Men's Olympic Preview: Federer Gunning for Golden Slam in London

By Chris Oddo

(July 27 2012)—Surprise, surprise—there are some things that Roger Federer hasn’t won yet. Over the course of his luminous tennis career, Federer has won 17 Grand Slam titles, an Olympic Gold Medal in doubles, 20 Masters shields, and he’s held the No. 1 ranking for a whopping 288 weeks—but he hasn’t won the gold medal in singles.

In fact, after reaching the semifinals as An 18-year-old in 2000, Federer has underperformed at the Olympic Games in his last two appearances, losing to Tomas Berdych in ’04 and James Blake in ’08.

These facts will be made abundantly clear by talking heads and the Twitterverse as Olympic tennis gets underway at Wimbledon, the venue where Federer has done most of his heavy Grand Slam lifting, and if Federer gets close, the talk of the Golden Slam will likely dominate tennis dialogues from London to Timbuktu.

But there are plenty of other great players in the draw if Federer should fall short again. There is Novak Djokovic, who has proven in the past that he enjoys the privilege of playing for his country. There’s Andy Murray, who has grown quite comfortable on Wimbledon’s Centre Court, and who would love to use the Olympic gold medal as a springboard to future Grand Slam success.

The 64-player draw is literally loaded with talent, and the action promises to be fast and furious with the best-of-three format on grass likely to give the edge to the hot hand, regardless of ranking.

Here’s a blow-by-blow, quarter-by-quarter look at the men’s singles draw:

Federer’s Quarter:

Federer will get visits from two of his ghosts of the past. First it will be Alejandro Falla, who nearly stunned Federer by taking him to five sets in 2010 at Wimbledon, and in the second round it will be Julien Benneteau, who was up two sets to love on the Swiss Maestro in the third round of this year’s Championships. Also lurking in Federer’s quarter will be seventh-seeded Janko Tipsarevic and eleventh-seeded John Isner, each of whom could meed Federer in the quarterfinals.

It's hard to imagine Federer going down before the semifinals this year, but the same thing was said in 2004 and 2008, so don't be shocked to see someone like Tipsarevic or Isner--or even Gilles Muller or Dennis Istomin, pushing the mighty fed to the limit.

Must-see first-rounder: Janko Tipsarevic vs. David Nalbandian

Pick: Federer

Ferrer’s Quarter:

David Ferrer has had a fantastic 2012, going 51-9 with five titles and reaching the quarterfinals or better at all three Grand Slams. Add to that the fact that Ferrer has always answered the bell for Spain in national competitions, and you have to think he’s a shoe-in to get to the semifinals. But Juan Martin del Potro, Kei Nishikori, and Gilles Simon are all thinking otherwise, and with the best-of-three format at the Olympics, Ferrer’s edge in fitness will be marginalized to a degree.

Bernard Tomic, a former Wimbledon quarterfinalist, and Philipp Kohlschreiber (a possible very tricky second-round opponent for Ferrer), a strong grass-courter, are also in this quarter, and could make things very interesting for Ferrer.

Must-see first-rounder: Bernard Tomic vs. Kei Nishikori

Pick: Kohlschreiber

Murray’s Quarter:

Andy Murray gets to open his campaign with Stan Wawrinka, and if you saw Murray struggle through a five-setter with the “other” Swiss star in 2009, you know that this is going to be a titanic first-rounder. Murray owns a 6-4 career head-to-head vs. Wawrinka, but he’s had some big losses to Wawrinka, including a third-rounder at the US Open in 2010.

Tomas Berdych (possible quarterfinal), Nicolas Almagro (possible quarterfinal) and Richard Gasquet (possible 3rd-rounder) are also lurking in this section of the draw, along with Viktor Troicki, Marcos Baghdatis and Robin Haase. Simply put, there are no easy matches in a 64-player draw, and as good as Murray is on grass, he'll have to play flawless tennis to reach the semis.

Must-see first-rounder: Andy Murray vs. Stan Wawrinka

Pick: Berdych

Djokovic’s Quarter:

Djokovic seems to be really far from the spotlight these days with all the attention that Federer is getting, and it might just suit him perfectly. He’s probably not feeling a lot of pressure, which is always nice for the aura, and more importantly, he’s probably burning up to prove to the world that he really is that player that tore up the tennis world last year.

If it’s true, the Olympics is as good a place as any to begin another world-beating hot streak. Djokovic will be tested early (possible 2nd-rounder vs. Roddick, possible 3rd-rounder against Cilic), but his biggest challenge lies in the flamboyant Frenchman who could end up being his quarterfinal foe.
Sixth-seeded Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is brilliant on grass, capable of beating Djokovic, and his chances of serving Djokovic off the court increase with the best-of-three format. But Tsonga will likely have to get past Milos Raonic in a potential second-rounder for that quarterfinal to happen.

Must-see first-rounder: David Goffin vs. Juan Monaco

Pick: Djokovic

Semifinals: Federer over Kohlschreiber, Djokovic over Berdych

Final: Djokovic over Federer

(Photo Credit: Reuters)