By Chris Oddo | @TheFanChild | Sunday September 4, 2022

Flushing Meadows, NY—Daniil Medvedev will lose the No.1 ranking after the US Open, due to his fourth-round loss in New York.



The Russian, who fell to Nick Kyrgios in four sets on Sunday night in Arthur Ashe Stadium, will give way to one of three players.

“I'm trying to look good here, but I'm disappointed,” Medvedev said. “Not going to cry in the room, but I'm a little bit disappointed. For a few days I'm going to be just a little bit sad, looking at my phone, my laptop or watching some series.

“But that's motivation, try to do better,” he said. “Obviously it was the last slam of the year. Didn't do well enough. Didn't win in Australia when I had the chance. Didn't get the chance to play Wimbledon. Roland-Garros, lost fourth round. Here, fourth round.

“I should do better. Should get more points if I want to be world No. 1 again.”

Likely Scenarios

Most likely, Rafael Nadal will rise to No.1 next week. If Nadal reaches the final in New York he will return to No.1 regardless of who he faces in the final.

But Casper Ruud and Carlos Alcaraz also have a shot, depending on what happens to Nadal.

If Nadal doesn’t reach the final, Carlos Alcaraz or Casper Ruud have a shot to get to No.1.

Provided that Nadal reaches at least the semifinals, both Alcaraz and Ruud will need to win the title to get to No.1. If Nadal loses in the fourth round, both Ruud and Alcaraz would have to reach the final to get to No.1. If both Ruud and Alcaraz get to the final, the winner would rise to No.1.

For Nadal the equation is relatively simple.

Here’s how he gets to No 1:

1. If he reaches the final
2. If he reaches the quarter-final, and Alcaraz or Ruud don’t win the title
3. If he loses in the round of 16, and Alcaraz or Ruud don’t reach the final.

Here's how Alcaraz can get to No.1:

1. He wins the title.
2. Nadal does not reach the quarter-finals and he loses to the final to someone other than Ruud.

And here's how Ruud can do it:

1. He wins the title and Nadal doesn’t reach the final.
2. Nadal doesn’t reach the quarter-final and he loses in the final to someone other than Alcaraz.