By Chris Oddo | Friday July 13, 2018
Wimbledon, England—And then there were two. After a tumultuous two weeks that saw seeds scattered, fans at Wimbledon will be treated to a blockbuster final between the two most in-form grass-court players on the women’s tour. Not bad considering all the hand-wringing about week one upsets to Top 10 seeds such as two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova and defending champion Garbiñe Muguruza.
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Now that the dust and grass clippings have settled, we await what could prove to be an historic coronation for Serena Williams, who will bid to tie Margaret Court at the top of the all-time Grand Slam titles list with 24 and could win her eighth Wimbledon title to pull within one of left-handed legend Martina Navratilova in women’s singles titles at SW19.
Kerber will play for a slice of history as well. She can become just the fourth active WTA player to own more than two major titles, and the first German to win Wimbledon since Steffi Graf in 1996.
One would naturally tend to tab Williams as the favorite in this match, just as most did in 2016 when Williams notched a 7-5, 6-3 victory to claim her 22nd major title. In that fortnight Williams went the final three matches without dropping serve and even though Kerber was at the height of her powers at the time she could not snatch a set from Williams on Centre Court.
Two years later much has changed. Williams is less than a year removed from the birth of her daughter Olympic, and while the experience of becoming a mother has changed her in many ways it has not dampened her enthusiasm for the sport or quelled her competitive fire. That said, in just her fourth tournament of the season, Williams admits that she’s still a work in progress and hoping to take that next step forward in Saturday’s final. Meanwhile Kerber is in fantastic physical shape and the German will no doubt be looking for ways to drag Williams into a physical battle that might allow her to exploit any fitness disparity between the two.
It’s certainly a possibility for Kerber, but Williams will benefit from being on grass, the fastest surface that will allow her to earn free points on serve and shorten points at all other instances. The American no doubt knows that the most important shot in this match will be her serve, and she’ll aim to deliver a performance for the ages—something she has done routinely in major finals where she owns a 23-6 record.
In the 2016 final Williams cracked 13 aces and won 38 of 43 first-serve points. She saved the only break point she faced despite winning just 24 of 63 baseline points. We should expect a similar balance, with Kerber strong from the baseline and Williams strong from the service stripe, and anything either player can do tip the balance in their favor could make a significant impact on the final outcome.
Let’s look at some relevant numbers before we go any further:
50 – Percent of Unreturned first-serves that Serena Williams has hit, compared to 27 percent from Kerber.
47 – Percent of return games won by Angelique Kerber, compare to 34 percent by Williams.
7 – Number of Wimbledon titles won by Serena Williams, which means she’s bidding to move past Steffi Graf on the all-time Wimbledon title list.
12 – Number of times that a Williams sister has won the Wimbledon title since 2000, out of 18 possible chances.
[25] Serena Williams vs. [11] Angelique Kerber
Head-to-Head : Williams leads 6-2
Angelique Kerber is one of just five players to have ever defeated Serena Williams in a Grand Slam final, and on Saturday she will bid to become just the second player to do it twice, and the first not related to Serena.
To do it Kerber will have to find ways to make the match more of a baseline contest, but it won’t be easy because Williams vaunted serve is designed to allow her to earn free points and to swoop in behind short replies. It’s something that Serena has done to perfection throughout her career, and she has also used a world-class return to do the same. It will be important for Kerber to serve well, and she certainly has the capability to do that. In their last Wimbledon final Kerber was broken just twice and she managed to win 15 of 22 second-serve points. If she can produce numbers equal or better than that on Saturday she just may have a shot to stay with Williams.
But it hasn’t been a great tournament from the service stripe from Kerber. The German has been broken 16 times in six matches and if she doesn’t find ways to hold serve with regularity in the final, she’ll find herself in real trouble. Williams is the best server in the history of the women’s game, and we suspect she’ll have the serve dialed in on Saturday with one win separating her and the Margaret Court’s record of 24 Slam titles.
Kerber will likely benefit from facing a classic player like Jelena Ostapenko in the semifinals, but Williams’ attack is so much more consistent and reliable that it may not truly help her. As always, Kerber will have to use her wheels and keep points alive with her stunning defense, but she mustn’t get too comfortable in a defensive role. The grass rewards first-strike tennis—if opportunities present themselves she’ll have to take them.
Kerber has played solid tennis all season, and she’s the only player to reach the second week at all three majors to be played thus far, but the German is up against a woman that many believe is the greatest player—and the greatest big-match player—of all time. For Kerber nothing short of a magical, inspired performance will do.
And given the prowess of Williams on the grass surface, and more specifically at Wimbledon’s Centre Court, even that may not be enough.
Pick: Williams in two