Is Eight Enough? ATP Monte Carlo Preview

By Chris Oddo                                             Photo Credit: Mark Peterson / Corleve

(April 14, 2011)--When the first ATP World Tour clay-court Masters event begins in Monte Carlo, a pair of crazy eights will be on everybody‘s mind.

Rafael Nadal will begin his quest for an eighth Monte Carlo Masters title this week with the knowledge that he’ll more than likely have to avoid losing to Novak Djokovic for the eighth consecutive time to get it done.

It’s promises not to be just crazy, but crazy good.

Is Eight Enough for Nadal?

Nadal, who hasn’t won a title since claiming his sixth French Open title last June, would like nothing more to announce his return to invincibility with a crushing defeat of his new arch-rival Djokovic in the final.

But beating Djokovic, and the sense of monkey-off-his-backness that will surely come with it, isn’t going to be Nadal’s only challenge in Monte Carlo. Nadal’s first and perhaps most important test will be to see how his ailing left knee will hold up under the strain of competitive play.

Nadal cut his tournament in Miami short a few weeks ago, electing to avoid two sure-to-be grueling matches in the sordid Miami heat against Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic (assuming he reached the final). There were many questions surrounding his health when he left, but they all basically boil down to this: Did he withdraw from Miami because the pain was unbearable to play with, or did he leave because he wanted more time to ensure that he was in perfect health for what is essentially Nadal’s most important stretch of the season?

If it was the latter, then expect to see an inspired Nadal who is ready to give Djokovic everything he can handle and more. If it was the former, then Nadal fans might want to cross their fingers.

Is Eight Enough for Djokovic?

After skipping the event last year, Djokovic appears anxious to play his hand at a place that Rafa has thoroughly dominated for seven years running. It is certainly a gamble, but if anyone deserves the right to play his hand it is Djokovic, whose brilliant all-court game, mind-blowing returns, and knack for coming through in the clutch give him the closest thing to perpetual pocket aces that any tennis player might possess these days.

So why shouldn’t he put his cards on the table and show Rafa that he is not going to shy away from him? 

There are two ways to look at Djokovic’s quest for his first Monte Carlo title: 1. He stands to lose all the momentum to Nadal if his plan backfires and Nadal finally takes him out in the final, or 2. He stands to put the final dagger into Rafa’s heart by scoring a monumental win, one that could be the final domino to fall in the sequence that will lead the Serb to his true goal this spring: the French Open title.

It may be early in the clay-court season, but make no mistake about it: a lot will be on the line at Monte Carlo next week. As compelling a story as it has been over the last several years, with Nadal’s incipient domination (four of his seven finals wins have been against Federer or Djokovic), this year’s version appears to be the most compelling of all.

Side Stories: The Rest of the Draw

As foolish as it might sound, Monte Carlo, at least until one or both of them becomes an upset victim, is about Djokovic and Nadal.

Still, it will be interesting to watch and see if Andy Murray, who has made marked improvements to his clay game over the years, can make some noise. He is slated to face Djokovic in the semis.

It will also be interesting to see if David Ferrer, a finalist last year, can break through and win a Masters title. If so, the slow-playing European clay would be the place it likely happens.

Other names to watch will be Tomas Berdych, Juan Monaco and Nicolas Almagro. Berdych is a lot like American John Isner in the sense that the clay provides him with time to set up and hammer his massive groundstrokes, while Monaco and Almagro come to life on the clay, playing with a lot of margin in their groundstrokes and moving with ease on the surface so that they can extend rallies and systematically wear down their opponents.

But beyond these names, it’s hard to imagine that anything -- barring injury or an unprecedented effort from someone like Thomaz Bellucci-- will get in the way of the final that we’re all currently anticipating with growing interest.

The Final Word: Ljubicic’s Last Go-Round

33-year-old Ivan Ljubicic, former world No. 3 and three-time quarterfinalist at Monte Carlo, has chosen to make Monte Carlo his final event. Fans of the always classy, and quite often sublime Croatian won’t want to miss his first-round encounter against fellow Croatian Ivan Dodig. If Ljubicic wins he will face the Fernando Verdasco-Olivier Rochus winner in round two.