The Crystal Ball: Day 13 Picks for the US Open

Our crystal ball digs into Super Saturday, with fresh picks on both men's semifinals and a controversial pick on the women's final.

By Chris Oddo

(September 7, 2012) -- With two men’s semifinals and the women’s final on tap for Saturday, our crystal ball is working overtime. But that’s okay. It’s what we do. Today we went two for two in the women’s semis, going with Azarenka and Williams, making us six for eight so far at the US Open.

Also See: Crystal Ball: Day 10/ Crystal Ball: Day 11/ Crystal Ball: Day 12

Without any further ado, here are the picks for Day 13:

1. Andy Murray vs. Tomas Berdych

I can remember way back in the summer of 2010, when Tomas Berdych was fresh off a French Open semifinal and a Wimbledon runner-up performance, how high everybody was on the Czech back then. Fast forward a few years and here we are again. Except this time we know not to expect much from him in the Slams to come. That said, Berdych is Sriracha Sauce-hot right now, and as he proved in 2010, when the big, bad Czech is Sriracha Sauce-hot, he can beat pretty much anybody (except Rafa, and Robin Soderling).

Meanwhile, Andy Murray is having the summer of his life. He won the Olympic Gold and contested a Wimbledon final that ended up bringing the goodwill of the tennis world shining down upon him. It seems logical that right here, right now is Murray’s time. Once again, he’s two matches away from making the impossible dream come true. A jaded nation watches his every move, hoping that they can, once and for all, stop having to revert to Fred Perry when asked "what has British tennis done for the world lately?" Will Murray catch lightning in a bottle and get it done? This time, it really feels like he will.

But, as there always is with the hopes and dreams of Murray, there’s a catch. And that catch is a blue-eyed, ball-bashing chap named Berdych, who just so happens to own Murray. The Czech has a 4-2 head-to-head against the Scot, including three out of the last four since 2010. Apparently, much like Roger Federer, there is something about Tomas Berdych’s game that Murray doesn’t like.

Tactically, of course, it would appear that Murray would be able to defuse Berdych’s legendary power by feeding him a variety of ground-clinging slice and off-speed pitches, but that’s easier said than done of course.

Key Matchup: Murray’s guile vs. Berdych’s power

Crystal Ball says: Murray d. Berdych 7-6(3), 6-7(6), 6-3, 6-3

2. Novak Djokovic vs. David Ferrer

Before you assume that Djokovic will outclass Ferrer in the second men’s semifinal on Saturday, consider the fact that the Serb owns a relatively slim margin in their head-to-head of 8-5. But when you look closer, the fact that Djokovic has won four out of the last five, losing only at last year’s World Tour Finals when he was running on fumes bodes well for the five-time Grand Slam champion.

Ferrer sparkled in his five-set victory over Janko Tipsarevic in the quarterfinals on Thursday, proving that he can indeed be a major factor on hard courts. And you have to give the Spaniard credit for coming through to the semis in the quarter of the draw that everybody was calling “wide open” due to Rafa’s absence. Turns out it wasn’t wide open at all, as the top two seeds in the quarter played in the quarterfinal and Ferrer took care of business just like he has done all year.

But in Djokovic, Ferrer will be facing an entirely different animal in the semis. Djokovic, unlike Tipsarevic, will be capable to outlast Ferrer in long rallies, as well as taking him down with pinpoint winners that clip the lines with jaw-dropping efficiency.

And Ferrer’s biggest advantage against so many other players – his huge advantage in fitness – will be negated by the fact that Djokovic can last with anybody on any surface.

For Ferrer to stay in this match he will have to defend his serve with the same spirit that he did against Tipsarevic, and even then he might find himself thwarted by Djokovic’s world-class hard-court return game.

Key Matchup: Ferrer’s serve vs. the Djokovic return game

Crystal Ball says: Djokovic d. Ferrer 7-5, 7-5, 6-3

Serena Williams vs. Victoria Azarenka

Victoria Azarenka proved what type of competitor she is when she vanquished a determined Maria Sharapova in one of the most riveting matches of the tournament on Arthur Ashe on Friday afternoon. For her reward, the 23-year-old will get to prove herself all over again in the final, against an altogether more determined, more dominant foe in 14-time Grand Slam champion Serena Williams.

Azarenka owns a 1-9 record vs. Serena Williams, and there’s really no sugar coating the fact that Serena has found ways to beat her even when she wasn’t in the best form, and sometimes in matches where she was a set and two breaks down like she was in the quarterfinals of the 2010 Australian Open.

There is also no denying the fact that we are sitting smack dab in the epicenter of Hurricane Serena, a storm that has been brewing since the 30-year-old’s 102-ace performance at Wimbledon, which was followed up by her gold medal-winning performance at the 2012 Olympic games.

But let’s not forget that we are also sitting smack dab in the middle of Victoria Azarenka’s career year. The Belarusian has finally become the player the tennis cognoscenti thought she would be in 2012, winning the Australian Open, going on a 26-match winning streak, and now, to cap it off, making a run at the US Open.

This should be a very competitive final, despite the lopsided head-to-head. Azarenka most certainly comes in as the heavy underdog, but don’t think that the feisty World No. 1 doesn’t have a command performance in her for the final. She erased all doubts about that today with her scintillating victory over Sharapova.

Key Matchup: Serena’s serve vs. the Azarenka return game

Crystal Ball says: Azarenka d. Williams 6-4, 4-6, 6-4