Who Will Be the Next Maiden Slam Winner?

Juan Martin del Potro broke through in 2009, Andy Murray broke through in 2012. But we want know: who's next?

By Chris Oddo

(March 1, 2013) -- Over the last eight years a sticky state of gridlock has enveloped men’s tennis, making it nearly impossible for male players to break through and win their first Grand Slam title.

For tennis fans this news is nothing new, but for fans of other sports from golf to football to college basketball, such domination rarely, if ever, happens.

While it’s been great for the game--Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have become global icons that have taken the sport’s popularity to new heights, and Novak Djokovic is rapidly following suit--it’s been a nightmare for anybody who wishes to pull a coup. In one sense, it’s been great for tennis to have these larger than life figures clashing in the most intense of rivalries, but it’s also left tennis fans feeling a sense of frustration about those stuck just below the big four.

Only twice in in the last 32 opportunities has anyone other than Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, or Novak Djokovic come away with the coveted hardware at the conclusion of a Grand Slam fortnight, which means that these days maiden Slam winners are about as common as new presidents in the United States. But the grip of tennis’s big four on the rest of tennis might be stronger than the sway that either political party holds over the state of the union.

It took monumental, almost earth-shattering efforts from Juan Martin del Potro and Andy Murray to shake out Grand Slam titles in 2009 and 2012, but those achievements give us hope that others can also rise up.

Now, we want to know: Who’s going to be next?

Eight years is a long time, and the gridlock could be sustained even longer if the big four have their say. Like a traffic jam that never ends, or an endless fiscal cliff that never gets resolved, this gridlock could end up getting pushed on to the next term, and with Djokovic and Murray still only 25 and looking so surreal, maybe it will persist even further.

How long, then, can this Grand Slam hegemony last? Will it be at least another three years before somebody else steps up on the men’s side?

Maybe, maybe not.

Maybe, if you believe that Andy Murray’s ascent has strengthened the big four from the bottom up for years to come. But maybe not if you believe that Roger Federer’s ongoing and inevitable decline combined with Rafael Nadal’s injury struggles has opened a crack in the armor of the world’s top four that might just be big enough for another big-time player to slip through.

If there is indeed a crack in the armor, here’s a look at a few men who might possess the means to notch a landslide victory at an upcoming Grand Slam.

1. Tomas Berdych

The Czech, a former Wimbledon finalist and French Open and U.S. Open semifinalist, is without a doubt the man who possesses the best chance of winning a Slam in the next one to three years. There are a lot of reasons for this: He’s got the experience now, as his three consecutive top ten finishes and first 60-plus win season in 2012 attest. He’s also making steady, albeit slow, improvements with marked consistency. Berdych’s first 26 Grand Slam appearances netted only a single Grand Slam quarterfinal, but he’s been to the quarterfinals in six of his last twelve appearances, including a final and two semifinals, all on different surfaces.

In the past, mental toughness was an issue with the tall, powerfully built Czech, but these days, it’s a strength. He’s been a work in progress for many years, but now it appears that with the confidence that has come from each of his 34 career top ten wins and eight career titles, Berdych might finally possess enough of the necessary courage and belief to go out there and impose his massive game on the rest of the tour week in and week out.

It’s clear that Berdych has the abilities, and at 27 years of age, he’s in his prime years where the confluence of all his prowess, both mental and physical, could add up to a breakthrough Grand Slam for him.

2. David Ferrer

Before those of you who are frustrated by Ferrer’s ineptitude against the big four, particularly his combined 4-30 mark against Federer and Nadal, start to roll your eyes, realize that there are scenarios that could land Ferrer in the French Open final. And if he's to find himself there, who's to say he couldn't get it done?

Judging from the way Ferrer manhandled Andy Murray in the quarterfinals last year at Paris, and keeping in mind that Ferrer is 3-1 versus Djokovic on clay for his career, it’s not altogether impossible to imagine a scenario, due to an upset or two, where Ferrer only has to play one big four member to win a French Open title. If that player were Andy Murray or Novak Djokovic, he might--I repeat, MIGHT--have a chance.

3. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Tsonga has broken through to the semis of a Slam in each of the last three years, the last two at Wimbledon. He’s incredibly clutch in high-pressure matches, and he’s the type of player that can catch fire and become unbeatable, with his massive serve and high-risk ground game that can be good enough to confound pretty much anybody in the sport. At 27, he’s got a two year window to make it happen.

4. That’s all folks!

Sorry, but it’s pretty much impossible to imagine any other male player winning a Grand Slam over the course of the next two to three years. I’ll throw out a few names just for fun, with the idea that if any of these players makes remarkable, consistent progress over the course of the next year or two (and I mean REMARKABLE), it’s possible.

1. Kei Nishikori 2. Milos Raonic 3. Nicolas Almagro (on clay only) 4. Grigor Dimitrov

Got an opinion? Leave it in the comments.

(Photo Credit: Mark Peterson/ Corleve)