It's a Big Four Reunion at Indian Wells

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It's a Big Four Reunion at Indian Wells

By Chris Oddo

(March 5, 2013) -- The four biggest names in men’s tennis will compete for the same title since Wimbledon 2012 at the 2013 BNP Paribas Open, and after yesterday’s draw ceremony revealed that Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal could meet in the quarterfinals of a tournament for the first time in the history of their storied rivalry, enthusiasm has gone from palpable to bristling.

The buzz isn’t just due to the fact that the big four is in attendance; it’s also attributable to the fact that each elite, card-carrying member of the big four has a lot to play for, both in terms of points and prize money and in terms of confidence going forward into 2013.

Without any further ado, here’s a quarter-by-quarter breakdown of the men’s draw:

Novak Djokovic’s Quarter:

A quick glance at the ATP rankings reveals what we’ve all known – either consciously or subconsciously – for the last two years. Novak Djokovic is the best player in the game right now, bar none.

Off to a 13-0 flyer in 2013, the Serb takes an 18-match winning streak into a relatively easy quarter of the draw that features 8th-seeded Jo-Wilfried Tsonga as the next highest seed. In reality, every draw is an easy draw for Djokovic the way he plays on hard courts, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be tested. He could meet Grigor Dimitrov in round three, and that match has the potential to entertain, but there likely won’t be any serious competition for Djokovic until he does face Tsonga in the quarters.

But there’s no guarantee that that match will even materialize. Tsonga could face Mardy Fish in the third round, and either Milos Raonic or Marin Cilic in the round of 16 if the seeds hold.

Early Sleeper Match: Possible second-round tilt between Jack Sock and Sam Querrey would be huge for American fans.

Pick: Djokovic

Murray’s Quarter:

There won’t be a Djokovic-Murray final like there was in Australia, but odds are that the two hottest players over the last 9 months will meet in the semis. Murray, who has reached the final of the last three Grand Slams he’s played, will bid for his first Indian Wells title and he’ll also make a play for the No. 2 spot in the ATP rankings, as Roger Federer is within clear striking distance for the Scot.

It won’t be a cakewalk for the World No. 3, however. He could face the dangerous Kei Nishikori in the round of 16 and the even more dangerous Juan Martin del Potro in the quarterfinals. If he gets through—no guarantee, as the Scot hasn’t passed the second round at Indian Wells since 2010—he’ll then likely get another crack at Djokovic.

Two Awesome Possible Third-Rounders to Watch:

Jeremy Chardy vs. Juan Martin del Potro in a rematch of their Australian Open battle, which resulted in one of the biggest wins of the Frenchman's career, and Kei Nishikori and Alexandr Dolgopolov, in what could be a wildly entertaining matchup of two ultra fast, ultra powerful players.

Pick: Murray

David Ferrer’s Quarter

Tomas Berdych was drawn into David Ferrer’s quarter, and many feel that’s great news for the Czech. But is it really? Berdych has lost five of his last six to Ferrer, including getting blasted by the Spaniard on a hard court in Davis Cup last year. If Berdych is to reverse course in his head-to-head with Ferrer, he’ll have to reach the quarters first, and if he does, he’ll have to come up with a huge win against a player who has owned him since 2006.

Berdych is clearly capable of getting it done, but then again, so is Ferrer.

Neither big-name player has been past the quarterfinals at Indian Wells, and players like Jerzy Janowicz, Richard Gasquet, Gilles Simon, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and, who knows, maybe even Bernard Tomic, will be doing their best to ensure that it stays that way.

Early-Round Tilt to Watch:

Bernard Tomic-Thomaz Bellucci, round 1. If Tomic wins, his possible second-round match against Richard Gasquet would also be heavily anticipated, as would a possible third-rounder against Jerzy Janowicz.

Pick: Berdych

Roger Federer's Quarter

Having Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in the same quarter is sort of like a meteor shower: rare, beautiful, and worthy of lots of space in newspapers and blogs. And if they meet there will surely be plenty of cosmic debris in the form of grounsdtrokes, struck at unusually high speeds.

This is a big tournament for Federer, probably even bigger for him than it is for Nadal, because hard court is Federer’s domain and because the Mighty Fed has suffered a few early losses (by his standards) in his last two 500-pointers in Rotterdam and Dubai.

Federer could face stiff competition early on in the form of Denis Istomin in the second round, his new nemesis Julien Benneteau in the third round, and either Stan Wawrinka or John Isner in the round of 16. He’ll likely weave his way through this maze, but in doing so Federer will need to be careful that he doesn’t expend too much energy prior to his possible quarterfinal with Rafa.

Roger absolutely blasted Nadal last year in the Indian Wells semis, but Nadal is playing with a lot more joy and a lot less expectations a year later. Nadal could face Ryan Harrison in the second round, Mikhail Youzhny in the third and Janko Tipsarevic or Andreas Seppi in the round of 16.

Early-Rounders to Watch:

Possible second-round tilt between Marcos Baghdatis and Andreas Seppi, and possible second-rounder between Stan Wawrinka and Roberto Bautista-Augut. Wawrinka and Isner, should they meet in the third round, should be a good one also.

Pick: Federer

Semis: Murray over Djokovic, Berdych over Federer

Final: Berdych over Murray

(Photo Credit: Reuters)