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By Chris Oddo / Sunday, January 5, 2014

 

Andy Murray has played two matches since last September. So where does that leave his Australian Open chances?

Photo Source: AP

He has played two tour-level matches since leading Great Britain back into the Davis Cup World Group in mid-September of last year, and one of those two matches was a disappointing loss at the hands of Florian Mayer in Doha that cut the two-time Grand Slam champion's preparation for the Australian Open short.

So what can we make of Andy Murray and his chances at this year's Australian Open?

Don't get your hopes up.

It's not that Murray isn't elite enough—he's certainly proven that over the last two years—it's just that he can't possibly be fit enough, after spending four months away from the game, to do what he normally does in Australia. Murray's been to three of the last four Australian Open men's singles finals but a deep run at this year's edition of the happy Slam seems less and less likely as go time draws nearer.

With Murray turning down a wildcard into this week's tune-up in Auckland, New Zealand (also reportedly in Sydney), it feels like the man who broke the 77-year-old curse at Wimbledon for Great Britain is going to take the pragmatic approach to his 2014 season. Rather than rush head first into the season with reckless abandon, desperately trying to get some last-minute matches under his belt before the year's first Slam begins, Murray will instead hope to get in an exhibition or two at Kooyong and take his chances on the big dance.

Murray has already told Neil Harman of the London Times that it would be unrealistic to expect him to win in Australia this year, and it makes complete sense:


With two matches under his belt since his season-ending surgery to repair a herniated disc in his back, there's very little indication that Murray is anywhere near the type of peak form that has allowed him to become such a consistent factor in Melbourne over the last four years.

“I don’t feel like I’ve lost speed, or strength,” Murray said earlier in the week. “But I will know better when I’m playing matches against the best players in the world. It’s one thing doing all this stuff in the gym and in practice but until I start doing it in matches – that’s where the confidence will come from.”

Unfortunately for Murray, who split two exhibition matches in Abu Dhabi before his short stay in Doha this week, he'll have to endure his trial by fire in Melbourne, because no matter what type of experience he gets in Kooyong, he's going to have to face a whole different animal when he starts playing best-of-five tilts in the grueling heat at Melbourne Park.

Yes, he's done it before, but never before after a surgery, albeit a “minor” one. Murray, remember, spent nearly all his life building that body that his contemporaries likened to a “tank,” and that body took him on an inspirational journey that rewrote tennis' record books.

But after an off-season in which the awards piled up, one in which Murray finally had some time to reflect on his career and the remarkable accomplishments that he's achieved, it's only normal that the man will need a bit of time to puff up and be that same record-smashing tank again.

After his loss to Florian Mayer earlier this week, it's pretty clear that Murray is more likely to next peak in July on his cherished Wimbledon grass, and knowing the wisdom that Murray possesses, and the maturity, it's more likely that he's more focused on a gradual timetable rather than an accelerated one.

As Murray has said himself, he's still learning to play with his post-surgery body. For him to rush or risk a setback at this point in the game would just be plain foolish.

"I feel like I have recovered well from it (surgery), but it's still a process," said Murray, after his exo against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Abu Dhabi last week. "You know, I don't know exactly how I'm going to wake up tomorrow, but today was good in the match."

Does that sound like a player who is ready to win seven matches in two weeks in the oppressive Melbourne heat? Probably not.

More likely for Murray, this year's Australian Open will be a step in the right direction. As he has proven before, things take time with Andy Murray, but be patient and greatness happens.

After Murray failed to protect a 6-3, 3-0 lead against Florian Mayer, he seemed resigned to the fact that time is currently working against him. “Provided I can get myself healthy again – you know I just need to put in the hours on the practice court – the results will come,” he said. “But it might take a bit of time.”

 

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