By Richard Pagliaro | Friday, January 22, 2016
Former finalist Ana Ivanovic faces 2015 semifinalist Madison Keys with a trip to the fourth round on the line.
Photo credit: Mark Peterson/Corleve
Each day we'll preview and predict results for several must-see Melbourne matches. Our Day 6 picks and previews are here.
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(13) Milos Raonic vs. (21) Viktor Troicki
Margaret Court Arena (Second match)
Head-to-head: Raonic leads 2-1
January champions collide for a trip to the second week.
Raonic beat Roger Federer to win his eighth career title in Brisbane. Troicki fought off Grigor Dimitrov to successfully defend his Sydney championship.
The Canadian's serve—the missile first serve and mammoth kicking second serve—is basically a blur when he's blasting it. Raonic has not dropped serve in straight-sets sweeps of Lucas Pouille and Tommy Robredo.
Troicki can crank up the heat on serve too, and the Serbian's two-handed backhand is a sturdier shot than his opponent's backhand. Raonic is moving better, managing his backhand side with more care and playing with clarity and confidence and should get past a dangerous opponent.
The Pick: Raonic in four sets
(10) John Isner vs. (18) Feliciano Lopez
Hisense Arena (Second match)
Head-to-head: Tied, 3-3
Two authoritative servers on a fairly fast track figure to produce another tie break festival.
Ten of their 19 sets together have gone to an extra session with Isner winning six of those 10 tie breakers. Both will try to attack the opponent's backhand; look for Lopez to use his slice force the big man to bend low.
Isner leads the tournament with 57 aces, Lopez is third in the ace race with 55.
The left-handed Lopez will want the curling slider serve on the ad side to test Isner's backhand return. Lopez has beaten Isner in both of their Grand Slam meetings, posting a rugged five-set win at the 2012 Australian Open and a four-set victory at the 2014 Wimbledon that featured three tie break sets.
Working with coach Justin Gimelstob, Isner has tried to employ forward-thinking to his game. He's adopting more aggressive court positioning and trying to put his wide wingspan and lanky 6-foot-10 frame to use attacking net more.
Will Isner stick to the script knowing Lopez's legs may be screaming for reprieve after his colossal 7-6 (2), 6-7 (4), 7-6 (3), 6-7 (8), 6-4 victory over Guido Pella in round two?
How much energy will the 34-year-old Spaniard, who piled on the mileage winning a doubles match with Marc Lopez, have left in the tank? Isner took an injury timeout during his second-round win over Marcel Granollers and we know Long John's history of epic five-setters in majors.
Isner has not dropped a set in this tournament, but he's 1-8 in his last nine Grand Slam matches vs. Top 20 opponents. Isner owns bigger weapons, Lopez possesses more variety. This is a more assertive Isner, but if Lopez is not depleted from his marathon he can prevail in what should be another tie break serving shoot-out.
The Pick: Lopez in five sets
(15) Madison Keys vs. (20) Ana Ivanovic
Rod Lave Arena (First night match)
Head-to-head: Ivanovic leads 1-0
Forehand fueled first-strike tennis is the central theme, but staying power could determine the outcome.
Both women will try to contol rally conversations with their declarative forehands.
Ivanovic arrived in Melbourne winless in two tune-up tournaments. She hasn't dropped a set yet, though she hasn't faced a Top 100-ranked opponent either. Ana has defused American power players before. She upset Serena Williams at the 2014 Australian Open, sometimes driving the ball deep down the middle to deny the world No. 1 angles. She may try to jam the ball into Keys' hip and tie up her two-handed backhand.
Keys has battled a left elbow injury and may still be banged up. That's why her 6-7 (3), 6-3, 6-3, comeback win over Yaroslava Shvedova was instructive. She wasn't playing her best, but still pressed forward winning 10 of 10 trips to net over the final two sets. Keys is the more explosive mover and generally plays with more spin on all of her shots, though Ivanovic will use the slice to change the pace.
Ivanovic can play inspired tennis Down Under. The 2008 finalist has reached the round of 16 in three of the last four years and is a major fan favorite in Melbourne.
Serve and return are the two most important shots in the game. Keys' varied and combustible serve is more dangerous and delivered with more margin than Ivanovic's flatter slice, which can go askew when tension mounts and her toss drifts.
The Pick: Keys in three sets