By Richard Pagliaro | Sunday, January 18, 2015
Rafael Nadal meets the media before the 2015 Australian Open.
Photo Credit: corleve.
Each day we'll preview and predict results for four must-see Melbourne matches. Day 1 previews are here.
(3) Simona Halep vs. Karin Knapp
Rod Laver Arena (first match)
Head-to-head: First meeting
Speed vs. power is a central theme here. The 5'11" Italian will try to impose her serve-forehand combination to control the center of the court and make the Romanian move.
Last January, Knapp delivered that combination repeatedly, standing toe-to-toe with Maria Sharapova on the baseline. Knapp pushed the Russian in a three hour, 28-minute thriller before Sharapova finally prevailed, 10-8 in the decider, to reach the Australian Open third round. Halep will make this match about movement and try to drag the slower Italian into the corners.
Halep, who can curl her two-handed backhand crosscourt or drill it up the line, will target the Knapp's weaker backhand wing and force her to hit that shot on the run. The French Open finalist played tight tennis as the No. 2 seed in New York, falling to Mirjana Lucic-Baroni in a nervous U.S. Open third round. Halep says she's better equipped to handle nerves now and looked sharp winning her ninth career title in Shenzhen earlier this month.
The Pick: Halep in 2 sets
Caroline Garcia vs. (27) Svetlana Kuznetsova
Show Court 2 (second match)
Head-to-head: First meeting
Potentially, this opener could provide all-court sparks. Both are gifted athletes who can bang out openings with their first serves and finish points moving forward when they're confident. However, potential can be a loaded label for these two: Both women failed to survive the first round in three of four Grand Slams last season.
When Garcia is landing her first serve, taking the first strike and playing decisive points, she is a threat. Last season, Garcia scored Top 20 wins over Agnieszka Radwanska, Jelena Jankovic, Angelique Kerber, Genie Bouchard, Sara Errani and Venus Williams and pushed No. 1 Serena Williams to three sets in Miami. On the flip side, the 36th-ranked Frenchwoman hasn't won a Melbourne match in four years and is a chronic under-achiever in majors. In 11 Grand Slam appearances, Garcia has reached the third round only once.
Two-time former Grand Slam champion Kuznetsova can be both versatile and very tough to figure out. The 2004 U.S. Open champion can alter her spins to create sharp angles, only to sabotage herself — overplaying the drop shot at times and lapse into defensive postures — at crunch time. Both are seeking their first wins of the season so both should be eager.
The Pick: Kuznetsova in 3 sets
(11) Ernests Gulbis vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis
Show Court 3 (not before 6 p.m.)
Head-to-head: First meeting
Though they are separated by an Outback-sized 133 spots in the rankings, and the inexperienced 18-year-old Aussie has just two Grand Slam matches to his credit, this could get tricky.
Kokkinakis can crack the serve and whip his forehand as he did upsetting No. 25 Julien Benneteau in Brisbane earlier this month. He'll need to hit both shots ambitiously, play aggressively and get off to a good start to get the rowdy Aussie faithful fired up — all of which could conspire to annoy the sometime cranky and combustible Latvian, who doesn't require much prodding to take a leap off the emotional edge.
The explosive Gulbis is capable of hitting through top players. Punishing his serve, pulverizing his two-handed backhand and managing his moods, Gulbis beat fourth-ranked Roger Federer and sixth-ranked Tomas Berdych in succession to reach his first Grand Slam semifinal at Roland Garros last year. But when Gulbis gets twitchy and irritable, he can go off the grid, lose the range on his stiff-armed forehand and grow disinterested.
With four opening-round losses and two career wins in Melbourne, Gulbis hasn't exactly shown a lot of fighting spirit in Oz when the going gets tough. Still, he should be motivated knowing he can gain ranking points here. The first set is vital: Gulbis owns nearly an .800 career winning percentage when winning the first set but is only .220 when losing it. Kokkinakis must serve big and create as many forehand exchanges as possible. If he can do that—
and enigmatic Ernests gets unsettled—the young Aussie has a shot for the upset.
The Pick: Kokkinakis in 4 sets
(3) Rafael Nadal vs. Mikhail Youzhny
Rod Laver Arena (not before 2 p.m.)
Head-to-head: Nadal leads 11-4
The 2009 champion says Grand Slam success demands timing and his lack of match play leaves him short on rhythm and confidence and downplays his chances for a second-week run..
"To feel confident in yourself that you are 100 percent competitive you need to play more than four or five matches in seven months," said Nadal at his pre-tournament press conference. "At the same time, you feel in better shape physically when you are playing matches and have confidence about your movements."
Though Youzhny has not beaten Nadal in seven years, all four of his wins came on hard court, including a four-set victory in the 2006 U.S. Open quarterfinals. The Russian can play all-court tennis and lash his one-handed backhand up the line — a shot he will need to show.
The clever Youzhny has options but ultimately knows he will face a barrage of topspin forehands from Nadal and must hit his backhand cleanly and take the ball early or risk getting dragged into demanding crosscourt rallies. Four of Nadal's last five losses have come to players ranked outside the Top 50, including a stunner to 127th-ranked Michael Berrer in Doha earlier this month. All of that should make Nadal even more vigilant and determined against an opponent he knows very well.
The Pick: Nadal in 3 sets