By Richard Pagliaro | Friday, June 28, 2019
Novak Djokovic is the oddsmaker's favorite to defend Wimbledon for the second time in the last four years.
Photo credit: Rob Newell/CameraSport
Suffering is a prerequisite for Grand Slam success, says Rafael Nadal.
Riding into Wimbledon empowered by his record-extending 12th Roland Garros crown, Nadal faces a punishing path to his first Wimbledon final since 2011.
More: 5 Takeaways From Wimbledon Ladies' Draw
Still, all roads seem to lead us to Episode 40 of Fedal with Roger Federer, who was elevated ahead of the second-ranked Spaniard to the No. 2 seed, on a semifinal collision course with Nadal for the second straight Slam.
The Big 4—Novak Djokovic, Federer, Nadal and Andy Murray—have combined to capture 16 consecutive Wimbledon crowns.
Former No. 1 Murray, who will play doubles with Pierre-Hugues Herbert, predicts that streak will continue.
"I think the winner will come from those three," Murray told the media in London. "I guess it’s possible that some of the guys with huge serves could potentially go on a run and there will maybe be some upsets early on.
"If those guys are fit and healthy and get through the first few rounds, I would expect one of them to come through."
Oddsmakers agree with the two-time Olympic gold medal champion.
Oddschecker lists Djokovic, Federer and Nadal as the top three favorites to win Wimbledon followed by Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev, Milos Raonic and Marin Cilic.
Our Top 5 Takeaways from the Wimbledon Men's Draw.
Nadal's Nightmare
Aiming to attain the ultra-rare Roland Garros-Wimbledon sweep for the third time, Nadal didn't exactly receive a soft-landing spot in the grass field.
The two-time Wimbledon champion opens against Yuichi Sugita then could face nemesis Nick Kyrgios in what would be a blockbuster second-rounder five years after Kyrgios shocked Nadal at SW19.
Kyrgios saved three match points toppling Nadal, 3-6, 7-6(2), 7-6(6), in their most recent meeting in Acapulfo
There is no love lost here with Kyrgios telling Ben Rothenberg in the No Challenges Remaining podcast he was annoyed by Nadal's comments that the Aussie lacks respect for his opponents.
“He’s my polar opposite, and he’s super salty,” Kyrgios said of Nadal.
Of course, we've seen Robin Soderling trash-talk Nadal on court at Wimbledon and Fabio Fognini get in the king of clay's face in a heated clay-court clash and in both cases Nadal responded taking his snarling spin and menacing intensity to levels they could not match.
Kyrgios’ mood swings are as expansive as his serve. He can veer from disinterested to devastating—sometimes in the space of a single game. If Kyrgios commits to competing and this match comes off it should be intense.
Champion’s View
Novak Djokovic has to be thrilled Nadal wound up in Federer’s half of the draw.
On the surface, the four-time champion has a clear path to his sixth Wimbledon final.
The world No. 1 has to be alert from the start. Djokovic opens against German veteran Philipp Kohlschreiber, who upset the Serbian on Indian Wells’ hard court in March and took a set from him on the clay of Monte Carlo in April.
Djokovic swept Kohlschreiber 4, 4 and 4, in the Wimbledon first round four years ago.
Dig deeper in the top quarter and there are dangers for Djokovic here. Australian Open semifinalist surprised Djokovic at the Rogers Cup last August and is a potential quarterfinal opponent.
Eighteen year-old Canadian sensation Felix Auger-Aliassime is making his Wimbledon main-draw debut and could face the top seed in the fourth round. John McEnroe calls the 19th-seeded Canadian a future world No. 1 and current No. 1 Djokovic a freakish athlete who has translated his hard-court game to this generation's grass.
"I think he's benefitted by the fact that the grass courts are much more similar to the other courts now," McEnroe said of Djokovic. "It's a different game. The bounce is much better. I think it's better, but you don't see him serving and volleying. It's not as if he's altered his game.
"He's more or less playing the same way he plays on the other surfaces. So if you throw in the fact that the courts have slowed down, if you asked all these players, the ball sits up more. He's an incredible athlete, so he's going to adjust anywhere. The guy is an amazing athlete. He's like a human backboard."
No. 11-seeded Daniil Medvedev can be a maddening opponent and owns the flat drives that play well on grass. Djokovic fought off Medvedev in four sets at the Australian Open in January before the Russian gained a measure of revenge with a Monte-Carlo upset of Djokovic in April. They could meet in the quarterfinals.
Fed's Flow Chart
Roger Federer rose to his record-extending 10th Halle title and sets his sights on a ninth Wimbledon championship.
Federer should enjoy a relatively trouble-free first week. The 37-year-old Swiss meets Lloyd Harris in the first round with 27th-seeded Lucas Pouille, his first possible seeded opponent.
Though 14th-seeded Borna Coric, who beat Federer in Halle last year, is in the Swiss' quarter along with John Isner, runner-up to the 20-time Grand Slam champion in Miami, it's tough to see Federer faltering in the bottom quarter of the draw.
Grass rewards Federer's athleticism, all-court acumen, improvisational skills, his control varying the slice and his willingness to close at net. The first week could be a launching pad for the 2017 champion, who has contested Wimbledon finals in three of his last five SW19 appearances.
Demolition Men
Volatility thrives in the second quarter of the draw.
It's home to three of the top five leaders in the ATP ace race—2016 finalist Milos Raonic, fifth-seeded Alexander Zverev and 2019 tour ace leader Reilly Opelka.
Additionally, wild card Feliciano Lopez, fresh off sweeping singles and doubles titles at Queen's Club, is a dangerous floater in this section. Lopez's lefty slider serve plays well on lawn.
One of the few players who can play classic serve-and-volley tennis, the 37-year-old Spaniard has won four of his seven career titles on grass and is a three-time Wimbledon quarterfinalist contesting his record-extending 70th straight Grand Slam.
Keep an eye on 10th-seeded Russian Karen Khachanov, who made the Roland Garros quarterfinals earlier this month, and reached the round of 16 at The Championships last year. Khachanov has reached the fourth round or better in three of his last five majors.
SW19 Stress Tests
A tough spot for 2018 runner-up Kevin Anderson.
The fourth-seeded South African has been hampered by a right elbow injury that's limited him to 12 matches. Anderson opens against dangerous serve-and-volleyer Herbert in a rematch of the 2015 Winston-Salem final, which the former all-American from Illinois won, 6-4, 7-5.
Five years ago, Grigor Dimitrov toppled Andy Murray to reach the Wimbledon semifinals and took a set from Novak Djokovic before bowing.
Now, troubled by a cranky shoulder and creaky confidence, the 48th-ranked Dimitrov is trying to stay relevant.
The good news: Because Dimitrov lost to Stan Wawrinka in the opening round of the 2018 Wimbledon and US Open, he can only gain points here.
The bad news: If Dimitrov wins his opener he could face 19th-seeded Felix Auger-Aliassime, who just bounced the Bulgarian out of Queen's Club. Even if Dimitrov gets by that match he's still boxed in with world No. 1 Djokovic standing as a likely fourth-round foe.
First-Rounders To Watch
No. 5 Dominic Thiem (AUT) vs. Sam Querrey (USA)
No. 13 Marin Cilic (CRO) vs. Adrian Mannarino (FRA)
No. 12 Fabio Fognini (ITA) vs. Frances Tiafoe (USA)
No. 27 Lucas Pouille (FRA) vs. Richard Gasquet (FRA)
Taylor Fritz (USA) vs. Tomas Berdych (CZE)
No. 19 Felix Auger-Aliassime (CAN) vs. Vasek Pospisil (CAN)