Breaking Down the Australian Open Men’s Draw

TN's Chris Oddo makes his picks from the Aussie Open draw, including one major upset prediction.

By Chris Oddo

(January 11, 2013) -- The big, burning question was answered when it was revealed that Andy Murray had been drawn into Roger Federer’s half of the Australian Open Men’s Singles draw on Friday.

But the puzzle is far from being complete; currently there are just 128 fragmented pieces, all lying in wait to be formed into a coherent narrative. Certainly, the big four minus Nadal will be in the drivers seat, but a host of challengers will look to seize the moment and make names for themselves in Melbourne over the next two weeks, with the door left ajar just a crack by the Spaniard’s absence from the field. (Will Ferrer still have an asterisk next to his No. 4 seed?)

A new season begins with a renewed sense of hope. Federer, at 31, will look to pad his legacy, while Murray and Djokovic, in their primes, will look to gain the upper hand on one another.

Meanwhile, 125 other ATPers will aim to prove that they too deserve to be recognized as one of the great ones. It may be a longshot, but so early in the season it won’t be hard for some of them to believe that it really is possible.

The Draws:

Djokovic’s Quarter

Djokovic has a nice draw, and there’s no other way to say it (well, "cupcake" is another way). He does have the ever-dangerous David Ferrer lurking in his half, and he does have giant-slayer Tomas Berdych in his quarter, but other those two opponents the Serb should have a nice quiet, ride to the second week.

He’ll open with Paul-Henri Mathieu, then play either Ryan Harrison or Santiago Giraldo. Possible third-round opponents include Radek Stepanek, Viktor Troicki, and Feliciano Lopez, and possible fourth-round opponents include Stan Wawrinka or Sam Querrey.

This should be a (cup)cakewalk for Djokovic. Even if he does face Berdych in the quarters, he is 11-1 lifetime against the Czech.

Pick: Djokovic

Ferrer’s Quarter

This should be the most interesting piece of the puzzle because while the players in this quarter all respect David Ferrer, they are all less intimidated by his presence than they are by the top three seeds.

Ferrer is still the favorite though. But he’ll be challenged as early as a third-round and possibly epic tilt with Marcos Baghdatis. If he passes that test, Kei Nishikori could be his fourth-round opponent, and if he reaches the quarters he could face Janko Tipsarevic in a rematch of their fantastic U.S. Open quarterfinal from last year.

Pick: Tipsarevic

Murray’s Quarter

Murray should slide through to the quarters with very little turbulence here. Perhaps Gilles Simon or Alexandr Dolgopolov can test him, but it’s unlikely. But if he should find himself facing Juan Martin del Potro in the quarterfinals then he’d have to bring his A game to advance. Murray’s in great form and he has been in great form ever since his Olympic triumph, but it’s a new season, and a well rested Delpo could be a dangerous man to face for the Scot.

Del Potro wouldn’t face a top 20 seed until Marin Cilic in the fourth round, if the seeds hold.

Pick: Murray

Federer’s Quarter

Federer has the death draw, there’s no mistaking that. But before you Federer fans panic, realize that the guys who have been drawn to play Federer -- Benoit Paire in the first round, Nikolay Davydenko in the second round, Bernard Tomic in the third round and Milos Raonic in the fourth round -- have far worse draws.

Federer is the king of the world and they are but mere pawns in his Melbourne chess game.

The one wildcard here is that Roger has not played a competitive match since November, so he’ll have to get his legs beneath him real fast. Paire, a Frenchman ranked No. 43 in the world, is an up-and-comer, and an unpredictable-but-talented shotmaker (think: Andy Murray, Grigor Dimitrov); Davydenko and Tomic are coming in extremely hot from Aussie Open warm-up events.

Pick: Tomic

Semifinals: Murray over Tomic, Djokovic over Tipsarevic

Final: Djokovic over Murray

(Photo Credit: Reuters)