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French Open Men's Semifinal Preview and Picks

By Chris Oddo                                 Photo Credit: Clive Brunskill/ Getty

(June 7, 2012) -- The 2012 French Open had an epic feel on the men's side before it even started, with Rafael Nadal bidding for a record-breaking seventh French Open title and Novak Djokovic gunning to become the first player to hold all four Grand Slams at the same time since 1969.

For thirteen days, these two compelling narratives have been on a collision course, and tomorrow, when the red dust has settled after two sure-to-be delightful semifinals, we will know if we are going to get the final that pits these two historic quests in an all-out battle to the death.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (3) Roger Federer,
Head-to-Head: Federer leads 14-11, Djokovic leads 5-1 since 2011


One mammoth roadblock to the heavily anticipated and somewhat expected final between Djokovic and Nadal is a tennis player by the name of Roger Federer. Have you heard of him? Why, sure you have, he's the man that owns more Grand Slam titles than any other player. If that doesn't ring a bell then surely you remember him wagging his finger at Roland Garros last year, when he dramatically put an end to Novak Djokovic's 43-match winning streak in the fading light on Chatrier.

Djokovic and Federer have carried on a wonderful rivalry over the years, and tomorrow should be no exception. Three of their last four Grand Slam meetings rank as instant classics, and the way that these two match up just seems to lend itself to close matches, stunning shotmaking and an emotionally charged atmosphere in the crowd.

While each player has a lot to prove, it is Djokovic who has the history on his back. He's on a 26-match Grand Slam winning streak, he's No. 1 in the world, and he's still got a ways to go if he wants to be considered in the same breath as Federer and Nadal in terms of overall body of work.

And what better way for Djokovic to take an immense step forward in comparison to Nadal and Federer than to beat them both here at Roland Garros, thus claiming the Djoker Slam and reasserting his dominance over Nadal in one fell swoop?

It's a big ask, but Djokovic can certainly reach the final if he plays a great match against Federer in the semis. The Serb has never lost against Federer after winning the first set, so a strong start could leave him in good stead tomorrow. But Djokovic, like Federer, has been plagued by spates of sloppy play all tournament long.

With the French crowd bound to be firmly in support of their beloved Federer, Djokovic will have to remain calm in the face of pressure. He'll have to forget about what he's trying to accomplish and just see the ball, hit the ball.

As far as Federer goes, his challenge is pretty much the same as Djokovic's. He'll need to show better form than he has in his five previous matches, and he'll need to make first serves and do his best to keep Djokovic guessing on the return. Then, if he serves well and gets the short balls he desires he'll need to put them away for winners and get the crowd fired up.

But most of all, Federer will need to play like a man who enjoys the challenge of knocking Djokovic off his high horse. He seemed to relish that role last year, as he embraced his underdog role to the fullest of his ability. In truth, Federer is not the underdog in this evenly matched tilt, but Roger would be better off to see himself as one. It'd help remove the pressure and facilitate that relaxed zone that can make Roger virtually unbeatable at times.

Pick: Federer in 3

(2) Rafael Nadal vs. (6) David Ferrer
Head-to-Head: Nadal 15-4, Nadal leads 12-1 on clay


An all-Spanish semifinal is appropriate for tomorrow's semifinals, as the Spanish have mastered the clay-court game like no other nation. Yes, Nadal is the be-all, end-all when it comes to Spain's contribution, but let's not forget that ferocious phenom known as David Ferrer. Ferrer took it to Andy Murray in yesterday's quarterfinals to reach his first French Open semifinal in ten appearances. It's been a long time coming for Ferrer, who year-in and year-out is one of the most dynamic players on the red dirt.

But the 30-year-old will have little time to relish his victory, as the King of Clay awaits him in the semis. Nadal owns a 12-1 record on clay versus Ferrer, with his only loss coming way back in the pre-Capri-pants era, in 2004.

Since then, it's been all one-way traffic for the 10-time Grand Slam champion, but that doesn't mean that Ferrer hasn't played  him tough, or even had his number on certain occasions. Ferrer is actually 2-1 against Nadal in Grand Slam action, but both wins involved a hobbled Nadal. So, where does that leave us? Is there any chance that Ferrer could take a set, let alone the match? Probably not, considering that Nadal has taken the last fifteen sets they pair has contested on clay.

That said, Ferrer is likely to play his best tennis tomorrow as he knows he has absolutely nothing to lose, and if Rafa starts to feel the weight of the achievement that he is two wins away from accomplishing, things could get complicated.

Pick: Nadal in 4


 

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