By Richard Pagliaro | @Tennis_Now | Monday, March 4, 2024
Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz, world No. 1 Novak Djokovic and a returning Rafael Nadal all face different paths in a challenging Indian Wells draw.
Photo credit: BNP Paribas Open Facebook
A sky-high summit preceded the Indian Wells draw.
Rivals Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal reunited aboard the same flight from Spain to Los Angeles.
More: Richard Evans Q&A
World No. 1 Djokovic and Nadal could cross paths again in the Indian Wells semifinals.
The BNP Paribas Open draw was conducted today.
Carlos Alcaraz is defending men’s champion and Elena Rybakina is reigning women’s champion.
Here are our Top 5 Takeaways from the men’s draw.
Novak Djokovic’s Draw: Room to Rise
Denied entry into the U.S. last spring due to his unvaccinated status, Novak Djokovic returns ready for launch.
Competing in Palm Springs for the first time since 2019, Djokovic is playing for a record-setting sixth BNP Paribas Open championship to breka the record he shares with Roger Federer.
The top-seeded Serbian, who tuned up for Indian Wells before enthusiastic fans at his UCLA training session, should enjoy the view from the top of the field.
Djokovic opens against 69th-ranked Aussie Aleksandar Vukic or a qualifier with his path to the final featuring these potential opponents:
3rd Round: (30) Tomas Martin Etcheverry
4th Round: (14) Ugo Humbert or (17) Tommy Paul
QF: (9) Casper Ruud or (8) Hubert Hurkacz
SF: (4) Daniil Medvedev or (7) Holger Rune or Rafael Nadal
It’s a manageable draw for Djokovic, who owns a 50-9 Indian Wells record and figures to be fired up for his return.
Accosting Alcaraz
Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz could face turbulent test on opening weekend.
The second-seeded Spaniard opens against a talented young opponent—either Matteo Arnaldi or Luca Van Assche—followed by a potential third-round showdown vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime.
Though Alcaraz stopped Auger-Aliassime, 6-4, 6-4 in the 2023 Indian Wells quarterfinals, the Canadian has won three of their four meetings overall.
Should Alcaraz reach the fourth round he could face either Nicolas Jarry, who toppled the Wimbledon winner on red clay in Rio last month, or 15th-seeded Karen Khachanov.
Alcaraz could face a quarterfinal clash with either the man who defeated him in the Australian Open, Alexander Zverev, or red-hot Aussie Alex de Minaur with the winner potentially facing AO champion Jannik Sinner in the semifinals.
Best Draw: Jannik Sinner
Empowered by a 15-match winning streak, Jannik Sinner could well ride the winning wave deep in the desert.
The Australian Open and Rotterdam champion will face either Aussie Thanasi Kokkinakis or American Marcos Giron in his opener followed by a possible third-round meeting vs. 26th-seeded Jan-Lennard Struff and a potential fourth-round clash against 2023 US Open semifinalist Ben Shelton.
Should Sinner go deep into the second week, he’d possibly play either fifth-seeded Andrey Rublev or 11th-seeded Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals and second-seeded Alcaraz in the semifinals.
Given Sinner has dropped just four sets this season, has won 10 of his last 11 matches against Top 5-ranked players, has beaten Medvedev four times in a row and defeated Djokovic in three of their last four meetings and enters this event ranked a career-high No. 2, you have to like his chances of making a deep run in the desert.
Rafa’s Return
The king of clay returns for what may well be his farewell to Tennis Paradise.
Rafael Nadal opens against big-serving Milos Raonic on Thursday night in what should be an electric encounter.
No. 7-seeded Holger Rune awaits the winner.
The 22-time Grand Slam champion Nadal is a three-time Indian Wells singles champion and two-time doubles title holder alongside coach Marc Lopez.
Playing his second tournament of the season and possibly his last hard court event until the summer, Nadal could face Taylor Fritz in a rematch of the 2022 final if both reach the fourth round.
Dark Horses to Watch
We’re defining Dark Horses as players outside the Top 10 seeds.
No. 13 Grigor Dimitrov—A 2021 Indian Wells semifinalist and 2022 quarterfinalist, Dimitrov has been playing dynamic tennis this season. The former world No. 3 opened the season winning his first title in more than six years in Brisbane and has reached semifinals or better in three of four tournaments in 2024.
(WC) Jakub Mensik—The 18-year-old Czech unleashed a jolting serve and biting two-handed backhand in his inspired run through qualifying to the Doha final, including wins over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Andy Murray, Andrey Rublev and Gael Monfils. The teenager suffered a leg injury in his Dubai opener and it’s asking a lot of him to back up Doha with an extended desert run in his Indian Wells debut, but the man nicknamed “Menimal” owns massive weapons, played fearless tennis in Doha and can threaten if he’s healthy.