By Chris Oddo | @TheFanChild | Thursday January 27, 2022

And then there were two: as we await what is sure to be a fascinating Australian Open women’s singles final between World No.1 Ash Barty and No.27 seed Danielle Collins, let’s take a closer look into the matchup.

Barty v Collins Head-to-Head: Barty leads 3-1

Madrid, 2019, R32: Barty d. Collins 6-1, 1-6, 6-1
Roland-Garros, 2019, R64: Barty d. Collins 7-5, 6-1
Adelaide, 2020, SF: Barty d. Collins, 3-6, 6-1, 7-6(5)
Adelaide, 2021, R16: Collins d. Barty 6-3, 6-4

What’s at Stake

Barty is bidding to become the first Australian woman to capture the title in Melbourne since Chris O’Neil defeated Betsy Nagelsen 6-3, 7-6(3) in the 1978 final. The World No.1 knows a thing or two about making history for her country – she became the first Aussie woman to win Wimbledon since 1980 last year at the All England Club.

Collins, ranked 27, is bidding to become for her first major title in her first major final. The 28-year-old has two WTA titles to her name, both of which came last summer.

Barty’s serving prowess

The-25-year-old Aussie has been serving lights out for a while now, but she has improved that element of her game even more in 2022. She was carrying a streak of 63 consecutive service holds in the round of 16 at Melbourne, but that was stopped when Amanda Anisimova broke her early in the second set of Barty’s 6-4, 6-3 win over the American.

Since then Barty has racked up another 18 consecutive holds.

The Aussie held in over 80 percent of her service games in 2021, but still went into the off-season hoping to make improvements to the shot.

“I just feel really clear on my service games,” she said after toppling Madison Keys in the semis on Thursday. “I have a lot of trust in my game, have a lot of trust in my serve. Even tonight I feel like I gave Maddie a lot of looks at second serves. I didn't quite have my rhythm on the first serve, but when I needed it most it was there. I know I can just throw it up and really trust it, go after my spots and try and get free points and back myself in. If I don't I can back my legs in and run and kind of build pressure without that facet of my game.

“All in all I think it's been a really good serving start to the year, I suppose, but we did do a lot of work on it.”

Collins’ Aggression Will Be a Factor

Collins has been taking the racquet out of her opponents’ hands at the Australian Open, with lethal first-strike tennis off of her serve plus one attempts and her returns. The challenge on Saturday evening will be to do more of the same against a tremendous spot server that will be doing all she can to make Collins uncomfortable.

To succeed Collins will have to do a tremendous job of anticipating, hitting targets and serving. She’ll also hope that Barty has an off day from the service stripe.

The Barty Slice Will Play a Role

Barty’s backhand slice is the wild card in the equation because she’s really the only player that relies on the stroke so much on tour. That means that Collins hasn’t had the chance to see it and play against it for a while – to produce her trademark power, she’ll have to do it from a lower contact point than she has been used to all week. We saw haw badly it threw Madison Keys off in the semifinals. What makes the shot so good from Barty is the depth and the consistency. Those two elements, paired with Barty’s excellent footwork and defensive skills means she is much harder to hit a winner against than the rest of the tour.

Barty’s coach, Craig Tyzzer, says many women don’t realize what they’re in for when it’s time to play her.

“I think it is a point of difference,” he said of the slice. “There's not many girls out there that hit a slice backhand. I think the fact that they don't see it that often and then have to come up against it...

“It's actually quite funny. When you see who Ash has to play, you see them out there practicing someone hitting a slice backhand to them. It's probably a bit late the day before to try to get that right. If you haven't practiced it enough now, you're probably not going to get that right.”

Collins has the benefit of having played four previous matchups against Barty, but she hasn’t dealt with a lot of slice in her first six matches. She’ll need to have solutions and find them quickly.

Hunter and hunger vs the hunted

Collins may benefit from the fact that she’s the heavy underdog, while Barty may just begin to feel the pressure in the final. She hasn’t been tested once this year in Australia – she’s dropped just 21 games in six matches – so if she finds herself in a tussle with the feisty American, Collins might hold an advantage, given that she has come from a set down twice to reach her first major final.

Collins will embrace the tension, and if the match is a tight one, Barty will have to do the same to avoid the upset.