By Chris Oddo | @TheFanChild | Wednesday January 10, 2024

 

Andrey Rublev is 0-9 in major quarterfinals, but at 26 the Russian still has time to engineer a Grand Slam breakthrough.

Photo Source: Getty

It’s January 10th, and in tennis terms that means it is almost time for the first Grand Slam of the season. Tennis, like no other sports, sprints into one of its most important events on the calendar right out of the gate, and it is the job of handicappers everywhere to try and make sense of the first week of tennis so that we may better understand who the real favorites are in Melbourne.



Luckily there's a man named Novak Djokovic who wins the tournament most every year, which helps... but Djokovic has a bit of an issue with his wrist at the moment. It's a big story heading into Melbourne, and it's at the top of the list you'll find below...



Other than that, what have the first ten days of the 2024 tennis season taught us, if anything?

Let’s dive in with ten quick thoughts….

Rafa’s Not Ready Yet

For a brief moment in time last week, it looked like King of Clay Rafael Nadal might actually be a contender to make a deep run at the Australian Open. I admit, I was fooled for a second there. With two sparkling wins under his belt, 37-year-old Nadal had successfully navigated his first two competitive matches in nearly a year. Then, disappointment struck again. He squandered three match points against hard-nosed Aussie Jordan Thompson, injured his lower body (yet again, though not the hip flexor injury that was surgically repaired last year) and the rest was the type of news that has become all too familiar: Nadal pulled out of Australia, citing a minor muscle tear, and vowed to rest up and return to the tour as soon as possible.

Expect Nadal to be ready again for the clay. And believe that his determination to play well on the clay had a lot to do with his decision to skip the Aussie Open.

For now, we just have to hope for the best and be satisfied with the fact that Rafa can still play at an extremely high level when his body is right.

Novak Djokovic has a wrist issue, but history says he’ll be fine in Australia

What should we make of Novak Djokovic’s wrist issue, and the fact that the injury slowed his roll at United Cup, where he was defeated by inspired Aussie Alex de Minaur? Hard to say, but if we use recent history as our guide, we can see that Djokovic’s last two titles in Melbourne have come while the Serbian legend was dealing with difficult injuries.

In 2021, Djokovic had an abdominal tear, but he suffered through it and won his ninth Australian Open title. In 2023, a hamstring injury slowed down the Grand Slam king, but not enough to keep him from earning his tenth Aussie Open title.

This year, it’s the wrist, and we don’t know the severity of the injury at this point. All we do know is that Djokovic is a master at overcoming these types of obstacles. There will come a day when Djokovic – now 36, going on 37 – will be short of superpowers, and start to crumble under the weight of fatigue. It may come later this month in Australia, but would you bet against the 24-time major champion?

The WTA’s Top 4 is Locked and Loaded

2024 is setting up to be a year of heavy lifting on the WTA Tour. At the top of the rankings is a determined Iga Swiatek, who will try once again to break away from the pack and expand her Grand Slam empire. But that will be a difficult task, particularly away from Swiatek's beloved clay, where Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka show no signs of weakening. Both were tremendous last week in Brisbane, even if Rybakina’s win over Sabalenka in the final was a tad lopsided. Throw in surging Coco Gauff, who appears destined to follow through on her breakthrough 2023 season and you have a season of high drama, and high quality, incoming.

Speaking of Gauff…

Many intelligent tennis people spoke of the fact that Gauff may have a different perspective when it comes to dealing with becoming a Grand Slam champion for the first time, due to the fact that she has been under the media spotlight ever since she stormed onto the Grand Slam scene at the age of 15. That appears to be true. She is unbothered by her success and hungry for more. Gauff, with two hands still firmly at the wheel, spent the bulk of her offseason shoring up her serve, and started the season with an impressive title run in Auckland.

United Cup Can Be As Grueling as a Slam

Just ask Alexander Zverev, who did double duty on multiple occasions to lead Germany to its first major team tennis title since 1993. United Cup provided fans with some high drama in the first week, as Poland and Germany pulled out all the stops to try and take the title. Zverev’s battle with Hubert Hurkacz, followed by a high-stakes doubles clash that featured Iga Swiatek and Hurkacz against Zverev and Laura Siegemund, provided a nice Olympic preview. One thing that never fails: get players with the flag on their backs and they’ll do whatever it takes to win.

Maybe not the best thing a few days before a Slam but for the viewing public it’s a win.

Tennis Powers that Be are Listening to the Players

What a pleasant surprise it was to read a joint message from the ATP and WTA Tours about the fact that, collectively, a decision has been taken to limit late finishes on tour in 2024. The players, and the public, clamored for change last season and, just like that, something got done? Could it be that tennis powers are more willing to acquiesce to player needs now that the specter of Saudi investment in the sport lingers over the tours? The tours also announced that they'll be doing a full strategic review of tennis balls across the tour, hoping to create a more stable playability that leads to less injuries among the players.

Grigor Dimitrov, Future Grand Slam Champion?

Imagine, if you will, a tennis landscape without any BIG 3 dinosaurs roaming the forest and gobbling up all the nutrition. By 2025 this could be the reality in the men’s game, and if it is the reality, why can’t a player like Bulgaria’s Grigor Dimitrov be a Grand Slam contender? Not saying that 32-year-old Dimitrov would suddenly have a great shot at winning one if Djokovic and Nadal were officially done, more making an observation that Alcaraz, Sinner and Medvedev – even if you combine them – don’t pack the same punch as 24-time Grand Slam champion Djokovic. Combine that with the resurgence of form of Dimitrov, who won his first title since 2017 last week in Brisbane and you just never know.

Moms Rock, and so do Comebacks

Naomi Osaka made her return to the sport, winning a match and playing well at Brisbane, despite a round of 16 loss to Karolina Pliskova. It’s feasible to think that Osaka, 26, can return to top form. Whether that top form will be good enough to compete with the current status quo of the Top 4 on the WTA Tour is another story. Nevertheless it’s great to see Osaka, as well as former Grand Slam champs Angelique Kerber and Emma Raducanu, back on tour. They all add a layer of intrigue to the first Grand Slam of 2024, and make the draw party on Thursday even more enticing.

There’s also the continued comeback of Elina Svitolina, who represents the battalion of mothers on tour at the moment, and is an inspirational figure because of her Ukrainian roots and her steadfast support of the cause. Svitolina reached the final in Auckland and will be a threat to go deep in Australia.

Hard to say if Caroline Wozniacki, another mother (of two) on the comeback trail, is in position to make a run at Australia, but she did so at the US Open, with very few matches under her belt.

With Osaka, Svitolina and Wozniacki flying the mom flag in Melbourne, the Happy Slam will be even happier in 2024.

Unseeded Player to watch at Aussie Open?

It won’t be long before Frenchman Arthur Fils starts being seeded at Slams. This year he just missed the cut with a ranking of 35, which means he is a dark horse candidate. Anybody who has watched the young Frenchman blossom over the last year, as his ranking has soared over 200 points, knows he has a bright future.

Mirra Andreeva caused quite a stir at the Slams last year, winning a match on her debut at Roland-Garros (third round), Wimbledon (fourth round) and the US Open (second round). Next comes the 16-year-old World No.47's Aussie Open debut. She’s a name no seed will want to see across from them when the draw is released.

Rublev, Overlooked?

He’s widely adored on tour, as a player with a warm, ingratiating personality, and a funny. quirky charm. But what about Andrey Rublev the tour de force that is a title-gobbling juggernaut? He captured his 15th ATP title in Hong Kong last week, and while Rublev is known for his shortcomings late in the majors (as is evidenced by his 0-9 lifetime record in quarterfinals), perhaps there is a breakthrough looming? He’s only 26, getting better every year, and Rublev will be ready to pounce if he gets the right opportunity to go deeper in a major.

History often repeats itself, but we shouldn’t consider Rublev doomed because he has lost his first nine major quarterfinals, however bleak that record seems.