By Richard Pagliaro | Saturday, January 30, 2016

 

Novak Djokovic, who owns a 6-2 edge over Andy Murray in Grand Slam matches, is playing for his record-tying sixth Australian Open title.

Photo credit: Mark Peterson/Corleve

Australian Open Men's Final
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (2) Andy Murray
Rod Laver Arena
Head to Head: Djokovic leads 21-9

The Happy Slam is a hyperactive track when the world's top two collide for the fourth time in the Australian Open final.

Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray were born a week apart, grew into junior rivals and make the most of roaming room on Rod Laver Arena collaborating on some eye-popping exchanges. Both men are chasing history.

Federer: Don't Ask Stupid Question

Reigning champion Djokovic can equal Roy Emerson's record by capturing his sixth Australian Open title, and 11th Grand Slam championship.

"It's a possibility for me to make history, which is of course another great imperative for me," Djokovic said. "These are the kind of matches that you work for. These are the kind of occasions that define you as a tennis player. I'll try to do my best obviously and get my hands on that trophy again."

Four-time finalist Murray can pin down a place in tenacity history by becoming the first man in the Open Era to win a Grand Slam title after losing four finals at the same major. Murray has already tasted major success in Melbourne: He was in the support box snapping photos when older brother Jamie Murray and Brazilian Bruno Soares won the men's doubles title on Saturday.

"I have a very good shot on Sunday if I play my best tennis," Murray said. "I need to do it for long enough to have a chance. I'm aware of that. I don't think many people are expecting me to win on Sunday. I have to just believe in myself, have a solid game plan, and hopefully execute it and play well."

Sustainability and second serve are keys to the final.

Murray knows he can produce the quality required to beat Djokovic, the question is can he sustain that lofty level against a dominant world No. 1 whose had his number since their junior days?

Djokovic plays every shot with more spin, which gives him more margin of error and more access to angles in running rallies.

The top seed has exerted his second-serve strength to command this rivalry. The Serbian's second serve is both faster and sharper then Murray's slice second serve, which sometimes sits near the center of the box.

In a beautifully ruthless performance, Djokovic outclassed Murray winning their most recent meeting in the Paris Masters final last November. Ravaging return games, Djokovic won 20 of 31 points played on Murray's second serve, earned break points in seven of the Scot's nine service games and broke four times.

To prevent that punishment, Murray must sustain a first-serve percentage, mix his service patterns and attack his second serve with more ambition.

Murray did exactly that denying all nine break points he faced in the deciding set of his 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 victory in the Montreal final last summer, snapping an eight-match losing streak to Djokovic.



Riding a 20-match Grand Slam winning streak into the final, Djokovic has looked invincible, but hasn't been impenetrable.

Lithe Frenchman Gilles Simon shrewdly took some pace off, alternating some soft-ball drives with faster, flat strikes down the line to disrupt Djokovic's timing. Simon drew an astounding 100 unforced errors pushing the champion to five sets in the fourth round. An exceedingly clean ball striker, Djokovic makes 100 errors in a match about as often as you see bottled water from the Yarra River sold on the grounds of Melbourne Park.

Since surviving that unruly test, Djokovic has dismantled two aggressive baseliners—No. 7-seeded Kei Nishikori and third-seeded Roger Federer—in succession extending his winning streak to 14 matches since falling to Federer at the World Tour Finals last fall.

Here are three reasons why each man can take the title followed by our final prediction.

Why Murray Will Win

Versatility
In a straight-up baseline battle, Djokovic wins because he is more balanced and explosive off both wings. Murray's best weapon is one he doesn't always fully employ: versatility. A standout doubles player, the Scot is more skilled in the front court, a more creative finesse player and is a smooth transition player. Murray must use all of it to displace Djokovic from the baseline and make it an all-court match.

Fuel for Final
A work-out warrior, Murray is one of the fittest men in the game. He can pour every piece of energy into this match because his offseason begins when the final ends. Murray is taking February off as wife Kim is expecting the couple's first child in the coming weeks.

Power of Perseverance
Angelique Kerber's conquest of world No. 1 Serena Williams reminds us that the persistence to grind away at a dream and the courage to take your best cut when the moment arrives is empowering. Murray knows this, too. The Scot played some of his most free-flowing tennis amid the most intense pressure of his career by defeating Djoker in the 2013 Wimbledon final—the last time Murray beat Djokovic in a major.

Why Djokovic Will Win

Major Mastery
Forget about Djokovic's 21-9 edge over Murray and the fact he's won 14 of their last 15 meetings. The most significant stats in this rivalry are Djokovic's 6-2 advantage in their Grand Slam meetings and the fact the Serbian is 16-1 in his last 17 matches against Top 10 opponents. Contesting his fifth straight major final, Djokovic is operating in a different stratosphere than the rest of the pack.

Center Command
Strength up the middle makes Djokovic the world's best player and a major obstacle for opponents. Djokovic commands the center of the court, he attacks the forehand down the middle with more authority and angle and he's been better taking charge in neutral rallies forcing Murray to counter on the run. Combine Djokovic's control of the center of the court with his lock-down defensive skills and it makes Murray try to win points from lower-percentage positions on the edges.

Closing Power
The physical punishment Murray has incurred trying to test Djokovic in baseline rallies has seen him fade in the latter stages of their Grand Slam meetings. Djokovic dispensed a bagel in the final set of his 7-6 (5), 6-7 (4), 6-3, 6-0 triumph over Murray in the 2015 Melbourne final and has consistently opened up his shoulders and wore the Scot down exerting closing power. If the final goes the distance, the champion will be ready: Djokovic has won his last six five-set matches and owns a 26-8 record in five-setters.

"(Djokovic is) a great front-runner," Federer said after his semifinal loss. "He starts swinging freely. Usually does it towards the end of the match, obviously when he's in the lead."

The Pick: Djokovic in four sets