By Richard Pagliaro | Tuesday, March 7, 2023
Taylor Fritz plays to defend his maiden Masters title, Daniil Medvedev aims to extend his winning streak and a slew of contenders see title opportunity in Indian Wells.
Photo credit: Getty
Spotless skies and majestic mountains make Indian Wells one of the most inspiring tournaments in tennis.
Tennis Paradise provides an even more promising picture for top ATP contenders this year.
More: Djokovic Out of Indian Wells
That's because an imposing obstacle is out of the picture at this week's BNP Paribas Open.
For 17 of the last 18 editions at least one Big 3 champion—Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer—contested the Indian Wells final.
This week, none of the Big 3 are in the field as Federer retired at Laver Cup in London last September, Nadal is rehabbing a leg injury that knocked him out of the Sunshine Double and five-time champion Djokovic withdrew on Monday as the unvaccinated 35-year-old Serbian superstar remains unable to enter the United States under current COVID-19 policy.
That means open opportunities for the field.
Here's our Top 5 Takeaways from the 2023 Indian Wells men's draw.
Best Draw: Alcaraz or Medvedev
Novak Djokovic's departure puts Carlos Alcaraz atop the field.
The second-ranked Spaniard should like the view.
Arguably the top-seeded Alcaraz or third-seeded Daniil Medvedev has the best draw of leading contenders, depending on your point of view.
Yes, Medvedev could face a tricky opener vs. either ATP ace king John Isner or Brandon Nakashima. Isner is a 2012 Indian Wells finalist who can scare anyone if he's bombing his wrecking ball serve with abandon. But Medvedev has largely defused that weapon winning all four sets he's played against the towering American. In fact, Medvedev has never dropped more than three games in a set to Isner.
Palm Springs has hardly felt like Tennis Paradise for Medvedev, who is 6-5 lifetime and has yet to surpass the round of 16 in five career appearances at the BNP Paribas Open.
Consider Medvedev is riding the confidence that comes from a 14-match winning streak, including back-to-back-to-back championships in Rotterdam, Doha and Dubai where he snapped Djokovic's 20-match win streak and rolled buddy Andrey Rublev in the final and you have to believe the 2021 US Open champion would like his chances against anyone.
Yes, there are dangerous players in Medvedev's quarter, including Alexander Zverev, Karen Khachanov and 2022 US Open finalist Casper Ruud, who looms as the Russian's quarterfinal opponent if seeds hold true. But the man nicknamed Meddy Bear is serving with conviction and has swept all six sets he's played vs. Ruud. This figures to be Medvedev's breakout BNP Paribas Open. Though winning four tournament titles in a row on three different continents is obviously a big ask for anyone, Medvedev makes his money and ranking points on hard courts. If his body can withstand the rigors of his recent surge, he definitely looks eager to continue riding the winning wave during this Sunshine Double.
Miami Open champion Alcaraz will face either American wild card Brandon Holt or a qualifier in his opener.
The question is: How will Alcaraz bounce back from the right hamstring injury that forced him to pull out of Acapulco and a scheduled lucrative Las Vegas exhibition event?
If Alcaraz is healthy, look for him to do major damage in a draw that could see him face friend and fellow Babolat endorser Felix Auger-Alissime in the quarterfinals with the winner possibly meeting defending-champion Fritz or Rune for a spot in the final.
Former Champions Faced Mixed Bag
There are just three former men's champions in the field: reigning champion Taylor Fritz, 2019 champion Dominic Thiem and 2021 title holder Cameron Norrie.
Playing through the pain of a right ankle strain, Fritz fought off Rafael Nadal 6-3, 7-6(5) in the Indian Wells final snapping the Spaniard’s 20-match winning streak to claim the biggest championship of his career at the BNP Paribas Open. Fritz made history as the first American man since Andre Agassi in 2001 to win Indian Wells.
Playing to defend a Masters 1000 title for the first time, Fritz will need to be sharp from the start.
The fourth-seeded Fritz has a first-round bye and will meet either former Monte-Carlo champion Fabio Fognini or lethal-serving lefty Ben Shelton, an Australian Open quarterfinalist, in his opener.
If seeds hold true to form, Fritz would face seventh-seeded Holger Rune, the Rolex Paris Masters champion, in the quarterfinals with the winner potentially playing either top-seeded Carlos Alcaraz or eighth-seeded Felix Auger-Aliassime or former Miami Open champion Hubert Hurkacz in the semifinals.
Dominic Thiem, who defeated Roger Federer in the 2019 final, has been struggling to find his form. Wild card Thiem has won eight of nine meetings vs. French left-hander Adrian Mannarino, his opening-round opponent. It was against Mannarino at the 2021 Mallorca event when Thiem injured his wrist. The 102nd-ranked Austrian has never been quite the same since that injury.
Don't sleep on Norrie, who has posted an 18-3 record this season, including reaching back-to-back clay-court finals in Buenos Aires, where he lost to Carlos Alcaraz, and Rio de Janeiro, where he out-dueled Alcaraz 5-7, 6-4, 7-5 to collect his fifth career title.
Though Norrie is making the transition from dirt to hard-court the gritty Indian Wells court suits his style: Norrie has won nine of his last 10 BNP Paribas Open matches with his lone loss in that span coming to Alcaraz in the quarterfinals last March.
Four Dark Horses To Watch
We define dark horses as players outside the Top 10 seeds.
(11) Jannik Sinner—If you saw Sinner take the first set, 7-5, from Medvedev in the Rotterdam final before bowing in three, then you saw the potential future of this talented northern Italian. In that set, Sinner played the type of proactive tennis—closing points at net, banging his backhand down the line, pouncing on mid-court balls—he's capable of producing quite effectively. The former Miami Open finalist opens vs. either a qualifier or Richard Gasquet and could meet Italian compatriot Lorenzo Musetti in the third round with a potential clash against Holger Rune as well.
Jiri Lehecka—The unseeded 21-year-old Czech showed the world his aggressive baseline game at the Australian Open where he reached his maiden major quarterfinal. Lehecka knocked off Borna Coric, Christopher Eubanks, Cameron Norrie and Felix Auger-Aliassime to reach the AO quarterfinals losing to Stefanos Tsitsipas. The world No. 47 backed up that magical run toppling fifth-ranked Andrey Rublev in Doha and holding match points vs. Andy Murray for a spot in his first ATP final before losing to miracle maker Murray. Guess who Lehecka will play if he gets past Arthur Rinderknech in his opener? The sixth-seeded Rublev.
(13) Karen Khachanov—The bad news? Since his run to the Australian Open semifinals, Khachanov has lost the only match he played and returns to Indian Wells, where he was crushed in his opener by Jenson Brooksby last March, short on recent match play. Good news: Khachanov, who owns BNP Paribas Open wins over Rublev, Isner and Pablo Carreno Busta, has performed well in the desert in recent years reaching the 2019 quarterfinals. Khachanov opens vs. either Oscar Otte or Laslo Djere and resides in the same quarter as Medvedev and Ruud.
(17) Tommy Paul—One of the most exciting young Americans to watch, Paul has produced the best start to a season in his career. In his last three tournaments, Paul has reached the Australian Open semifinals, the Delray Beach quarterfinals and the Acapulco final where he took out friend and world No. 5 Taylor Fritz in a semifinal thriller. One of the quickest American men around the court, Paul can hammer his heavy kick serve to create open space, make the ball dance with his strokes and is comfortable closing at net. If seeds stay true to form, Paul would play ninth-seeded Hubert Hurkacz in round three. Hurkacz edged Paul 7-5, 7-6 in their lone meeting at the 2021 Rolex Paris Masters.
Grudge Match Coming in Quarters?
Australian Open finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas is poised to make progress from the bottom half of the draw.
The second-seeded Tsitsipas will play either Jordan Thompson or the returning Gael Monfils in his opener.
Tsitsipas possesses the serve, athleticism and all-court acumen to make a deep second-week push—and potentially set up a couple of grudge matches.
If seeds hold true, Tsitsipas would play Rublev in a quarterfinal that would pop with emotion followed by a possible semifinal showdown vs. nemesis and sparring partner Daniil Medvedev.
Last November, Rublev rallied past Tsitsipas 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 to reach the semifinals of the ATP Finals Turin. Afterward, Tsitsipas turned the first question of his post-match presser into tool time suggesting Rublev is a player with limited weapons and implying the better player lost.
"It's a shame. I feel like the better player," Tsitsipas said. "I felt like I could do more with the ball today. I felt like I could just be much more creative. I don't even have to say that. I think it's quite obvious.
"But, yeah, he prevailed with the few tools that he has. He was able to really take advantage of them and win today."
That comment annoyed Rublev's lifelong friend, Medvedev, who jabbed the Greek without mentioning his name expressing his true wish for Tsitsipas in his victory speech in Dubai last weekend.
"I just want to say that I remember not long ago one player says that [Andrey Rublev] has just a few weapons and I was reading this interview and I was like how can you say this?" Medvedev told fans in Dubai and those watching TV coverage around the world. "In my opinion, Andrey is one of the most skillful players on the tour. He just didn't exploit fully his potential yet, but I'm sure he can win Grand Slams.
"Hopefully, he can beat this guy who said it many, many times. I wish this for sure."
Welcome Reunion
Iron Man Andy Murray reunited with Sliderman Gael Monfils on the practice court.
TV Schedule
Oddsmakers Favorites
Oddschecker lists Daniil Medvedev as the favorite at 5 to 2 followed by: Carlos Alcaraz at 13 to 2, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Jannik Sinner, both 10 to 1, Taylor Fritz and Felix Auger-Aliassime.