By Richard Pagliaro | Thursday, January 30, 2020
Sofia Kenin defeated Garbine Muguruza 6-0, 2-6, 6-2 in their lone prior meeting in Beijing last September.
Photo credit: Mark Peterson/Corleve
Melbourne Park isn’t a mountain range, but Sofia Kenin and Garbine Muguruza have scaled steep personal peaks to reach this Australian Open final.
Both stand one major step from completing historic climbs.
Halep: Muguruza Can Regain No. 1
Muguruza has soared to major mountain tops on court and scaled Mount Kilimanjaro offseason. The two-time Grand Slam champion is bidding to become the third unseeded AO champion in Open Era history—and the first unseeded woman to rule Melbourne since Serena Williams in 2007.
Contesting just her 12th career Slam, the 21-year-old Kenin is the youngest AO finalist since Maria Sharapova beat Ana Ivanovic in the 2008 battle of 20-year-olds. Should Kenin capture her first Grand Slam title in her maiden major final, she is projected to rise to world No. 7 surpassing Serena Williams as the highest-ranked American woman.
Improbable finalists inspire through their journeys in Oz.
The final is a classic case of dictator vs. disruptor.
Former world No. 1 Muguruza will want to command the center of the court and dictate rallies driving the ball into the corners, while Kenin will aim to take the ball on the rise, probe both sharp and short angles to stretch the Spaniard and extend rallies.
Look for three key factors to decide the final:
Backhand Exchanges
The final boasts two of the best two-handed backhands in the sport. In fact, Both women are so strong on the backhand, on balls down the middle you’ll sometimes see them step around the forehand to crack the two-hander. The woman who wins the crosscourt backhand exchanges—and is bolder banging the backhand down the line at crunch time—will likely prevail.
Managing Nerves
Both finalists should be skittish given Grand Slam pressure final and the AU$4 million champion’s check on the line. When Muguruza gets tight her flat strikes find the net more frequently. She’s got to manage the margin of her shots, establish net clearance early and accelerate through her swings. Nerves can cause Kenin frozen feet: she sometimes stops moving her feet when she’s under extreme stress. Kenin should come out bouncing on her toes exaggerating fast feet to emphasize getting off the mark early—and she’ll want to keep the ball moving side to side to limit Muguruza’s ability to control the center of the court and play grip-and-rip tennis.
Pressure Serving
Facing sniper returns can put both women under pressure on serve. Holding early is essential. Muguruza has hit 29 aces—second highest in the tournament—while Kenin has won 58 percent of her second-serve points, which is among the best in the event. Though the 6-foot Spaniard can serve bigger than the 5-foot-7 Kenin, their average serve speeds in the semifinals were nearly identical. The taller Muguruza is typically sharper hitting the wide serve, particularly on the ad side where Kenin tends to serve down the T. Serving with variety and backing up the second serve is essential.
Here's our AO final preview and prediction.
No. 14 Sofia Kenin (USA) vs. Garbiñe Muguruza (ESP)
Head-to-Head: Kenin leads 1-0 scoring 6-0, 2-6, 6-2 win at 2019 China Open in Beijing
2020 Record: Kenin 8-2; Muguruza 10-1
Best AO Result: Kenin 2020 final; Muguruza 2020 final
Career Slam Final Record: Kenin first final; Muguruza 2-1
Career Three-Set Record: Kenin 27-20; Muguruza 78-59
Sofia Kenin on Garbiñe Muguruza: “I've played Garbine in Beijing. It was a tough match. She's playing some really good tennis right now. She's had some great wins. She's not easy. She's really aggressive.”
Garbiñe Muguruza on Sofia Kenin: “It wasn't a very good match from my side. I think she played good [in Beijing]. It was the first time we played, so it was good to have that match as a reference. It is going to be a hard match. It’s the final of a Grand Slam. Doesn't matter who is your opponent.”
Why Kenin Will Win
Fearless Fighter
Sofia Kenin possesses the rare quality of turning adversity into adrenaline to fuel her fight. The 14th-seeded American fought off two set points in both the first and second sets stunning world No. 1 Ashleigh Barty and silencing vocal Aussie fans on Rod Laver Arena. Some players carry a chip on their shoulder, Kenin’s entire career has been built on defying doubters. The more skeptics said she was too small to make it on the pro tour the harder it drove Kenin to disprove them. If the crowd favors Muguruza, that will empower Kenin. The 5-foot-7 Kenin’s sheer defiance and appetite for the fight will help her become the shortest AO women’s champion since 5-foot-5 ¾ Justine Henin in 2004.
Photo credit: Mark Peterson/Corleve
Ground Game
Though Kenin is often typecast as a counter-puncher, the truth is she’s at her best straddling the baseline, taking the ball early and cracking drives into the corners. At her best, Kenin has an almost Hingis-like ability to take the ball on the rise and rob opponents of reaction time. The baseliner is quick off the mark, owns fine footwork and is adept hitting off the front foot. Kenin is a better mover, has a higher shot-tolerance and will want to create running rallies to displace Muguruza from the center of the court and make the Spaniard fire flat drives on the stretch. Kenin is the more consistent player and will want to drain errors from the streakier Spaniard at crunch time.
Conviction on Critical Points
Recognizing and responding to stress points is one reason Kenin is contesting her first major final in just her 12th Grand Slam appearance. Kenin has won 58 percent of her second-serve points, which is among the best in the tournament. The Rod Laver Arena Court rewards Kenin’s quickness and ball-control skills. Kenin tied Barty for most hard-court wins in 2019, she beat Muguruza in their lone clash on hard court four months ago, she’s superb playing off pace and will get plenty of it vs Muguruza. And though Kenin’s the higher seed, the two-time Grand Slam champion’s track record in Grand Slam finals makes her the favorite and therefore Muguruza is likely to feel more pressure.
Why Muguruza Will Win
First Serve, First Strike
Winning Grand Slams can be complicated, but Muguruza possesses a simple blue print for success: whip the wide serve to open the court and hammer the first strike to put Kenin on the defensive. The serve and return are the two most critical shots in major finals and Muguruza has been more dominant in both areas. Muguruza can sting the serve with more authority—her 29 aces is second among tournament leaders—and she leads the tournament with 29 breaks of serve. The 6-foot Spaniard can hit more areas of the service box more comfortably and has served with more variety in this tournament. Kenin prefers serving down the T on the ad court and Muguruza will be sitting on that serve.
Photo credit: Mark Peterson/Corleve
Major Presence
Making a Grand Slam final debut can be so terrifying it can reduce even veterans to tears. Francesca Schiavone revealed she was so tight she broke down sobbing before playing the 2010 Roland Garros final. Kenin will understandably feel jittery contesting her first Grand Slam final and Muguruza will feel the nerves too. But the 26-year-old Spaniard can draw on her experience edge of playing three Grand Slam finals. Muguruza won’t play this final on hope: she knows she has the game to win Grand Slam finals because she’s already done it. Muguruza holds an impressive record as the only woman to beat both Serena Williams (2016 Roland Garros) and Venus Williams (2017 Wimbledon) in a Grand Slam final. Those Slam successes should help her cope with the inevitable major stress she’ll face Saturday night.
Explosiveness & Elevation
If the finalists were boxers, Kenin would be the technician who wears opponents down with crisp combinations, while Muguruza would be the knockout artist. If she holds her nerve, Muguruza will win this final because she’s more dangerous from more areas of the court—and owns jolting point-ending power, while Kenin needs to construct points more methodically to create her openings.
Facing Wimbledon champion Simona Halep, one of the game’s fastest players and premier returners, Muguruza slashed 10 aces, saved 10 of 13 break points and showed courage moving forward under pressure. Muguruza won 20 of 30 trips to net vs. Halep and can impose her all-court acumen to stifle Kenin. Muguruza will win this match because she’s played tougher competition to get here. While Kenin scored massive wins over world No. 1 Barty and 15-year-old phenom Coco Gauff, the American has scored just one Top 30 win en route to the final. Muguruza has knocked off four Top 30 opponents—No. 3 Halep, No. 30 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, No. 10 Kiki Bertens and No. 5 Elina Svitolina—without surrendering a set in this four wins.
Prediction
It’s very tempting to pick Kenin prevail in an upset. Not only do I believe she can shock the world and take the title—I think she’s energized and empowered silencing skeptics who give her little to no shot. Defiance fuels Kenin just as it did Connors, Hewitt and Capriati, who all carried a chip on the shoulder as power pack badge of never backing down.
The feisty Kenin exudes the kind of emotional intensity Bianca Andreescu displayed in her drive to the US Open title. Given the fact Kenin just beat Muguruza on a hard-court in Beijing and she’s coming off her third career victory over a reigning world No. 1, her confidence should be sky-high despite the fact she’ll be facing the most severe professional pressure of her life.
Muguruza was phenomenal under pressure vs Halep in the semifinals. The two-time Grand Slam champion competed courageously, faced her fears, took greater risk and played assertive, arhythmical tennis.
“It's tough to play against her because she doesn't give much rhythm,” Halep said of Muguruza. “She can miss few balls in a row, then she can make unbelievable shots.”
Reuniting with coach Conchita Martinez and reasserting her explosive style, Muguruza has turned this tournament into a statement of identity. She’s reclaiming her role as an aggressive baseliner boldly willing to call the shots against anyone on any surface under any circumstances.
It’s a fascinating final because Kenin craves pace and will get plenty of it from Muguruza, the question is can Kenin hold the baseline against a potential barrage and can Muguruza continue to keep firing away with the menacing intent and change direction with the accuracy she’s shown so far?
Muguruza has stood her ground, commanded the center of the court and knocked out a slew of contenders charging into her first Melbourne final.
More importantly, Muguruza has twice served out Grand Slam finals against future Hall of Fame players. If she can hold her nerve, trust her aggressive instincts and let her shots fly, I believe she will prevail in a tight test that will put her three fourths of the way to the career Grand Slam.
The Pick: Garbine Muguruza defeats Sofia Kenin in three sets