By Chris Oddo | Sunday, March 30, 2014
Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will meet for the 40th time on Sunday in Miami. Who has the upper hand?
Photo Source: AP
It has supplanted Federer-Nadal as the must-see matchup in all of tennis, and tennis fans in Miami will hopefully have forgotten all about the lack of a semifinal Friday after Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic have met for a 40th time in the Sony Open Final on Sunday in Miami.
More Nadal-Djokovic: By the Numbers, Episode 40 | Video: Five Nadal-Djokovic Moments to Savor
Here's a preview of what promises to be a pivotal match with major implications for the long season ahead:
Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic
Head-to-Head: Nadal Leads, 22-17
What's at Stake for Nadal?
Nadal is bidding to win his first Miami title and eighth different Masters 1000 crown.
Nadal is bidding to move past Brian Gottfried and into sole possession of 12th on the ATP's all-time win list with 680.
Nadal is bidding to become the third lefty in Miami history to win the title (Rios, '98, Muster, '97)
Nadal is bidding for a record 27th Masters 1000 title (the next closest is Federer with 21).
What's at Stake for Djokovic?
Djokovic is bidding to become the second man in history to win the Indian Wells-Miami double twice.
Djokovic is bidding to win his fourth Miami title, which would move him into second place all-time behind Agassi (6).
Djokovic is bidding for his 18th Masters 1000 title, which would move him past Andre Agassi and into third place on the all-time list.
The Matchup:
The only really safe prediction when these two interstellar, otherworldly combatants get together on a tennis court is: P-A-I-N. They've played the longest Grand Slam final in history, they've played the longest Masters 1000 match in history, and each is known for possessing the rare ability to outlast the other in lung-searing rallies that leave themselves and their fans keeling over in agony.
But the matchup is as transcendent as it is brutal, as both Nadal and Djokovic have risen to previously unheard of levels of shotmaking and chess playing on a tennis court, largely due to the fact that they've had to in order to keep the other from dominating them.
This Sunday in Miami neither comes in as a clear-cut favorite, as both players have had their own personal struggles in 2014. Djokovic's concentration has been less focused than what we're accustomed to, and those lapses have cost him in big matches. Nadal's back caused him problems at the Australian Open, and he has been on the road back to perfect health ever since. Is he there? It certainly looked like he was this week as he ran roughshod through the field all the way to the quarters until finally being tested by hard-serving Milos Raonic, a test that he passed with flying colors by coming back from a set down to win in three.
Nadal will certainly need to be in perfect health today, as he'll be facing the best returner in the game in Djokovic, and it is Nadal's serve that has troubled him the most while dealing with the back issues. “I know I have to be solid with my serve,” Nadal said on Friday of the impending final. “I need to play aggressive, no doubt about that. That's it. We are playing in a court that today probably is his favorite court. That's hard. He arrives to the final with good confidence after winning in Indian Wells.”
If winning breeds confidence than Djokovic certainly should be confident coming into the final at Miami. But those who watched him closely at Indian Wells know that he had trouble serving out matches and sets. The question for Djokovic is: Will he be buoyed by the fact that he was able to get through tough matches in the Indian Wells semis and finals with John Isner and Roger Federer despite his serving woes, or will his serving woes under pressure continue to plague him against Nadal?
Djokovic believes it is the former. “For many reasons it was a very special tournament for me,” Djokovic said, “because I came back from set down in several matches to win the tournament, and it gave me a lot of wind in the back, a lot of confidence that I carried on in Miami.”
Holding serve will be key in their 40th meeting, but if history is any indication, there will be more than a few service breaks, and the winner will be decided by the thinnest of margins—maybe a fight back from 0-40 down in the final set, or a late break in the opener—which means that, once again, the winner might very well be determined by the more opportunistic shotmaker who possesses the more unyielding fortitude.
Djokovic has been that player in their last two meetings in Beijing and at the ATP World Tour Finals in London last year, but both victories came long after all of their biggest tilts—Roland Garros, U.S. Open—had been decided in favor of Nadal.
On Sunday, as we turn the page and begin another chapter of this incredible rivalry, Nadal and Djokovic will be setting the tone for the long season to come. Djokovic will be gunning for history in attempting to become only the second man in the history of tennis to accomplish the elusive Indian Wells-Miami double twice, while Nadal will be looking to claim his first Miami title, which would mark the 8th different Masters 1000 title he's achieved.
The tables are set, the players are well rested (thanks to an unprecedented semifinal round in which both received walkovers), and the title is there for the taking.
Pick: Nadal in Three (pick produced via coin flip due to lack of conviction either way)