By Chris Oddo | Thursday September 6, 2018
And then there were four. The men’s singles semifinals are set to go down at the U.S. Open on Friday, and we’re expecting fireworks from start to finish with two mouthwatering matchups, beginning at 4 PM Eastern.
Without any further ado, let’s break these babies down…
Rafael Nadal v Juan Martin del Potro
Head-to-Head: Nadal leads 11-5, and 5-1 at majors
Key Stat: Nadal has already played 15 hours and 54 minutes in his five matches at this year’s U.S. Open.
Key Stat #2: Del Potro is bidding for his 10th career victory over a World No.1.
The 2018 U.S. Open certainly has a survival of the fittest motif running through its core, and that tenet will be tested on Friday when Rafael Nadal takes the court for his sixth match of the tournament. The Spaniard has spent nearly 13 hours on court in his last three matches alone (Del Potro has spent less in all five of his contests), and the big question heading into his 17th career meeting with Del Potro is: how has he recovered?
Nadal has had two days since his epic four hour and 49 minute victory over Dominic Thiem on Tuesday night, so most believe that he’ll be in good shape by match time, but it took him a while to get the juices flowing in that aforementioned quarterfinal matchup with Thiem, so the jury is still out.
Del Potro, on the other hand, has sauntered through the draw, losing just one set and managing himself quite well. He really hasn’t had to empty the tank in New York at all, so if the situation calls for it, expect him to pull out all the stops against Nadal.
The matchup certainly favors the Spaniard, as he can really exploit his leftiness by taking Del Potro out wide on the ad side with his swinging serve, which then opens up the court and allows the ever merciless Nadal to put the Argentine on the proverbial string. It’s imperative for Nadal to execute this tactic and also to have a good clutch serving day because Del Potro is sure to earn his fair share of break points.
From an emotional standpoint, Del Potro stands to be a really dangerous player—he loves playing in New York, a city that saw him make his greatest conquest—and he should be extra pumped up with his own personal cheering squad screaming from the rafters at Arthur Ashe Stadium on Friday. Add to that the extra motivation that comes with falling to Nadal in three of the last four majors, including a heartbreaker at Wimbledon in July, and we should see a pretty motivated Del Potro.
The Tower of Tandil is one of the few players out there that can ride his emotions to the highest highs; just look what he did at the 2016 Rio Olympic Games, back when he didn’t even have a topspin backhand.
That backhand should be firing on Friday, and it is the key to Del Potro’s hopes. He can’t defeat Nadal unless he is lethal off of both wings, so this is where the match will be won or lost. Nadal is too solid tactically to leave any stone unturned, and if Del Potro is shy in any way, shape or form about hitting his backhand with full intensity, he’ll fall short against Nadal for the fourth time in the last five majors.
If Del Potro is amped up and lets adrenaline guide him, he must might have enough in the tank to stun the defending champ and reach his first major final in nine full years. But the odds, the history, and the tactics favor Nadal to get through.
Pick: Nadal in Four
Novak Djokovic v Kei Nishikori
Head-to-Head: Djokovic leads 14-2
Key Stat: Djokovic has won 13 straight over Nishikori, dating back to Nishikori’s win here in New York over Djokovic in the 2014 U.S. Open semis.
Key Stat #2: Nishikori is 36-59 against the Top 10 lifetime, but 6-1 against the Top 10 at the U.S. Open.
Novak Djokovic, much like he did at Wimbledon, appears to be peaking at the right time in New York. The Serb had some struggles early in the hardcourt season, where he lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas in Toronto, and needed to muddle through four consecutive three-setters in Cincinnati before dispatching Roger Federer in the final, but now the 13-time major champion is firmly in fifth gear, with plenty of gas in the tank. In short, he’s found his timing, his footwork and his intensity while all the while surviving the conditions. The hardcourt is once again looking like his domain and Djokovic looks ready to ride to back-to-back major titles; it is going to take some serious work to stop him.
Does Kei Nishikori have that type of magic in him at this stage of his career? He certainly has shown some brilliant tennis in 2018, and here at the U.S. Open he has played his best tennis of the season to reach his first Grand Slam semifinal in two seasons. Now the biggest test awaits Nishikori, and he'll be guided by fond memories as it is a test that he passed with flying colors back in 2014 when he took down Djokovic in four sets to reach his first and only Grand Slam final.
But that win began a prolonged losing streak for Nishikori against Djokovic, and he has since been unable to solve the Serb.
Nishikori has lost 13 straight to Djokovic, including three in 2018, the last a four-setter at Wimbledon. It’s not an ideal matchup for Nishikori because many of the things he does so well are the things that Djokovic does better. Nishikori is a great baseliner and he can strike from both wings with purpose, but can he do it early enough in rallies and often enough to throw Djokovic off track? On the slower hardcourts in New York, rallies can be grueling affairs, and the player that thinks the clearest and probes for weaknesses most effectively will come out on the winning end.
In this kind of battle, it’s usually Djokovic. His returns open the door for him to take control, and he’s a better spot server and tactical baseliner than Nishikori. So it will be up to Nishikori to show a level of commitment to changing direction earlier in rallies and selecting shots that keep the Serb off balance.
It can be done, and has been in the past, but Djokovic’s head-to-head tells the story of a near impossible task for Nishikori. He’ll need to execute to perfection and sustain a high level for over three hours to win this match. He was able to do that in the quarterfinals against Marin Cilic, but Djokovic has the tools that Cilic lacks. He’s a brick wall and on this slow hardcourt one needs a sledgehammer to hit through him.
Pick: Djokovic in four