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By Richard Pagliaro | Friday, June 30, 2017

 
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Two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova warmed up for Wimbledon winning Birmingham.

Photo credit: Christopher Levy

The Wimbledon women’s field presents plenty of opportunity and the prospect of a new world No. 1.

World No. 2 Simona Halep and third-ranked Karolina Pliskova both begin Wimbledon with a shot to surpass the 2016 runner-up for the top spot. 

Here’s our quarter-by-quarter analysis of the draw.

Top Quarter

The top-seeded Kerber could face significant challenges to survive the first week.

Kerber could collide with Lucie Safarova in an all-lefty third-round clash with the winner potentially facing 2015 Wimbledon finalist Garbine Muguruza for a quarterfinal spot.

The good news for Muguruza? Her flat strikes play well on grass and she’s only defending second-round points so she should feel much less stress than she did in her Roland Garros defense.



The bad news?

Set aside her 2015 final appearance and the powerful Spaniard has managed just two wins in her three other SW19 appearances.

Ninth-seeded Agnieszka Radwanska, who opens against former mixed doubles champion Jelena Jankovic, seventh-seeded Svetlana Kuznetsova and Olympic gold medal champion Monica Puig are among the other notable names in the top quarter. Radwanska is at her best on grass, but she’s struggling through one of her worst seasons in years and has not reached a quarterfinal since her run to the Sydney final in January.

It’s been a decade since Kuznetsova’s last appearance in the Wimbledon quarterfinals, however if the 32-year-old Russian can assert her aggression and avoid periods of moody play that can plague her at SW19 she can make a quarterfinal return.

Top Quarter Prediction: (32) Lucie Safarova vs. (7) Svetlana Kuznetsova


Second Quarter

Empowered by her run to the Roland Garros semifinals on her least favorite surface, Karolina Pliskova should reach the second week at SW19 despite a history of disappointing results. Pliskova, who hasn’t surpassed the second round in five Wimbledon appearances, will face Caroline Wozniacki in the Eastbourne final tomorrow.



The pair could square off in the Wimbledon quarterfinals though Wozniacki, who opens with 2016 Wimbledon doubles finalist Timea Babos, could have to get by a dangerous power player—12th-seeded Kristina Mladenovic or 24th-seeded CoCo Vandeweghe—in the fourth round.

Australian Open semifinalist Vandeweghe owns the heavy serve and attacking game that plays well on grass: She was a Wimbledon quarterfinalist two years ago. A lingering foot issue combined with the fact Vandeweghe split with coach Craig Kardon and hired former Wimbledon champion Pat Cash as her new coach, makes the volatile Vandeweghe an uncertain danger.

“It's hard to tell where Coco is now. She's like a yo-yo,” ESPN analyst Chrissie Evert said. “She's been so up and down. She will play a great match. You think, She can really win, win Wimbledon. Then she'll play a match you think she could lose first round. I think she's up and down.

"The fact that she's changing the team now, Craig is no longer with her, you kind of wonder if that might have an effect on her tennis and on the stability of her game right now. But certainly a very dangerous player, especially on the grass.”

Pliskova can still be vulnerable to the low ball, but the WTA ace leader owns the powerful game to win Wimbledon.

Second Quarter Prediction: (3) Karolina Pliskova vs. (24) CoCo Vandeweghe

Third Quarter

Fourth-seeded Elina Svitolina has won a WTA-best four titles this season, but her baseline precision has been thwarted on grass in the past. Svitolina owns just two victories in four Wimbledon appearances and could fall at the first hurdle to Australian Ashleigh Barty, who showed her grass-court skills beating Muguruza en route to the Birmingham final where she pushed Petra Kvitova to three sets.



If you were one of the people writing off 37-year-old Venus Williams as a major contender, then you got a wake-up call with Williams inspired run to the Australian Open final.

The 10th-seeded Williams is the oddsmakers’ fifth favorite to win Wimbledon this year—17 years after she defeated Martina Hingis, Serena Williams and Lindsay Davenport in succession to raise the Rosewater Dish for the first time.

Williams’ wicked slice serve stays low on lawn, her flat strikes and swing volleys enable the five-time champion to control the center of the court against virtually any opponent—if she’s healthy and controlling her drives.

“I think Venus has as good a chance as anybody on the women's side to win,” Hall of Famer Pam Shriver said. “I think about three years ago when she was still figuring out how to manage her Sjogren's syndrome, she played Kvitova in the second (round) that year Kvitova won the Wimbledon, the match of the tournament.

"If Venus can tap into her grass court game where she uses the slice out wide on the deuce side, gets up 15-Love almost every service game, uses her net play, she can be as good of a grass court player as there is out there.”

Eighteen years after she surged into the Wimbledon semifinals, veteran Mirjana Lucic-Baroni rode her flat strokes to the Australian Open final four. Lucic-Baroni and big-serving Madison Keys, who has struggled since returning from left wrist surgery, are both threats in this section if they get hot. Both of Keys’ titles have come on grass.

Former Wimbledon junior champion Jelena Ostapenko faces the challenge of trying to back up her break-through Slam at Roland Garros with an extended Wimbledon run. Ostapenko’s daggers down the line should play better on grass than they did even on clay.

“If the power of Ostapenko won on red clay, certainly (she has) the power has to win on grass,” Evert said. “That's even more magnified.”

The question is: Can she strike with the same fearlessness and aggression and withstand the pressure of playing as a major champion?

“How is that French Open win going to affect her?” Evert said of Ostapenko. “How many times have we seen this before? A first-time Grand Slam winner, then they fizzle. Will she be able? Is she so young, sort of free and easy and aggressive, that she's just not even going to think about it, she's going to go on to that next level and keep hitting out with that freedom. That remains to be seen how she's going to react from winning the French Open. But she certainly has the power.”

Third Quarter Prediction: (10) Venus Williams vs. (13) Jelena Ostapenko


Fourth Quarter

Two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova opens with Johanna Larsson and could play sixth-seeded Johanna Konta in the fourth round—if the British No. 1 can recover from the back injury she suffered crashing to the Eastbourne court on Thursday.

In just her second tournament of the season, Petra Kvitova won the Birmingham title showing the first strike attack that helped her win The Championships in 2011 and 2014. Will she continue a three-year championship cycle?

“For her to win the tournament in Birmingham was awesome,” Evert said. “To me, she is the best grass court player that is playing at Wimbledon. Seeing that there are not too many, if any, grass court specialists in the tournament, she is the one that I think everybody has to look out for.”

Wimbledon semifinalist Elena Vesnina, former No. 1 Victoria Azarenka, who has a tough opening-round assignment against talented American CiCi Bellis, and 21st-seeded Frenchwoman Caroline Garcia are all notable names in the bottom quarter.

Second-seeded Simona Halep will try to shake off the disappointment of her French Open final loss with another extended Wimbledon run. The 2014 semifinalist reached the last eight last year and if Halep can play proactive tennis and serve consistently, she can make a quarterfinal return.



The victim of a horrific home invasion last year, Kvitova suffered stab wounds to her left hand that required a three-hour plus surgery in December to repair ligament and tendon damage. While Kvitova confesses she still lacks feeling in one finger, she looks energized and happy to be back on her beloved grass.

"I didn't want a break, but as you said, somebody took it from me," Kvitova said. "And it wasn't my truth, but I'm always trying to look positive on the things, so everything bad is for something good. So I feel that I am maybe love tennis even more than before because I know what it means for me.

"And I always know why I'm playing this sport and always love competing, and I missed the fight and I missed adrenaline during the matches. So I'm happy that I have it back."

The sentimental favorite could emerge as the feel-good story of the fortnight.

Fourth Quarter Prediction: (11) Petra Kvitova vs. (2) Simona Halep


 

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