By Chris Oddo | Sunday September 2, 2018

Welcome to Five Thoughts, our little island of insanity, where we wax poetic and try to make sense of the tennis world. Today we're looking back on the first week of the U.S. Open with an eye on the business end of the draw.

Zverev and Svitolina Still Not Over the Hump

Another Slam, another setback. That’s been the story with Sascha Zverev and Elina Svitolina. We know each is primed for a Grand Slam breakout. We know they do incredible things at every other level of tour-level tennis. And yet, here we are again, wondering why they couldn’t get deeper at the most recent major.

Here’s the only fact that matters: The pair have played 39 majors combined (Zverev 14 and Svitolina 25) and neither player has ever reached a Slam semifinal.

Something doesn’t compute here.

Zverev has three Masters 1000 titles and nine titles overall and he’s just 21. Svitolina owns a 12-2 lifetime record in finals as well as four Premier 5 titles (1 tier below Grand Slam). Both should be able to crack the Grand Slam code. Both can’t quite seem to do it.

Svitolina reached the round of 16 in New York but was served a third-set bagel by Anastasija Sevastova on Day 7. Zverev fell to 34-year-old Philipp Kohlschreiber in third-round action. It was the German’s first week with Ivan Lendl as coach and it is way too early to tell what fruit that relationship will bear.

It’s also too early to write either Zverev or Svitolina off. Their time is gonna come, but US Open disappointment means we’ll have to wait until 2019 at the very least for these two to make their long overdue mark at the majors.

There is a Fire and it Never Goes Out. It's Called Serena

Today I watched Serena Williams give every ounce of her being to her tennis. Across the sport, both men’s and women’s, I don’t know if there is a player who will sacrifice as much for a win. And I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a player own the stage the way that Serena Williams does it. That’s what makes her such a legend. Williams’ greatness isn’t just about sheer numbers. It’s about so much more than her 23 majors or her six U.S. Open titles—it’s the about ownership and confidence and pride and belief and fire.

If you want to make a comparison on the men’s side go ahead. Take Rafa and stack his passion, desire and gusto next to Serena’s and I don’t know who wins—you’ve got one heck of a contest.

Circling back to my original thought: I’m here to praise Williams for her unmatched competitive fire. She has the power, on a tennis court, to change the course of the match with a gesture. Not a shot. A gesture. She roars and the scoreboard ebbs. She pumps a fist and points pile up.

Why You Should Hedge Your Nick Kyrgios Bets

There are times that Nick Kyrgios has you right where he wants you. He’s got you praising him, your jaw is down by your kneecaps after he has flown through the air to hit a filthy forehand return. He easily beats a great player and is not even trying. He half volleys and turns trick shots like he was born to hoist trophies. All of these things make you WANT HIM TO BE GOOD. And he his good, but he’s rarely good enough, and these days we aren’t settling for rarely good enough.

The market is flooded with promises, but many of them turn out to be empty. The equation works in the early chapters when there’s the promise of potential. But it can sour when the promises keep coming but the bills never get paid.

So here’s my advice: sell a few Kyrgios shares, even if it has to be at a small discount. Just don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Zero Grand Slam quarterfinals since 2015 Australian Open tells a troubling story. Box office is one thing, but it definitely isn’t everything. And the ultimate box office is the trophy kiss, without that there’s too much promise and not enough prowess.

I’m not saying you can’t love what Kyrgios does, fawn over him, or even hope for him. Just don’t expect him to get deep in a major, because that clearly isn’t what he’s about right now. If he was, with that serve and that physique and that deft touch and that power, he’d have done it, right?

Don’t be mistaken: I’m not saying Nick Kyrgios will never win a major or never reach a major semifinal. He can. He should! But this summer he’s proven to be better at being a cheap imitation than being the real thing.

A List of Men Who Could Win the U.S. Open Singles Title

Djokovic, Novak
Nadal, Rafael
Federer, Roger

I’ve been playing this game since the moment that Novak Djokovic hoisted his 13th major trophy at Wimbledon in July. It’s been fun. And the funniest thing is: Nothing has changed. I had Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal in a dead heat as U.S. Open title contenders, with Roger Federer the second tier just a hair back, and a gaggle of—about five or six—players in the third tier, which is actually more of a “let’s see who can make the semis” tier, that consists of Juan Martin del Potro, Marin Cilic, Kevin Anderson (since sent packing), and maybe as a complete longshot, John Isner or Kei Nishikori in the fourth tier.

So what have we learned?

That the more things change the more they stay the same. Djokovic and Nadal look brilliant. Federer is looking great but he’s still believed to be a tick below the co-favorites—not necessarily a bad thing.

Cilic is alive and so is Del Potro. Perhaps one of those two could cause a shock but it doesn’t feel likely. Things could change if Nadal and Thiem go five sets or, less likely but still possible, if Federer and Djokovic put each other through an emotional thriller in the quarterfinals that leaves the eventual semifinalist a shell of his week one self.

Nishikori could also potentially become a factor in the Cilic quarter, and could get into a semi against Djokovic or Federer (no offense, Millman or Sousa, we’re just being hypothetical here).

There are still shock scenarios that could emerge. But for my money it looks just like it did in mid-July. A Nadal v Djokovic final is looming large once again in NYC.

Go Get it Sloane

That’s the mantra for defending U.S. Open champion Sloane Stephens. She doesn’t use the word “defend” with her coach Kamau Murray—instead they say “go get it” and that is what Stephens has been doing for four rounds.

Stephens won 17 of the final 24 points to finish off Elise Mertens in style on Day 7. Her 6-3, 6-3 was a really relaxed and steady effort that featured upticks in form each and every time Stephens needed it. There were also splashes of the vintage counterpunching from the 25-year-old, who has now won 11 consecutive matches in New York City.

Stephens has done everything we can expect from a defending champion—she is stepping up at the right time on the biggest of stages in New York.