By Franklin L. Johnson
Photo Credit: Mark Peterson/ Corleve
(January 15, 2011) The most distant of all majors, the Australian Open embraces excitement like a long lost friend. Arguably, the Australian Open has become tennis' most exciting tournament. Located in modern Melbourne in the middle of the dynamic Asian hemisphere, Oz reflects the ubiquitous optimism of the area.
Roger Federer calls it "the Happy Slam." In keeping with all this exuberance, the Australian Open men's draw sheets are full of potential quality match-ups. Here's my forecast for the Oz fantasy fortnight:
Top Half
Continuing his quest to make history as the first man to collect four consecutive majors since Australia's own Rocket Rod Laver completed the Grand Slam in 1969, Rafael Nadal will have to play superhuman tennis to get to the final.
The World No. 1 will probably face his friend and fellow lefty, Feliciano Lopez, in the third round only to run into 20th-seeded John Isner next. This is a tricky pairing. No. 31 seed Lopez, who upset a weary (and World Cup interested) Rafa at Queen's Club last June, has too much respect for Nadal to stand in his way, but the young Isner will bring his thunder.
If Rafa survives these matches, he then runs into the winner of the Mikhail Youzhny-David Ferrer match. Remember, both No. 10 seed Youzhny and the seventh-seeded Ferrer have registered wins over Nadal at the U.S. Open. I'm going with the "saluting sarge", Youzhny, to win this match and be ready for the Raging Bull. The Nadal-Youzhny match could go the distance because Youzhny, coming off a U.S. Open semifinal setback to Nadal, will be eager for a rematch.
Fourth-ranked Robin Soderling won't have an easy match with temperamental talent Ernests Gulbis who will beat 2008 finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga only because the feisty Frenchman is having mobility problems.
The clash between No. 11 seeded Jurgen Melzer 21st seed Marcos Baghdatis match will be enthralling, pairing two shot makers. I'm going with Bags to face 2010 finalist Andy Murray in the fourth round. The fifth-seeded Scot should prevail only to get the Sod Man in the quarters. I think Soderling will be large and in charge agains Murray and simply overpower the two-time major finalist.
A Nadal-Soderling semifinal should be a monster match. Nadal may be over-tennised due to his short time off after last season and a bout with the flu. If Rafa enters this match weakened by the flu and several tough battles, his odds for going all the way will suffer commensurately. I believe Soderling will make his first Oz final.
Bottom Half
A potential Tomas Berdych-Ryan Harrison third round match should be a barnburner, pitting a solid contender for the title against the future of American tennis. I don't think either man will disappoint which makes this a definite popcorn match. Futures are created and sometimes concluded from contests like this.
No. 23 seed Nikolay Davydenko will run into Janko Tipsarevic. This should be a very cerebral match with both men trying to outthink the other. I like Nikolay to face Big Berd in the fourth round with sixth-seeded Tomas blasting his way to the quarters.
Third-seeded Serbian Novak Djokovic will probably face ninth-seeded Spaniard Fernando Verdasco for a shot at Berdych. This is another popcorn match which could go the distance. Nando likes the slow courts in Oz. If his big lefty hook serve is on, he could give Nole a very hard time. Novak will rely on his lone Oz title to help him get by Big Berd for a berth in the semis.
No. 8 seed Andy Roddick will face an in-form Stanislas Wawrinka. The popcorn will be jumping in this one, as well. Andy's experience should help him squeeze by the stubborn Swiss, but this match could go either way. A battle between big-serving Americans Mardy Fish and Sam Querrey will settle who'll be worthy of a shot at Federer. A big serve won't be enough to subdue Raja who'll face Rod.
Again, a big serve won't be enough. Raja will run over Rod for a battle with The Djoker. If Nole brings his best, this semifinal rematch of the 2010 US Open semis should be a monster match. Raja will fight as hard as it takes to defend his title and Nole will rely on his Oz win to give him the confidence to prevail. This should be a battle royale and a popcorn two-bagger. Raja will prevail and face the Sod Man for the hardware.
Champion
While Fed knows how to beat the big Swede, it won't be easy. Raja will have the advantage with experience and a gentler road to the final. The Sod Man will probably need to put in several hours more of court time for the chance to win his first major. Tough battles with Murray and Nadal could leave him weak and vulnerable to Fed's complete game. Soderling snapped Roger's record semifinal streak in majors at the French Open last June and Federer will have to work hard for the win. I think his experience and fresher legs will be the difference.
Roger Federer will win his 17th major and solidify his status as a tennis immortal.
Tennis Now contributing writer Franklin L. Johnson is a writer, poet and avid tennis player based in New York. He has covered professional tennis for three decades. His recent columns include Maria Sharapova Will Rise, Caroline Wozniacki Will Fall, Open Observations: Only The Strong Survive, Champs Can Sow Seeds of American Tennis Growth, The GOAT Game Changer, What Do Roger Federer and Andy Murray's Coaching Changes Mean? American Anthem Needs New Tune, Tomas Berdych Played Tame Final and A Case For Vera.