessed, and a man that knows this might be his only chance to reach a Grand Slam final (that may or may not be true – doesn’t matter, it’s the mindset he needs).

No matter what Schwartzman does, he’ll be the underdog and the match will be Rafa’s to win. It will come down to execution, and experience, and in each department, Rafa holds the edge. He is who he is for a reason.

Novak Djokovic v Stefanos Tsitsipas
Head to Head: Djokovic leads 3-2


Stefanos Tsitsipas of Greece has made great strides just to reach the semifinals in Paris, but what can he do against World No.1 Novak Djokovic now that he’s arrived in his second career semifinal?

If the past is a predictor, Tsitsipas will have a chance at success if he can continue the form that has taken him to 15 consecutive sets at Roland Garros. He’s been close to perfect since he dropped the first two sets of the tournament to Spain’s Jaume Munar.

After his most impressive performance of the tournament, a 7-5, 6-2 6-3 win over Andrey Rublev, Tsitsipas said that playing with no expectations is the way to go. He also added that he’s hoping he learned a few things from his first major semifinal, way back in 2019, when he lost to Rafael Nadal in straight sets.

“You cannot expect anything,” he said on Wednesday in Paris. “I wasn't expecting playing semifinals of the Australian Open to start first. It's a dream, of course. But 'expect'? I'm expecting since a young age to potentially triumph at these Grand Slams. I'm happy that I'm able to be in a position where I am today. Yeah, it's very, very satisfying. I think I can learn from the previous one. I'm chasing something spectacular.”

That type of attitude will certainly help him in the future, and even tomorrow against 2016 Roland Garros and 17-time major champion Djokovic. But Tsitsipas will have his hands full if Djokovic plays his best because the Serb can hurt you in so many different ways on clay. He’s versatile in that he’s able to grind and play protracted rallies, but he’s also well-versed in the art of ending points with drop shots and volleys and cat-and-mouse exchanges.

Djokovic has all the tools to make facing him a living nightmare and Tsitsipas will have to produce extraordinary consistency and aggression in order to make progress against Djokovic. He’ll have to finish points at the net and be patient when he needs to be, without being passive.

It’s a daunting challenge, but it’s the type of challenge that the Greek should embrace. Even if he isn’t able to win he promises to gain valuable experience at a tournament that he hopes to someday win.

As a heavy underdog Tsitsipas’ only shot will be to embrace that mentality and avoid playing not to lose.

Until Wednesday Djokovic seemed the heavy favorite to win in Paris, but with a sore neck and shoulder bothering him he may be a tad more vulnerable. Nevertheless, it’d be hard to bet against the player that has yet to lose a completed match in 2020.

 

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